To The Moon

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ upcoming fiscal Q3 2025 earnings is scheduled for release after market close on Thursday, October 30, 2025.

The core narrative for this report will be a test of whether explosive Q3 growth in crypto trading volume can translate into durable profits, or if it's being offset by margin pressure and fee compression.

Key Analyst Estimates (The "Beat/Miss")

This is the baseline for the initial stock reaction. Wall Street is expecting a very strong quarter, driven by the resurgent crypto volatility and altcoin rally seen from July to September.

• Consensus EPS: $1.06 per share (compared to $0.62 in Q3 2024)

• Consensus Revenue: $1.70 billion to $1.74 billion (up ~44% year-over-year)

A "beat" or "miss" on these two headline numbers will drive the immediate after-hours price movement.

Summary of Q2 2025 Earnings (Reported July 31, 2025)

The Q2 2025 earnings report was a classic "mixed" quarter that demonstrated the core challenge of investing in Coinbase. The headline numbers were wildly misleading, while the underlying operational metrics revealed weakness.

The Headline "Beat" (The Misleading Part)

Coinbase reported a massive GAAP Net Income of $1.4 billion. This appeared to be a huge beat, but it was almost entirely due to non-operational, one-time items:

• A $1.5 billion unrealized gain on strategic investments, primarily from their stake in Circle (the issuer of USDC) following its IPO.

• A $362 million gain on their own crypto-asset investment portfolio.

The Core Business "Miss" (The Real Story)

The market correctly ignored the paper gains and focused on the actual business, which missed expectations across the board. The quarter (April-June 2025) was defined by low crypto market volatility, which is a worst-case scenario for Coinbase's transaction-heavy model.

Here is a snapshot of the key operational metrics:

Key Takeaways from the Q2 Results:

• Transaction Revenue Collapsed: This was the biggest red flag. Transaction revenue fell 39% from Q1 2025 as total trading volume plummeted 40% to $237 billion.

• Retail Users Stayed Home: Consumer trading volume, the company's highest-margin segment, fell 45% sequentially. Low volatility means fewer reasons for retail users to trade.

• Subscription Revenue Was the Bright Spot: The $655.8 million in recurring revenue from staking, custody, and stablecoins (USDC) was a strong point, proving this part of the business is more durable.

• One-Time Expense: The company also took a $307 million charge related to a "data theft incident," which further hurt operating income.

Market Reaction: The stock was flat or fell post-earnings. Investors completely dismissed the $1.4 billion in net income, proving that the market only cares about the health of the core, recurring business, not one-time investment gains.

The Lesson Learnt from the Q3 Guidance

This is the most critical part. When management gave its Q3 2025 outlook on the July 31st call, it was based on the weak, low-volatility environment they had just experienced.

What was the Q3 Guidance?

1. Subscription & Services: Management gave a strong, confident range of $665 - $745 million, signaling that this stable business would continue to grow.

2. Transaction Revenue (The "Lesson"): Management did not give a full-quarter forecast. Instead, they gave a very specific, backward-looking metric: "We anticipate July transaction revenue to be approximately $360 million."

The Lesson: Management's guidance set an incredibly conservative bar that the market misinterpreted.

At the time, investors extrapolated that $360 million figure for the full quarter ($360M x 3 = $1.08 billion), which looked like a decent but not spectacular recovery. This muted outlook, combined with the Q2 miss, kept a lid on the stock.

However, we now know what happened in August and September 2025:

• The crypto market roared back to life with an "altcoin season" and a surge in Ethereum.

• Crypto volatility, which was dead in Q2, came back sharply.

This means that the $360 million July number was a baseline, not a trend. The Q2 guidance was a perfect example of how Coinbase's management (and all investors) are poor at forecasting the one metric that truly matters: unpredictable market volatility.

The key lesson was that management's guidance for its core business is, at best, a 30-day snapshot. The macro environment for crypto changed so fast in August and September that the Q2 guidance became obsolete almost immediately. This is precisely why Wall Street is now expecting Q3 transaction revenue of ~$939 million (as we discussed previously), a number that would have seemed impossible based on the muted tone of the Q2 earnings call.

Key Metrics to Watch (Beyond the Headlines)

For a company like Coinbase, the headline numbers do not tell the whole story. These are the critical metrics investors will scrutinize in the shareholder letter to determine the quality of the earnings.

Context & Forward Guidance

The Q3 Crypto Market: The third quarter was defined by an "altcoin season." While Bitcoin (BTC) was relatively flat (+6.4%), Ether (ETH) surged over 66%. This is a perfect environment for Coinbase, as it drives high-margin retail trading and boosts staking revenues (which are ETH-denominated).

The Q4 Guidance: What management says on the earnings call about the current quarter (Q4 2025) is often more important than the Q3 results.

• Listen for any change in tone regarding trading volume so far in October.

• Pay close attention to guidance for Subscription & Services revenue. A "beat-and-raise" (beating Q3 expectations and raising Q4 guidance) is the most bullish scenario.

Coinbase Global (COIN) Price Target

Based on 24 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Coinbase Global in the last 3 months. The average price target is $383.57 with a high forecast of $510.00 and a low forecast of $185.00. The average price target represents a 8.92% change from the last price of $352.15.

Short-Term Trading Considerations

There is a significant short-term trading opportunity defined by high volatility.

The Implied Move

The options market provides the best gauge of expected volatility. As of October 29, the options chain expiring on October 31 (the day after earnings) is pricing in an implied move of approximately ±8.16% for COIN stock.

This means traders are betting on the stock to move either up or down by roughly $29 from its current price, indicating a high-stakes "binary" event.

The Trading Scenarios

The short-term trade will likely have two phases:

Phase 1: The Initial Reaction (4:00 PM - 5:00 PM ET)

• The stock will react instantly to the headline EPS and Revenue numbers.

• Bullish: A clear beat on both EPS ($1.06) and Revenue (~$1.7B) and a beat on MTUs (8.6M).

• Bearish: A miss on either headline number, or a significant miss on MTUs, even with a revenue beat (which would imply revenue came from low-quality, low-margin institutional trading).

Phase 2: The Guidance Trade (5:00 PM ET & Onward)

• This is driven by the earnings call. The initial move can easily reverse based on management's tone and, most importantly, Q4 guidance.

• Bullish Catalyst: Management issues strong Q4 revenue guidance, highlights strong subscription growth, and shows cost control. Listen for any positive updates on their new derivatives exchange or international expansion.

• Bearish Catalyst: Management guides Q4 below expectations (citing a slowdown in October), or complains heavily about fee compression and regulatory headwinds. A "beat-and-cut" (beating Q3 but guiding Q4 down) is a very bearish signal and could cause a sell-off.

Given the stock's run-up (analyst consensus price targets are currently below the stock price), the "bar" for a positive reaction is very high. Coinbase must not only beat expectations but also provide a very strong outlook for Q4.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

The bulls seems to make a successful upside despite Bitcoin showing some volatility this week, and if it could maintain and hold the 26-EMA and 50-EMA level, we might see COIN making a continued upside after its earnings, with catalyst coming from strong showing in the most critical metric for long-term investors will be Subscription and Services Revenue.

As this figure's health is essential for proving Coinbase's diversification away from volatile trading fees.

Summary

Analysts are bullish, expecting strong results driven by the resurgent crypto market volatility in Q3. Consensus estimates are for EPS of $1.06 and Revenue around $1.7 billion to $1.74 billion, representing significant year-over-year growth of ~71% and ~44%, respectively.

The key driver will be Total Trading Volume, which is expected to surge by over 60% year-over-year to ~$299 billion. This is forecast to generate approximately $939 million in Transaction Revenue.

However, the most critical metric for long-term investors will be Subscription and Services Revenue. Analysts are looking for this stable, recurring revenue stream to be around $712 million, within the company's guided range. This figure's health is essential for proving Coinbase's diversification away from volatile trading fees.

Finally, user growth will be in focus, with estimates for Monthly Transacting Users (MTUs) at approximately 8.6 million. The stock's short-term reaction will depend not just on beating these high expectations but also on management's Q4 guidance.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think COIN could provide a strong showings in its Subscription and Services Revenue and the figure’s health is essential for proving Coinbase's diversification away from volatile trading fees.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.