To The Moon

November kicked off with a wave of volatility, and it really took a bite out of my portfolio. Tech stocks, especially those that had been leading all year, suddenly faced heavy profit-taking. The Fed's mixed signals about the pace of rate cuts and renewed worries about U.S. fiscal deficits added even more uncertainty. It's been a reminder that even in a bull market, corrections can happen fast — and they test our patience as investors.

That said, I'm not too discouraged. Volatility in November isn't unusual; in fact, it often serves as a healthy reset before a year-end rebound. Historically, when markets experience sharp swings in early Q4, December tends to deliver a relief rally once investors reposition and window-dressing begins. With liquidity conditions improving and inflation trending lower, I still believe there's a chance for markets to recover and close 2025 on a positive note.

My base case is that the S&P 500 could rise around 3–5% by year-end. Fed rate cuts are starting to show their effect, helping stabilize borrowing costs and sentiment. Corporate earnings have also surprised on the upside, particularly in technology and industrial sectors. However, I'm mindful that much of the good news is already priced in — meaning any further gains will likely depend on macro clarity and investor risk appetite returning in December.

On the other hand, I wouldn't rule out another short-term pullback before the rally resumes. Valuations in some sectors remain stretched, and any disappointing data — whether it's jobs, inflation, or geopolitical tension — could easily trigger another dip. That's why I'm keeping some cash on hand and being selective with my exposure, focusing on companies with strong fundamentals rather than chasing hype.

As for sectors, AI infrastructure and semiconductors remain my top picks heading into year-end. The global race for compute power is accelerating, with firms like Nvidia $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$  , TSMC $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$  , and Broadcom $Broadcom(AVGO)$   continuing to post impressive growth. These names are benefiting from structural demand, not just short-term enthusiasm. Even if momentum slows slightly, I think they’ll continue to outperform as capital spending on AI hardware and data centers ramps up across Asia and North America.

Overall, while November started on a rough note, I'm hopeful that the traditional year-end rally will soon arrive to wrap up 2025 nicely. The market may still swing both ways in the coming weeks, but sentiment is slowly shifting back toward optimism. My plan is to stay invested, stay disciplined, and let time and fundamentals do their work — because often, patience pays best just when everyone else is losing theirs.

As a retail investor, I focus mainly on the US and Singapore markets, combining a mix of technical trading and long-term investing strategies. I enjoy analyzing charts, spotting patterns, and making calculated moves based on both market sentiment and fundamentals. While I'm not a professional, I treat my portfolio seriously and continue to learn and grow with each trade. If you're also navigating the markets and enjoy discussing stocks, options, or market trends, feel free to follow me. Let's learn and grow together as a community.

@Tiger_comments  @TigerStars