Liquidity Crunch, Extreme Fear Hits? Buy the Dip and Add Now or Wait?
The market is falling, and investor sentiment has once again plunged into extreme panic.
Yet retail buying the dip has reached an all-time high, signaling a “risk-on” mode. This year, every market drop seems to have been supported by retail investors stepping in to buy.
However, US equities have never been more expensive. Not even in the periods leading up to the 1930s Great Depression or the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble were US stocks this pricey.
Liquidity crisis might not have reached its most dangerous point.
Recently, big tech companies have been issuing debt frequently.
$Oracle(ORCL)$ , $Alphabet(GOOG)$ , $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ , and $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ have all issued bonds to cover massive Capex spending.
At the same time, the Japanese yen continues to weaken against the US dollar, reflecting concerns over these spending plans and dissatisfaction with the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) inability to effectively curb inflation.
More importantly, if market funds flow from yen to dollars, it will push up the cost of dollar financing. The USD/JPY cross-currency basis swap is likely to move further negative, raising the cost for investors to swap yen into dollars via swaps. In the past, this mechanism was a key source of dollar liquidity for the US equity market. We’ve seen this before, and it indeed impacted US stock market liquidity.
There is some good news: the Fed is set to end QT in December, which could slightly ease liquidity pressures.
Overall sentiment, however, is extremely poor. Even if earnings reports beat expectations this week, markets are likely to fall. $XIAOMI-W(01810)$ has dropped below HKD 40, leaving previous bottom-fishers frustrated.
Which companies do you think have already bottomed?
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Are you ready to start bottom-fishing now, or are you waiting a bit longer?
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同時，該日圓兌美元繼續走軟，反映出對這些支出計劃的擔憂，以及對日本央行（BOJ）無法有效抑制通脹的不滿。
更重要的是，如果市場資金從日元流向美元，將推高美元融資成本。美元/日元交叉貨幣基差掉期可能進一步走低，提高投資者通過掉期將日元兌換成美元的成本。過去，這一機制是美國股市美元流動性的關鍵來源。我們以前見過這種情況，它確實影響了美國股市的流動性。
然而，總體情緒極其糟糕。即使本週財報超出預期，市場也可能下跌。$小米集團-W(01810)$已跌破40港元，讓之前的抄底者感到沮喪。
The Fed ending QT in December could ease some pressure, but I’m not expecting a straight recovery. Selective bottom-fishing makes more sense than buying broadly. Some high-quality companies seem close to or at their bottoms, while others, like Xiaomi under HKD 40, show that even strong names can fall further.
I’m staying patient and building a watchlist, preferring to enter after volatility stabilizes rather than chasing early. Curious how others are positioning—buying the dip now, or waiting for the next leg down?
@TigerStars @Tiger_comments
Nvidia jumped almost 5% post earnings. Wall Street sighs with relief. The God of Fortune has truly shine on Nvidia today. 🥰🥰🥰🌈🌈🌈💰💰💰
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub @Tiger_SG @CaptainTiger
With liquidity tightening and some market indicators suggesting over valuation, cautious investors are watching closely. In short, while $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ offered a dose of AI optimism, the broader market isn't out of the woods just yet.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerClub @CaptainTiger
真正让我担心的是流动性。最近几家科技巨头集体发债，像 Oracle、Alphabet、Meta、亚马逊都为了庞大的资本开支去市场“借钱”，这背后反映出现金流压力比表面看到的更大。再加上日元持续走弱、美元融资成本可能被进一步推高，这类跨币种掉期结构如果继续恶化，确实会影响美国股市的美元流动性——以前我们见过类似情况，后果不轻。
虽然美联储预计 12 月会结束 QT，理论上能稍微缓和一点压力，但目前情绪实在太差了，就算企业交出好成绩，市场也未必买账。像小米跌破 40 港元，就是很明显的例子。
至于哪些公司触底？我认为部分现金流稳、负债少、需求明确的龙头已经很接近底部，但仍然需要时间确认趋势。至于有没有准备海底捞？我个人是“分批小口袋”、而不是一次性下重注，毕竟现在的市场还没到真正见底前的那种“绝望沉默”。如果再跌一波，反而可能是更好的机会。
Check them in the history - “community distribution“
最具弹性的群体仍然是大型科技公司。Alphabet仍保持上升趋势，微软弱势较浅，Meta走强。在医疗保健领域，由于GLP1需求强劲，礼来公司和诺和诺德保持强劲。在半导体领域，英伟达、博通和台积电表现出早期购买兴趣，但尚未确认逆转。
较弱的地区可能还没有触底。甲骨文仍面临信贷压力，有可能进一步下行。投机性人工智能名称、加密货币股票和比特币仍然脆弱，尚未形成明确的支撑。
对于底层捕捞，只关注高质量的领导者，避免落后者。如果谨慎，等待更好的市场广度和更低的波动性。如果扩大规模，请使用小的交错进入最强的大盘股，直到情况稳定下来。
Buying the dip and adding now works for long-term recovery in strong assets, but if more downside is expected, waiting may secure a better entry
Tech, AI, and consumer staples sectors often recover first after a pullback, with solid earners like Meta Platforms (META), Amazon.com (AMZN), and market leaders like NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) and Microsoft Corp (MSFT) are well-poised for recovery
Bitcoin may rebound with institutional adoption and as an inflation hedge, while crypto stocks like Coinbase Global Inc (COIN) could also benefit from market recovery
Bottom-fishing is ideal for high-risk investors confident that assets are at their lowest, while risk-averse individuals may prefer waiting for clearer rebound signals once stability returns
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