To The Moon

$MSFT 20260618 480.0 PUT$ 

MSFT puts today 💰

But honestly… this Thanksgiving pump is looking more like a bull trap than a true reversal.

Over the past week, the market has been pricing in a rate cut narrative again — yet nothing has fundamentally changed:

• Fed officials remain data-driven, and the latest data doesn’t justify a cut.

• Inflation isn’t convincingly down, labor remains tight, and growth prints are still solid.

• If the Fed is genuinely following the numbers, the probability of a near-term cut should be very low — but markets chose to reprice optimism anyway.

That disconnect is exactly why my bear/put thesis still stands.

What’s even more interesting today:

📉 Volume is extremely low — a sharp contrast to the past few opens where we saw billions in turnover.

Low volume + a sudden bounce = usually the recipe for a holiday squeeze, not genuine strength.

My view:

This feels like positioning + low liquidity, not true bullish conviction. When liquidity returns after the holidays, we’ll see who’s swimming naked.

Staying cautious. Staying data-driven.

And yes — still holding puts elsewhere.