RabBird
11-26

$MSFT 20260618 480.0 PUT$ 


MSFT puts today 💰

But honestly… this Thanksgiving pump is looking more like a bull trap than a true reversal.

Over the past week, the market has been pricing in a rate cut narrative again — yet nothing has fundamentally changed:

• Fed officials remain data-driven, and the latest data doesn’t justify a cut.

• Inflation isn’t convincingly down, labor remains tight, and growth prints are still solid.

• If the Fed is genuinely following the numbers, the probability of a near-term cut should be very low — but markets chose to reprice optimism anyway.

That disconnect is exactly why my bear/put thesis still stands.

What’s even more interesting today:

📉 Volume is extremely low — a sharp contrast to the past few opens where we saw billions in turnover.

Low volume + a sudden bounce = usually the recipe for a holiday squeeze, not genuine strength.

My view:

This feels like positioning + low liquidity, not true bullish conviction. When liquidity returns after the holidays, we’ll see who’s swimming naked.

Staying cautious. Staying data-driven.

And yes — still holding puts elsewhere.

# Market Rebound: Will Thanksgiving Week Break the Four-Year Pattern?

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  • Valerie Archibald
    ·11-27
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    MSFT up green after reclaiming its 200 DMA after being oversold and GOOGL in red being overbought adding a Trillion in in market in weeks. MSFT a Strong Buy in my opinion and GOOGL is a sell until it settles..
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    • RabBird: 
      MSFT’s fundamentals are strong, but short-term price action doesn’t always align with forward earnings revisions. I’m just hedging the euphoric repricing we’ve seen the past few weeks. Let’s see how it plays out.
      11-27
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    • RabBird: 
      HValid points — 200DMA reclaim is definitely something traders look at.
      My angle is more macro-driven: liquidity injections + a near-zero probability of a December cut (if the Fed stays data-driven) means rallies can turn into bull traps quickly.
      11-27
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  • Venus Reade
    ·11-27
    TOP
    Great opportunity to accumulate at today's price to keep multiple years. MSFT will appreciate sharply in the near future
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    • RabBird: 
      Short-term correction #bearish on the company and market.
      Managing risk is key in an overextended market.
      11-27
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    • RabBird: 
      Long-term, I completely agree MSFT is one of the highest-quality names.
      My puts are purely a tactical play — volatility is unusually low, positioning is crowded, and the market has priced in rate-cut optimism that hasn't actually materialised in the data.
      11-27
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  • JackQuant
    ·11-27
    Thanks for sharing your insights~
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