November stumbled, but history says December still holds firepower.
November broke its old reputation, closing red despite a strong year to date. But the data behind this pattern is far more interesting. In every year where the S and P 500 gained at least 10 percent from Jan to Oct and November turned negative, December delivered positive returns across the board. Average December gain: 4 percent. Average drawdown: 1.7 percent. Zero negative outcomes.
The logic is simple. A negative November often resets positioning. Funds de risk, short term traders close books, and liquidity thins. Once December starts, pension flows, buybacks, and year end window dressing push markets upward. This structural tailwind has been consistent for decades.
So what does this mean for the stocks we watch?
CRCL
AI data infrastructure plays remain sensitive to rotation, but CRCL still benefits from sustained enterprise spending. If December turns risk on, small cap AI names can rebound faster due to higher beta.
RZLV
Agentic AI plus Amazon ecosystem demand still drives the long term story. If the market reverts to growth leadership in December, this has room to bounce harder than the indices.
RGTI
Quantum computing is still early stage, but volatility spikes often bring inflows to frontier tech. A December rebound can lift speculative names as long as the macro stays stable.
BROADER READ:
A Santa rally is possible if SPX holds above key trend levels. A break below would delay the cycle, not end it.
My view: December favours disciplined dip buying, light trimming on emotional bounces, and keeping exposure in sectors with real catalysts: AI infrastructure, quantum, and selected small caps with high upside convexity.
Will Santa arrive? Probability is higher than most believe.
Not financial advice. Trade wisely, Comrades!
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