To The Moon

When I look back at Jerome Powell's tenure, I think he handled one of the most volatile economic periods in modern history with more steadiness than he gets credit for. From the pandemic shock to the inflation spike, he walked a very narrow path, and despite all the political noise, the U.S. ultimately avoided the recession almost everyone expected. I would rate his performance as "pragmatic but imperfect" — he was slow at certain points, but he delivered a soft landing that many global central banks couldn't achieve.

That said, I fully understand why Powell never enjoyed strong public approval. High rates hit consumers, homeowners, and businesses in ways that feel very real, and the everyday cost of living still doesn't feel "normal." The criticism from Trump's circle only intensified that sentiment, but I personally think Powell's biggest contribution was defending the Fed's independence. In an environment where political pressure has been rising sharply, keeping policy anchored to data — even imperfectly — matters more than ever.

If Kevin Hassett becomes the next Fed Chair, I do think policy will shift toward a more aggressive easing path. Hassett has been vocal about wanting cheaper mortgages, lower auto loans, and faster rate cuts, so markets are right to price in a more dovish tone. The question for me isn't whether rates will fall — I think they will — but whether the cuts go too far and reopen the door to second-wave inflation. If growth stays strong, I'm not convinced we'll see policy rates below 3% without consequences.

A looser Fed would certainly be bullish for risk assets, especially tech, real estate, and high-beta growth stocks. But I don't think easier policy automatically guarantees a clean, smooth bull market. If monetary policy becomes more aligned with political cycles, volatility could easily rise, not fall. Markets may cheer in the short term, but the longer-term risks — dollar weakness, inflated valuations, and potential credibility erosion — are things I'm watching closely.

For me, central bank independence remains the most important issue in this whole discussion. Data-driven policy is the backbone of market stability, and once politics starts steering the wheel, uncertainty increases for everyone — investors, companies, and consumers. The next Fed Chair will inherit an economy at a turning point, and whether it stays stable will depend heavily on how insulated monetary policy remains from political influence.

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