To The Moon

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 📅 16Dec25 🇺🇸 | 17Dec25 🇳🇿

🧭 This is no longer a sentiment-led market

Negative GEX remains firmly in control across $SPX, compressing upside and turning price action mechanical. Rallies are met with supply, weakness persists longer than expected, and positioning now outweighs narrative. This is a dealer-dominated tape, not an emotional one.

⚙️ $682 has become the market’s centre of gravity

Positive gamma is stacked tightly between $681–$685, with the MVC anchored at $682. That zone is acting as a magnet, repeatedly pulling price back into balance. Below spot, negative gamma builds aggressively from $670–$675, creating a sharp asymmetry if support fractures.

📊 Range is the base case until proven otherwise

In this structure, chop is not noise, it is the outcome. False breaks are common, momentum stalls quickly, and direction only becomes meaningful on confirmed closes. Intraday probes mean little in a negative gamma regime.

🌪️ The volatility hole is now active

This is the inflection. A hold and close above the upper boundary would force dealer hedging to flip supportive, opening the door to upside expansion. A decisive close below $673.70 changes the regime and materially increases the odds of a deeper downside unwind.

🧠 VRP exposes where risk is crowded and where it’s ignored

Implied volatility is elevated across $SPX, $QQQ, $DIA, $VIX and $SLV, signalling expensive options and heavy demand for protection. At the same time, $XLF, $XLY, $XLE and $XLU remain priced for calm. That divergence rarely lasts and typically precedes rotation rather than broad trend continuation.

🏦 Macro pressure is tightening the Fed’s room to manoeuvre

The delayed November jobs report beat headline estimates, but the internals are softer. November added 64,000 jobs versus 40,000 expected, after a major October revision showing 105,000 jobs lost. Unemployment jumped from 4.4% to 4.6%, above the 4.5% estimate and the highest level in more than four years.

📉 Long-term unemployment is quietly deteriorating again

In November, 24.3% of unemployed Americans had been searching for work for at least six months, up from 23.6% in September and 23.1% in November 2024. That is a steady grind higher, and it is the kind of trend that makes easing politically and economically harder.

🧩 This market is trading structure first, stories second

Gamma defines the boundaries. Volatility dictates the risk. Narratives adjust afterward. Until positioning resets, the options market remains firmly in control of direction.

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