BTS
12-22 15:19

Micron Technology (MU) is capitalizing on record Artificial Intelligence (AI) demand and sustaining its rally with a sold-out 2026 order book, but future growth faces risks from competition and geopolitical tensions。。。

Like NVIDIA Corp (NVDA), MU is riding the AI surge, but it lacks a monopoly and must battle memory giants Samsung and SK Hynix for market share

The supply-demand imbalance remains tight as AI memory uses triple the typical wafer capacity, but prices may stabilize as new supply enters the market in the coming years

It is not too late to get on board memory stocks for those bullish on the long-term AI supercycle; investment in MU remains viable, though long-term prospects depend on navigating volatility, geopolitical risks, and intense competition, which could dampen growth projections

While the memory sector remains a high-growth AI play, assessing entry points is essential due to rising prices and market volatility

Tag :@Huat99  @Snowwhite  

Can MU Sustain the Rally? Too Late To Bet on Memory Stocks?

@Tiger_comments：
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ opened higher on Micron’s explosive earnings report, but quickly gave back some gains, as investors remain cautious ahead of the Bank of Japan’s rate decision on Friday. $Micron Technology(MU)$ itself jumped as much as 16% at the open before settling around +13%. Regardless, Micron was clearly the standout performer of the session. Micron delivered a clean beat: revenue, profits, cash flow, and profitability all exceeded expectations. EPS: $4.78; Revenue: $13.64B, up 57% year-over-year. Q2 outlook: EPS: $8.42; Revenue: $18.7B — record highs Growth driven by AI-led demand for memory and storage Net income came in at $5.48B, up 58% quarter-over-quarter and 135% year-over-year. Gross margin surged to 56%, a 12 percentage point jump QoQ, far above the market’s 51% expectation. Looking ahead, Micron guided next-quarter revenue to $18.3B–$19.1B, versus consensus of just $14.4B. Adjusted EPS guidance was raised to $8.22–$8.62, nearly 80% above the market’s $4.71 estimate. Even more striking, Micron expects forward 12-month EPS to reach $23.63, compared with $7.73 over the past 12 months — a near 3x increase. Most importantly, cash flow is now running well above net income, a critical signal of earnings quality. Taken together, these hard numbers strongly suggest that Micron may be one of the least “bubble-like” AI earnings stories in the market. Is this breaking the AI bubble narrative and ushering in Micron’s “Nvidia moment”? On the earnings call, management repeatedly emphasized that the memory industry is facing a severe and persistent supply–demand imbalance, with no near-term solution. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra stated plainly: “We believe that, for the foreseeable future, total industry supply will remain well below demand.” He expects the tight supply environment to persist through 2026 and beyond. During the Q&A, he added a quantitative detail: “Over the medium term, we can only meet about 50% to two-thirds of demand for certain key customers.” Just days ago, Micron formally notified partners that starting January 1, 2026, order modification lead times will be extended from 30 days to 90 days. More importantly, any orders scheduled for delivery in 2026 will be treated as non-cancelable, non-price-adjustable, and non-reschedulable by default. In simple terms: from next year onward, changing orders will be nearly impossible. So the big questions remain: Is this the “Nvidia moment” for Micron — or for the memory sector as a whole? $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ How long can this supply–demand imbalance really last? And is it already too late to get on board memory stocks now? Leave your comments to win tiger coins~
Can MU Sustain the Rally? Too Late To Bet on Memory Stocks?

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Comment（6）

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  • IreneWells
    ·12-22 17:09
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    AI memory race getting spicy with new supply coming [看涨] Still reckon MU's got legs if you time entry right mate
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    • BTS: 
      [smile]
      12-24 00:03
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  • Valerie Archibald
    ·12-22 19:33
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    Micron is slow to enter the HBM4 market and could be marginalized by the two South Korean companies.

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    • BTS: 
      [smile]
      12-23 23:56
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  • Mortimer Arthur
    ·12-22 19:43
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    Micron will hit $300 by Monday night

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    • BTS: 
      [smile]
      12-23 23:58
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