To The Moon

$D-Wave Quantum Inc.(QBTS)$ Bullish $IONQ Inc.(IONQ)$ Bullish $Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$ Bullish 22Dec25 🇺🇸|23Dec25 🇳🇿

I’m seeing a familiar early-cycle signal across quantum names, and it’s coming from positioning, not headlines. Put/call ratios across the group have collapsed to extreme lows versus their 20-day norms. That tells me traders are pressing direction, not hedging exposure.

📊 Options Positioning Is Doing the Talking

The Bloomberg snapshot is unambiguous. Today’s put/call ratios sit deeply compressed across $QBTS $IONQ $RGTI $QUBT versus their own recent history. When ratios dislocate this far, it reflects urgency and leverage, not casual optimism. This is what one-way options traffic looks like when a theme starts to rotate back into favour.

🟢 Flow Confirms in $QBTS

$QBTS stands out on both price and flow. Repeated call sweeps are hitting across multiple expiries, including size pushed further out the curve. Net options flow has turned firmly positive and stayed there. Price is responding accordingly, up over 14% on the session, driven by calls rather than forced covering. That distinction is critical.

📈 Structure Divergence Across the 4H Charts

This is where the group starts to separate.

$QBTS has already transitioned into expansion. Price has reclaimed the short-term EMA stack, EMA 13 and EMA 21 are curling higher with clear separation, and price is pushing into the upper Keltner envelope. Bollinger bands are widening after a prolonged squeeze. That combination tells me momentum is leading, not repairing.

$IONQ remains constructive but earlier. Price has stabilised above the lower Keltner band, EMA compression is resolving, and downside velocity has stalled. This is repair, not trend, but it’s happening alongside aggressive call skew, which is usually the precursor to resolution.

$RGTI shows classic seller exhaustion. The downtrend has flattened, price is holding within the mid Keltner channel, and Bollinger bands are tightening again. This is no longer directional weakness. It’s coiling.

$QUBT is the earliest and lowest beta of the group. Price has stopped making lower lows, EMAs are no longer accelerating downward, and volatility has compressed tightly. That’s stabilisation, not breakdown, and it matters when call bias increases rather than fades.

🌍 Macro Context Gives This Staying Power

This isn’t happening in a vacuum. The US now accounts for more than 45% of global quantum activity, with patent growth running roughly 40% year over year. China sits near 25%, Europe third. Commercialisation timelines are accelerating, and capital consistently positions early into infrastructure layers before fundamentals become consensus.

🎅 Seasonality Is Now A Tailwind

Timing matters. The Santa Claus Rally window kicks off on Wednesday, 24 Dec, covering the last 5 trading days of December and the first 2 of January. After two consecutive Santa slumps in 2023 and 2024, history leans bullish. We’ve never seen three Santa slumps in a row. When seasonality aligns with improving structure and aggressive call skew, I pay attention.

🧠 My Read

I’ve seen this setup before. Semiconductors in the mid-2010s, cloud infrastructure shortly after, early AI hardware before the narrative caught fire. In each case, derivatives turned first, price stopped going down second, and structure repaired last. Quantum is now moving through that same sequence, with $QBTS leading the transition.

I’m watching behaviour, not stories. Right now, behaviour is lining up.

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