To The Moon

$PulteGroup(PHM)$ $Toll Brothers(TOL)$  $Lennar(LEN)$  📉🏗️📊 PHM Pullback Into the 320DMA, Noise or Opportunity? 📊🏗️📉

I’m watching PulteGroup $PHM ease about −1.2% as homebuilders cool after the hotter Case-Shiller print. That macro pressure is clear, but it’s also well flagged and broadly priced across the group.

I’m far more interested in where price is landing. PHM is pulling back into its 320DMA around $117–118, a zone that has historically acted as a stabilisation area rather than a breakdown trigger. About half the time, tests of this long-term average have resolved higher, particularly when the broader trend structure remains intact.

I’m not seeing structural damage yet. The uptrend from the April lows is still respected, downside volume is controlled rather than impulsive, and the stock remains +7.9% in 2025. This looks more like digestion after a strong advance than trend failure.

If the 320DMA holds, I see scope for a mean reversion toward the $122–123 region where prior resistance and supply sit. A failure here would shift focus to deeper rising trend support below, but that’s not the dominant signal yet.

For now, I’m treating this as a macro-driven fade into a historically important technical zone. The reaction around the 320DMA matters more than the headline data.

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