To The Moon

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases for January 2026 (week of 05Jan2026)

Manufacturing Sector Outlook

The ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing Prices for December are set to be released in the coming week. Current forecasts anticipate contractionary pressures within the manufacturing sector, with the PMI expected at 48.4. Meanwhile, manufacturing prices are forecasted at 59.0, suggesting continued inflationary pressures affecting costs in this area.

Non-Manufacturing and Services Sector

Data for the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices will also be published. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is projected at 52.2, indicating an expansion in the services sector for December. Last month’s ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Price stood at 65.4, which points to significant inflationary pressure within the services sector.

Global Services PMI

The S&P Global Services PMI forecast for December is 52.9. This figure is considered expansionary and reflects a positive outlook for last month’s global services.

Energy Market Update

Crude oil inventories previously experienced a drawdown of 1.934 million barrels. This reduction implies a favourable environment for production and overall market conditions.

Labor Market Indicators

Turning to employment figures, the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for December is forecasted at a positive 50k jobs. Initial jobless claims results will be released soon, with the previous count at 199,000 claims.

The JOLTS Job Openings for December are expected to reach 7.73 million, an improvement from the previous figure of 7.67 million. Average hourly earnings for December are forecasted to rise by 0.3% month-over-month. Nonfarm payrolls are projected to increase by 55,000, and the unemployment rate is forecasted to hold at 4.5% for December. These data points are critical for the Federal Reserve as it considers them in forthcoming interest rate decisions.

Earnings Calendar (05Jan2026)

There are several notable earnings announcements, including those from RGP, Jefferies, AAR, NTI, and MSC. Let us look into NTI.

Stock Analysis and Sentiment

Technical analysis currently recommends a “strong buy” for NTIC, which aligns with prevailing analyst sentiment. The consensus target price is $13.00, representing a potential upside of over 60%.

Previous Earnings Review

NTI’s revenue has grown significantly over the past decade, rising from $33 million in 2016 to $84 million in 2025.

The company has reported operating losses each year since 2016, recording a $9 million loss in 2016 and a $6 million loss in 2025.

NTI maintains a gross profit margin of 33.6% based on a 10-year median, while its free cash flow (FCF) margin stands at 3.6%. Despite a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.8% in revenue over the past decade, the company has not achieved breakeven during this period, according to its financial data.

NTI began issuing dividends per share in 2018, starting at $0.20, with the dividend amount at $0.16 per share in 2025.

NTI Forecast

• Estimated EPS: Analysts have a consensus estimate of $0.05 per share for the quarter ending November 2025.

• Estimated Revenue: Revenue is projected to be approximately $22.10 million.

With its inability to break even, I prefer to avoid this company.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (05Jan2026)

Technical Analysis Overview

MACD Indicator

Following the recent top crossover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator continues to suggest a downtrend.

Moving Averages

The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above both the 50-day and 200-day moving average (MA) lines. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in both the short-term and long-term outlooks. Furthermore, both the 50 MA and the 200 MA are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend.

Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)

The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing a bullish outlook. There is a potential convergence that implies a trend change.

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) currently registers at 0.03 and is also trending upward. This reading indicates that there is more buying pressure than selling, which is typically interpreted as a positive signal for future price movement.

More Technical Analysis

Currently, a total of 11 indicators point towards a “Buy” rating, while 8 suggest a “Sell” rating. This brings the consensus to “Neutral” based on the technical analysis.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

From the latest CNN Fear & Greed Index, the market lingered in the “Neutral” range. Will the trend head towards the “Fear” region? Only time will tell.

Candlestick Analysis (from Grok)

Short-Term Outlook (1-3 Months)

Mildly bullish with consolidation likely. Recent high-reliability daily/weekly bullish patterns (Three Outside Up on Dec 11, 2025; Three White Soldiers on Nov 11, 2025) support buyer control, but smaller-bodied candles near all-time highs signal slowing momentum and indecision. Expect sideways trading or a shallow pullback toward 6,500–6,600 support before resuming upward. Risk of deeper correction only if clear bearish reversal forms.

Long-Term Outlook (6-12+ Months)

Strongly bullish. The monthly Morning Doji Star and Morning Star reversals (completed May 2025) accurately marked the major bull market bottom, driving ~35% gains since. Structure remains intact with higher highs/lows and a breakout above prior resistance. Primary trend favours continuation toward 7,000+ levels in 2026, treating dips as buying opportunities absent major macro shocks.

(Candlestick patterns are probabilistic; combine with volume, fundamentals, and broader market context for decisions.)

S&P500 Market Outlook

Given the above indicators, I lean towards a bearish outlook for the coming week.

News and my thoughts from the past week (05Jan2026)

Chamath: Fraud at this scale will end the American Empire if nothing is done

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is now sitting on an all-time high $382 Billion in Cash, enough to buy 479 companies in the S&P 500.

Private credit firms purchased or committed to buy a record $136 billion of consumer loans in 2025. This includes credit cards, buy now pay later (BNPL), and other consumer finance products. This is nearly +1,300% more than in 2024, when purchases totalled $10 billion. In other words, private investment funds are increasingly owning consumer debt. One example is KKR, which agreed to buy a multibillion-Dollar portfolio of credit card loans from New Day, a private equity-backed lender in Europe. Most of this debt is not backed by assets, so if borrowers stop making payments, these funds have limited options to recover the capital. Private credit firms are taking on more risk than ever. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

Following the exposure of millions in fraud at Somali-run care centers in Minnesota, similar concerns are now surfacing in Washington state, where 539 of about 5,000 licensed care centers are Somali-run, many lacking a physical address. - X user Breaking911

Nearly 24 cents of every $1 in taxes collected by the US government now goes toward paying interest on public debt. That is almost twice the level seen in 2021. This comes as gross interest costs have exceeded $1.2 trillion over the last 12 months. That is more than DOUBLE the 2021 amount and QUADRUPLE the level in 2014. The federal government now carries $38.35 trillion in debt. - X user Global Markets Investor

My Investing Muse (05Jan2026)

Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news

• Allianz Research expects global business insolvencies to rise by +6% in 2025, and again by +5% in 2026, before a modest decline by –1% in 2027. “Global insolvency outlook 2026-27” - Allianz

• Soleply filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in March after taking on too much debt and unsustainable leases, according to court documents filed with PacerMonitor. - The Street

• A newly filed document with the State of Michigan shows 265 employees are affected by the Farmington Hills Mercedes facility closure. 108 employees plan to stay with Mercedes or an affiliate. 157 employees declined relocation. Those 157 face permanent layoffs between Dec 31, 2025 – Aug 31, 2026. - X user Amanda Goodall

• US SMALL COMPANIES ARE GOING BANKRUPT AT A PACE CONSISTENT WITH A RECESSION: 2,221 US INDIVIDUALS AND SMALL FIRMS HAVE FILED FOR BANKRUPTCY UNDER SUBCHAPTER V SO FAR IN 2025, THE MOST ON RECORD. Are we headed towards a recession in 2026? - X user Jesse Cohen

My Final Thoughts

Breaking news has emerged that the USA has taken military action against Venezuela, resulting in the capture of President Maduro and his wife. This unprecedented move raises questions about the potential impact on global markets when trading resumes on Monday. The international community may respond in various ways, as such a direct intervention—capturing a foreign leader and bringing him to trial in another country—deviates from established diplomatic and legal protocols for handling escalations of this magnitude. Investors are likely to monitor the situation closely, keeping an eye on how financial flows respond to this event.

Silver Market Concerns

There are ongoing questions surrounding the silver market, particularly regarding discrepancies between the volume traded on exchanges and the actual physical production of the metal. These inconsistencies have led to suspicions of fraudulent activity. The situation underscores the importance of allowing legal processes to address and resolve such concerns within the commodities sector.

Fraud in the Childcare Sector

In Minnesota, a significant case of fraud has surfaced within the childcare industry, amounting to $18 billion. This revelation has placed several politicians and businesses under increased scrutiny as investigations continue.

Outlook for the New Year

The beginning of 2026 promises to be eventful. As many recover from New Year’s Eve celebrations, attention turns to the financial markets, which are poised to resume activity amid the possibility of unexpected, high-impact events—so-called “black swans”—as highlighted by recent developments.

S&P 500 and Market Caution

There remains optimism for the S&P 500 to reach new highs. However, rising concerns about market depth and recent issues related to the banking repo suggest a cautious approach may be warranted. In this environment, holding cash and engaging in smaller trades appears to be a prudent strategy for navigating the current uncertainties.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$

$Northern(NTIC)$