To The Moon

$Chevron(CVX)$  $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$  $ConocoPhillips(COP)$  

03Jan26 🇺🇸 | 04Jan26 🇳🇿

🎯 Executive Summary

I’m extremely confident this marks one of the most consequential geopolitical and energy inflection points of the decade. The removal of Nicolás Maduro is not merely a regime change. It is the reopening of the largest proven oil reserve on Earth, approximately 303 billion barrels, now aligning with U.S. capital, U.S. engineering, and U.S. operational execution.

President Trump’s words were explicit and must be taken literally:

“We are going to have our very large oil companies go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country.”

Source: White House

I’m focused squarely on Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and ConocoPhillips (COP), with second-order torque flowing through Schlumberger (SLB), Halliburton (HAL), selective refining exposure via Valero Energy (VLO), and volatility capture through Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE).

I’m also explicitly seeing 4H accumulation across the energy majors, which historically precedes daily continuation rather than exhaustion. This is reserve control at scale, not a short-term oil price trade.

💰 Financial Performance And Structural Reality

The asymmetry across the charts is staggering, and one of the visuals makes this unmistakable by directly comparing proven crude oil reserves measured in billions of barrels against crude oil exports measured in billions of USD.

• Venezuela 🇻🇪

Proven reserves: 303.22B barrels

2023 crude exports: $4.05B

• United States 🇺🇸

Proven reserves: 55.2B barrels

2023 crude exports: $125B

This is not a geology issue. It is a governance collapse.

The long-term production chart spanning 1920 through 2025 shows Venezuela rising to sustained output near 3–4M barrels per day, followed by a sharp structural collapse beginning in the early 2000s as Chávez-era policies took hold and accelerated under Maduro. That capability fell apart alongside the decay of PDVSA, the state oil company. Capital fled. Engineers exited. Infrastructure deteriorated. Contracts were voided. Billions in U.S. oil assets were expropriated.

The reserves never disappeared. The execution did.

🛠️ Strategic Failure Point: PDVSA And Why U.S. Majors Matter

I want to be precise. Venezuelan oil collapsed because PDVSA collapsed.

• Drilling rigs idled

• Pipelines corroded

• Refineries deteriorated

• Skilled engineers exited the country

• Capital expenditure effectively went to zero

Heavy crude extraction requires specialised expertise and downstream integration. This is exactly where CVX, XOM, and COP dominate. These firms are not opportunistic entrants. They are infrastructure rebuilders with decades of experience in sour and heavy crude, integrated directly into U.S. Gulf Coast refining systems.

President Trump explicitly stated that U.S. oil companies would be reimbursed for billions spent rebuilding Venezuelan infrastructure, with repayment sourced directly from oil sales. That single statement reframes this transition as capital recovery and asset control, not foreign aid.

Unresolved arbitration claims from past expropriations add further upside. Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips each hold multi-billion-dollar unpaid claims, now representing either compensation or reinstated assets.

🧠 Analyst, Institutional, And Capital Flow Context

Chevron already maintains joint ventures and is best positioned for immediate scaling. Exxon Mobil brings unmatched global scale, heavy-crude optimisation, and downstream leverage. ConocoPhillips stands to benefit from legal resolution layered on top of operational re-entry.

ETF exposure via XLE captures volatility, but true alpha remains concentrated in direct operators and service providers. SLB and HAL stand to benefit from an estimated $120B+ infrastructure rebuild, spanning drilling, maintenance, and technology upgrades required to restore output toward 3M+ bpd.

📉📈 Technical Setup (4H Charts): Accumulation Confirmed Across Majors

I’m analysing 4-hour (4H) charts, which are optimal for identifying institutional positioning, swing continuation, and regime persistence without lower-timeframe noise. Across CVX, XOM, and COP, the 4H structure confirms accumulation, not exhaustion.

Chevron (CVX) | 4H Chart

Price: $155.80

RSI (4H): rising, no bearish divergence

MACD (4H): positive and expanding

Structure: higher highs and higher lows

Keltner and Bollinger bands: expanding upward with price riding the upper envelope

EMA alignment: price firmly above 13, 21, and 55 EMA

Support: $150–152

Resistance: $156–157, now under sustained pressure

This is textbook 4H trend continuation, not late-cycle extension.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) | 4H Chart

Price: $122.64

RSI (4H): constructive mid-range hold

MACD (4H): bullish crossover sustained

EMA structure: price above 13, 21, and 55 EMA

Volatility bands: widening with controlled expansion

Support: $119–120

Upside extension: $124–125+

ConocoPhillips (COP) | 4H Chart

Price: $96.63

RSI (4H): rebounding from mid-range

MACD (4H): upward inflection

Pattern: base breakout following consolidation

EMA behaviour: price reclaiming short-term averages with positive slope

Support: $92–93

Resistance: $97–100, now active

🌍 Macro And Global Power Reordering

One of the most powerful visuals shows that just four countries control more than half of the planet’s proven oil reserves, with Venezuela occupying the single largest share in that global concentration map. Another reserve-by-country chart reinforces this dominance by placing Venezuela clearly above Saudi Arabia and Canada, visually underscoring the scale of its latent leverage.

Oil begins 2026 soft, with Brent near $60, pressured by non-OPEC supply growth and slowing demand. Yet geopolitics now overrides pure supply math. U.S. access to Venezuelan reserves weakens Russian and Saudi leverage while materially reducing Chinese influence in the Western Hemisphere.

This is oil as diplomacy, collateral, and strategic power.

📊 Valuation And Capital Health

CVX, XOM, and COP trade at reasonable forward multiples relative to free cash flow durability, dividend coverage, and reserve longevity. Venezuelan access extends reserve life without offshore exploration risk, materially improving long-term capital efficiency.

This is not about next quarter’s EPS. This is about multi-decade reserve control at scale.

⚖️ Verdict & Trade Plan

I remain firmly bullish on CVX, XOM, and COP, with selective exposure to SLB, HAL, VLO, and volatility capture via XLE.

• Accumulate on pullbacks toward rising EMAs

• Stops below structural support zones

• Base targets: continuation toward prior highs

• Stretch targets: price discovery if oil volatility returns

• Confirmation: volume expansion, sustained upper-band riding, positive MACD slope

🏁 Conclusion

I’m convinced this is not merely a setup. It is a structural rerating in motion. Control of reserves matters more than short-term oil prices, and the market is only beginning to reprice that reality. Infrastructure beats ideology. Execution beats headlines. The charts confirm it. That’s why I’m here.

📌 Key Takeaways

• Venezuela reserves: 303.22B barrels, largest globally

• Four countries control 50%+ of global proven oil reserves

• U.S. exports 2023: $125B vs Venezuela $4.05B

• CVX $155.80, bullish 4H band expansion confirmed

• XOM $122.64, 4H EMA stack intact

• COP $96.63, 4H base breakout active

• Estimated rebuild: $120B+ capex opportunity

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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