To The Moon

Here’s a clear summary of the latest CPI report (Consumer Price Index – December 2025) from the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) official release:

CPI details from official BLS website

Summary by ChatGPT:

🧾 Headline Inflation (All Items)

• Monthly change: CPI-U (all items) rose 0.3 % in December 2025 (seasonally adjusted).

• Annual change: Up 2.7 % over the past 12 months (not seasonally adjusted), the same annual increase as in November.

📊 Core Inflation (Excluding Food & Energy)

• Core CPI increased 0.2 % in December and is up 2.6 % over the year.

🍎 Food and Energy

• Food prices: rose 3.1 % year-over-year, with food at home and food away from home both contributing.

• Energy index: up 2.3 % annually.

🔍 Major Contributors

• Shelter costs were the largest monthly contributor, increasing 0.4 % in December.

• Other indexes showing monthly increases included recreation, airline fares, medical care, apparel, personal care, and education.

• Decreases were seen in categories like communication, used cars and trucks, and household furnishings/operations.

📌 Context and Notes

• October and November data were not collected due to a government budget lapse, and those months are not included in the month-by-month table.

• The continued moderate inflation pace suggests inflation pressures are not accelerating sharply, and is consistent with broader economic indicators pointing to stabilization. (This interpretation aligns with broader reporting, but check the full release for detailed tables and technical notes.)

Impact on coming interest rate decisions

The December CPI data essentially "locked in" a pause for the January meeting. The Fed is likely to use the January meeting to signal whether they believe inflation is sufficiently controlled to allow for further cuts later in the spring, or if the 2.7% level is too stubborn to justify more easing right now.

@TigerStars

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