To The Moon

$POET Technologies Inc(POET)$   $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$  $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  🗓️ 20Jan26 ET 🇺🇸 | 21Jan26 NZT 🇳🇿

⚡ I’m watching $POET move like a stock transitioning from story to supply chain.

$POET is ripping to $8.97, up +8.01%, on heavy volume after its Teralight product won a Product Innovation Award at China’s Infostone ICCSZ Awards in Shenzhen. Dr. Mo Jinyu, SVP of Global Product Development, was also honoured with a Technology Innovation Award.

I’m not treating this as marketing noise. Shenzhen is the heartland of global transceiver manufacturing, the place where designs either become product or fail in qualification. Winning here is about manufacturability credibility, not branding.

⚙️ Flow and positioning, this is not a normal session.

I’m seeing a flow regime that typically appears before the broader market realises the narrative has shifted.

• Total options volume: 52,568

• Calls: 48,362 vs Puts: 4,206

• Total premium: $8,772,962

• Net premium: +$1,814,385

• Call premium: $8.46M vs Put premium: $314K

• 37K contracts by 11AM vs 28K 20-day average for a full session

That is not casual activity. That is positioning. When call volume compresses time like this, gamma sensitivity rises and price can be pulled through nearby levels as hedging, momentum, and narrative align.

🏆 Why the Shenzhen award matters more than most people realise.

I’m focused on an industry transition that is already underway.

The transceiver stack is being forced toward semiconductor-style logic, higher lane speeds, tighter signal integrity budgets, and ruthless focus on yield, cost-per-bit, and power-per-bit.

Shenzhen validation implies the supply chain is ready to seriously evaluate the architecture, same-board integration is becoming commercially relevant, wire-bond-heavy designs are turning into constraints, and POET is being pulled toward productisation rather than trapped in demo land.

🧠 I’m framing 2026 as a binary year, productisation or credibility reset.

The CRO interview is not commentary, it is a roadmap with underwriting checkpoints.

1️⃣ “This year is our year to productize.”

I translate this into one requirement, repeatable volume shipments. Not samples. Not NRE. Volume, cadence, and follow-on orders.

2️⃣ “Wafer-scale assembly without active alignments.”

This is the core moat attempt. Active alignment is slow and capex-heavy. Wafer-scale passive assembly follows the semiconductor playbook. If yields hold through H2 26 ramps, the cost curve shifts structurally.

3️⃣ “Same engines for multiple module types.”

This is switching-cost creation. One common engine compresses engineering cycles and simplifies manufacturing lines. That is how a component becomes a standard.

4️⃣ “3.2T, BGA-style, eliminating wire bonds.”

This is a physics bet. At higher lane speeds, wire bonds become a signal integrity and thermal liability. TSV and BGA-style packaging shorten paths and reduce noise. If POET demonstrates 400G-per-lane performance in 2026, that is architectural relevance, not just a spec win.

5️⃣ “Working with Celestial AI, acquired by Marvell.”

This is the validation node and the concentration-risk node. I’m not assuming continuity is guaranteed, but I am assuming Marvell’s diligence was exhaustive. If POET remains inside that roadmap, credibility reprices fast.

🔬 What POET is, in one institutional sentence.

POET is attempting to semiconductorise photonics manufacturing via a wafer-scale Optical Interposer platform targeting optical engine and light-source sockets inside 800G, 1.6T, and next-generation AI connectivity.

📦 Where revenue must show up to change the valuation regime.

I’m watching three vectors because any one of them can drive a re-rate.

• Scale-out pluggables, Infinity and Teralight converting orders into shipped product

• Scale-up light sources, Starlight and Blazar becoming real ELS sockets

• Next-node relevance, 3.2T and 400G-per-lane keeping POET on the forward curve

🏭 Execution is the whole game now.

I’m watching manufacturing proof, not press releases. Penang and OSAT partnerships are the credibility layer. Yield at scale is the key risk. High-yield wafer-scale processes are the key upside.

💰 Balance sheet strength buys time, dilution raises the bar.

Cash runway reduces near-term financing risk. Option and warrant overhang means execution has to overpower dilution gravity.

🧭 My 2026 milestone checklist, this is what decides the stock.

Fulfilment of the $5M production order with repeat follow-ons. Yield and manufacturing cadence disclosure. Named customer diversification. Tangible 1.6T adoption progress. Clarity on Marvell-Celestial continuity. Proof the wire-bond-free thesis translates into qualified sockets.

✅ Closing view, bullish structure, but I respect the risk.

I’m watching $POET as a high-beta platform-optionality vehicle. The tape, the flow, and the Shenzhen validation all point toward productisation momentum.

Now the company has to do the only thing that matters in 2026.

Ship. Repeat. Scale.

📢 Don’t miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets 🚀📈 I’m obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let’s outsmart the market and stack those gains together! 🍀

Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

@Tiger_comments