🚀 AI rocket fuel 🚀
Add to crowded AI plays as rare Earth minerls powers the Mag 7 boom with rocket fuel.
The top five rare earth elements most critical to AI progression are neodymium, dysprosium, terbium, yttrium, and europium, due to their roles in high-performance magnets, semiconductors, and data center hardware. Shortages against current or forecasted demand—driven by AI’s explosive growth in GPUs, cooling systems, and servers—would severely hamper scaling.
China dominates rare earth mining, producing over 60% globally, but the top five ex-China or major producers controlling significant shares of neodymium, dysprosium, terbium, yttrium, and europium supply are
1. MP Materials (USA)
2. Lynas Rare Earths (AUS)
3. Energy Fuels, (USA)
4. Iluka Resources, (AUS) and
5. Arafura Resources.(AUS)
My favourite Lynas
1. AI/EV Magnet Monopoly: #1 non-China NdPr producer, AI data centers & EVs devour tons. Demand exploding 53% YoY.
2. Revenue Doubling: FY26 forecast A$1.1B (from $557M) - NdPr prices +47% to A$72.5/kg.
3. Geopolitical Goldmine: Trump-era US pacts + China curbs = Lynas as Western supply king. Texas plant incoming.
4. Cash Fortress: A$1.03B reserves despite outages—funds Kalgoorlie/Malaysia expansions zero-debt.
5. Strong CEO with smooth transition - Amanda Lacaze remains CEO and Managing Director until FY26 end (June 2026). She announced her retirement on Jan 13, 2026, after 12 years leading Lynas from near-collapse to #1 non-China REE producer—share price up 37x.
6. Volatility Shield: Low-cost Mt Weld mine + hybrid power = margins crush peers in price swings.
7. Support levels $12-16 (near 50DMA) resistance $17.8- $22 BlackRock holds a minor stake (<5%). Overall positive momentum, tempered by cautious consensus.
8. Heavy REE Edge:Dy/Tb contracts ramp—diversifies beyond NdPr into defense/AI chips. Lynas’s REE edge is its breakthrough as the world’s only commercial producer of separated Heavy Rare Earths (HREEs) outside China—dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb)—critical for high-temp magnets in AI GPUs, EV motors, jets and missiles.
But bottom line: Geopolitics and AI demand provide tailwinds, but China dominance + ops risks mean dips to A$12-14 remain likely before sustained uplift.
What's your view?
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- JudyFrederick·01-26Lynas is a gem! Rare earths fuel AI's surge – solid pick. [看涨]1Report