To The Moon

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases for January 2026 (week of 26Jan2026) This week features several key economic indicators and events that will offer insights into the economy's health. On Monday, durable goods orders for November will be released. This data serves as a key measure of consumption and investment in the economy. Alongside this, the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence Index for January will be published. The previous index reading was 89.1, which pointed to declining consumer confidence. Additionally, President Trump is scheduled to deliver a speech on Wednesday, January 28. This event has the potential to introduce volatility to the markets, depending on the topics addressed and the market’s reaction. Crude oil inventory data will also be updated in the coming week. This information is closely watched as an indicator of trends among oil producers and is particularly relevant given ongoing changes in demand and consumption patterns. Perhaps the most anticipated economic decision this week is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement. According to various market surveys, the forecast is for the interest rate to remain unchanged at 3.75%. The outcome of this decision will be closely monitored by investors and analysts alike. Other notable releases include initial jobless claims data, with the previous figure standing at 200,000. This metric provides a timely indication of labour market conditions. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for December, released on a month-over-month basis, is another important data point this week. The PPI reflects inflation faced by producers, and can act as a leading indicator of inflationary pressures that may eventually be passed on to consumers. Additionally, the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for January will be reported. The previous reading was 42.7, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity. Finally, China’s manufacturing PMI for January will also be released. The prior figure was 50.1, suggesting a slight expansion in the country’s manufacturing sector. Is this a reflection of China’s domestic manufacturing or a reflection of the global demand? Earnings Calendar (26Jan2026) I am monitoring the earnings results from Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Tesla, UPS, GM, Chevron and ExxonMobil. Let us explore the recent performance of ExxonMobil. Stock Performance and Analyst Recommendations Technical analysis for ExxonMobil indicates a “Strong Buy” recommendation, suggesting favourable market signals and trends. In addition to technical factors, analyst sentiment supports a positive outlook for the stock, with a consensus rating of “Buy.” The current price target stands at $132.48. However, this target implies a potential downside of approximately 1.84%, reflecting a drop from the current trading price. ExxonMobil Earnings Highlights Revenue Growth ExxonMobil has demonstrated strong revenue growth over the past decade. The company’s revenue increased from $239 billion in 2015 to $339 billion in 2024. Notably, ExxonMobil achieved its highest annual revenue in 2022, reaching $398 billion. Profitability Gross profit saw an upward trajectory, growing from $56.2 billion in 2015 to $76.7 billion in 2024. The company recorded its highest gross profit in 2022, totalling $103 billion. Operating profit followed a similar pattern, rising from $12.8 billion in 2015 to $39.6 billion in 2024. The standout year for operating profit was 2022, when ExxonMobil posted $64.8 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) reflected these positive trends, with EPS increasing from $3.85 in 2015 to $7.84 in 2024. The peak EPS during this period was $13.26, also achieved in 2022. Dividend Performance Dividends per share have steadily climbed, growing from $2.88 in 2015 to $3.84 in 2024. This consistent increase highlights the company’s commitment to returning value to shareholders. Financial Health and Ratios ExxonMobil’s financial position remains robust, with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.2 and a Debt/Assets ratio of 0.1. These figures indicate a strong and healthy balance sheet. The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 18.4, suggesting an attractive valuation for investors. Over the past ten years, ExxonMobil has maintained median gross profit margins of 23.4% and free cash flow (FCF) margins of 6.0%. Given the above, ExxonMobil can be an interesting consideration for those looking for defensive stocks to reinforce their portfolio. Market Outlook of S&P500 (26Jan2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has completed a top crossover, which implies a bearish outlook. Moving Averages The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above both the 50-day and 200-day moving average (MA) lines. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in both the short-term and long-term outlooks. Furthermore, both the 50 MA and the 200 MA are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are converging. We can expect a change from the current bullish trend after the 3 lines have completed their overlap. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) currently registers at -0.03 and is also trending upward. This reading indicates that there is more selling pressure than buying, especially after crossing the middle “0” line. More Technical Analysis Based on the daily interval, 17 indicators display a “Buy” rating, while 2 display a “Sell” rating. This leads to a “Strong Buy” rating based on the daily interval. CNN Fear & Greed Index The market has fallen into the “Neutral” region, with an index score of 52 (down from 62). The market continues to trend towards the “Neutral” region, as per the chart above. Based on the data above, the latest top cross (daily interval) from MACD suggests a more “Bearish” tone. News and my thoughts from the past week (26Jan2026) Civil unrest. Jamie Dimon says that’s what happens when AI layoffs move faster than society can adapt. AI isn’t the danger. Speed is. If technological displacement arrives in sudden, concentrated waves, Dimon warned that the consequences could be destabilising. “You’ll have civil unrest.” - X user Amanda Goodall Trump admitted the reason he doesn’t want home prices to fall so people can afford them, is that current homeowners and mortgage lenders would lose money. But if homes are so overpriced that people can't afford to buy them, they’re not worth what people think. A crash is coming. - Peter Schiff One of the most overvalued stock markets by any metric - X user Lukas Ekwueme The Federal Reserve is injecting $55.3B into the financial system between Jan 20 and Feb 12 through Treasury reinvestments (about $15.4B) and reserve management purchases (around $40B in T-bills). - X user Jacob King "Interest on the US debt is ultimately what's predicted to destroy the US economy. That debt payments will eventually grow out of control, and the dollar will be abandoned because it essentially turns into monopoly money. A fair amount of folks believe the US debt is already out of control, which is why they're swapping to actual long-term assets like precious metals, nuclear goods, or refinement." - BlackRock CEO Larry Fink My Investing Muse (26Jan2026) Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news Amazon is planning a second round of job cuts next week as part of its broader goal of trimming some 30,000 corporate workers, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters Citi cutting 1,000 now. More layoffs coming in March. Announced after bonuses, of course. - X user Amanda Goodall 55% of companies expect layoffs in 2026, including 48% who say layoffs will definitely or probably occur in Q1. - X user Amanda Goodall 45% of employers post fake listings, per Forbes. - X user Unusual Whales 6 in 10 companies will conduct layoffs in 2026. By analyzing $4 trillion of shipments between January 2024 and November 2025, the Kiel Institute researchers found that foreign exporters absorbed only about 4% of the burden of last year's U.S. tariff increases by lowering their prices, while American consumers and importers absorbed 96%. - WSJ Tyson Foods mass layoffs take effect Tuesday.... nearly 5,000 workers gone across two states, with real consequences for U.S. food supply. - X user Amanda Goodall My Final Thoughts Davos 2026 highlighted a widening gap between the U.S. and NATO. President Trump now chairs the new $1B “Board of Peace” (originally for Gaza), while naval tensions escalate near Iran. Simultaneously, Greenland has become a flashpoint, drawing significant EU military resources. Corporate instability grows as Citibank and Amazon layoffs signal a trend; 60% of firms anticipate further cuts this year. Investors are now fixated on Tesla, Meta, and Microsoft earnings, demanding proof of AI returns to counter China’s rapid model advancements. This is one of the most “unaffordable” times for Americans. This can be seen in the chart above, coming to living on your own, marriage, having kids and home ownership. With gold, silver, and bonds hitting simultaneous record highs, the current market setup is atypical and defensive. A cautionary approach is highly recommended. Financial Strategy and Outlook Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk. As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities. Wishing everyone a successful week ahead. @TigerStars $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$