To The Moon

🌟🌟🌟Everyone is staring at 4 of the Magnificent 7 stocks this week Apple, Microsoft, Tesla and Meta.  Add the FOMC meeting and December PCE on Friday and you have a market primed for knee jerk reactions and hot takes.  But the real treasure that is hiding in plain sight is $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ .  It is still recovering from last year's trauma.  It is bruised from last year's series of bad news and down 34% in 2025.

United Health : My Contrarian Underdog 

Yes, the same United Health that spent last year getting punished for margin compression, rising medical costs, guidance cuts and a new CEO transition.  The same stock that analysts have been treating like a problem child. 

But here is what the surface level narrative misses :

UNH is stabilising around the mid USD 330s to USD 350s range, showing tight intraday trading and controlled volatility.  This is a sign that forced sellers are largely gone. 

Forecasts for early 2026 show steady revenue growth and a path back toward the high USD 300s and low USD 400s, with January to March projections all pointing to sequential improvement. 

The market is overly fixated on short term margin pressure, but the real story is the 2026 reset : ACA rebates, Medicare Advantage recalibration and Optum integration.  These are catalysts that could flip sentiment faster than people expect. 

This is exactly the kind of set up where the crowd is late and the contrarians get rewarded. 

Can United Health Recover? 

Short answer is a YES and faster than consensus expects. 

The stock is cheap at 18x earnings, especially for a company with UNH's scale and recurring revenue base.  Analysts acknowledge the risks but also highlight that the selloff has already priced in a lot of bad news. 

The pessimism is exactly why the upside is asymmetric. 

UNH does not need perfection.  It just needs stabilisation.  The 2026 reset is the kind of structural shift that can turn a "problem stock" into the comeback story of the year. 

Warren Buffett has bought UNH last year. As an astute investor he is not chasing a quarterly beat or a sentiment bounce.  He is making a  multi year conviction call rooted in UNH's durable cash flow, pricing power, demographic inevitability and a moat that widens when competitors stumble. 

As Warren Buffett likes to say "When there is Fear in the market, it is time to be greedy". 

That is why $UnitedHealth(UNH)$  is the underdog nobody sees coming. 

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