💥Rare Earths Explode: Will You Follow Trump’s $1.6B “Super Bet”?
Hi Tigers, Welcome to “What the Tigers say.”
This is a weekly column planned to share the great opinions from Tigers on a specific topic, and today our theme is the Rare Earths boom and Trump's strategic bet.
The market for critical minerals just witnessed a historic shift. On January 26, USA Rare Earth saw its stock price skyrocket 🚀. Before the market opened, shares surged as much as 62%, hitting a peak of $40.17 📈💥.
Behind the dramatic spike? A massive $1.6 billion strategic investment from the U.S. Department of Commerce 💰. The deal includes both equity acquisition and debt financing 🤝. Mark this moment — it's the largest single government bet on the rare earth sector to date 🇺🇸⚡.
With the government officially stepping in as a strategic stakeholder, how does this change the investment thesis?
Here is what our Tigers are saying about this policy-driven repricing.
This week, we’ve selected insights from —@Barcode @koolgal @MrzorroHow to navigate this sovereign repricing? And where is the next opportunity? Here is their take on the critical minerals supercycle.
🎁Special Notes: Whoever showed up on the “What the Tigers Say” column will receive 100 Tiger Coins and an exclusive interview invitation to honor your contribution.
1. @Barcode 🚨🇺🇸⚙️ $USAR: The $1.6B Trump Trade, Whale Call Stampede, and America’s Rare Earth Power Pivot ⚙️🇺🇸🚨
Key points:
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Sovereign Asset Repricing: $USA Rare Earth Inc.(USAR)$ isn't just a small-cap momentum play; it's a "national security asset." The $1.6B government injection signals a structural shift where policy, liquidity, and narrative align to anchor domestic industrial sovereignty.
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Whale Option Aggression: Institutional flow is screaming bullish. With call volume skewing heavily OTM (Out of The Money) and "repeated hit" sweeps on 2026 leaps, big money is positioning for a sustained valuation re-rating, not a quick flip.
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Fractal Price Targets: The chart mirrors a historical "boom-bust-base-relaunch" structure. Based on this symmetry and current volatility expansion, the technical setup targets an initial move to $35–$38, with a parabolic cycle retest window at $45–$50.
2. @koolgal Rare Earths: America's Magnet for the Future
Key points:
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Strategic Fundamentals: $USA Rare Earth Inc.(USAR)$ has graduated from speculative miner to strategic national project. With the Round Top deposit in Texas and heavy government debt/equity backing, the risk of execution is mitigated by massive policy support.
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The ETF Hedge Strategy: To offset single-stock volatility in $USA Rare Earth Inc.(USAR)$, balance the portfolio with $iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF(PICK)$. This provides exposure to stable giants like $BHP and $RIO that underpin global infrastructure.
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Sprint vs. Marathon: View $USA Rare Earth Inc.(USAR)$ as the daring "sprint" into the frontier of American independence, while the $PICK ETF represents the "steady march" of diversified resources. Combining them offers both the thrill of discovery and the discipline of scale.
3. @Mrzorro Trump Makes Another Move: Investing in USA Rare Earth – Here's a 'Mining Stock List' for You to Keep
Key points:
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The "Trump Effect" History: The $1.6B deal fits a profitable pattern. Previous beneficiaries of Trump's direct involvement or investment, such as $TMQ (+197%) and $INTC (+83%), saw massive surges, suggesting $USA Rare Earth Inc.(USAR)$ has a significant runway ahead.
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Vitamins of Industry: Rare earths are critical for defense and robotics. Beyond $USAR, investors should watch established players like $MP Materials Corp.(MP)$ (only scaled US producer) and emerging explorers like $Critical Metals Corp.(CRML)$ for sector-wide lift.
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Broaden the Watchlist: Don't stop on rare earths. Capital will likely rotate into other strategic "Trump Trade" resources, including $Lithium Americas Corp.(LAC)$, $Centrus(LEU)$, and $Freeport-McMoRan(FCX)$ as the US rebuilds its supply chain.
💬 Discussion
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✨Follow the Leader: Trump is putting real money on the table 💰. Do you trust his business acumen enough to follow him into this trade, or are you waiting for the hype to cool down?
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⚖️ Risk vs. Reward: Are you all-in on pure-plays like $USA Rare Earth Inc.(USAR)$ 🚀, or playing it safe with diversified giants in the $iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF(PICK)$ ? 🛡️
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🔮 Next Big Move: The "Trump Trade" is hunting resources 🎯. After Rare Earths, which sector do you think will get the next White House golden ticket? 🎫
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Trump’s involvement is a policy signal, not an investing guarantee. Markets reliably front-run his intentions, but fundamentals often lag. Following early can work tactically; chasing after parabolic moves usually does not. Treat this as a catalyst trade, not a conviction bet.
Risk vs Reward
Pure-plays like USA Rare Earth (USAR) offer maximum upside but carry execution, funding, and valuation risk. These are trading instruments.
Diversified exposure via iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF (PICK) offers durability and lower drawdown risk but less torque.
A small barbell allocation is more rational than all-in positioning.
Next Big Move
After rare earths, the most likely targets are:
1. Copper – critical for AI, grids, EVs; structurally undersupplied.
2. Uranium – energy security and defence alignment.
3. Grid infrastructure metals – aluminium, transformers, HV components.
After focusing on rare earths and critical minerals (including deep-sea mining permits and potential stakes in companies like USAR), analysts speculate that other sectors benefiting from national security and affordability priorities may be next.
Oil & Energy: The administration has openly
pushed U.S. oil suppliers to invest heavily in foreign oil infrastructure to secure global supply and has advocated for increasing domestic oil production.
Defense & Cybersecurity: Given heightened geopolitical tensions and a new "security supercycle," investments in defense systems, Al-driven defense, and satellite networks are seeing increased focus and government spending.
Domestic Manufacturing (Semiconductors & Pharma): Following the CHIPS Act, there is continued emphasis on reshoring and increasing domestic capacity in semiconductors, electronics, and pharmaceuticals to secure supply chains.
Pure-Plays (e.g., USA Rare Earth Inc. USAR): This strategy offers high potential upside if the company successfully scales its mine-to-magnet supply chain and benefits directly from U.S. government initiatives. However, USAR is currently a pre-revenue development company, making it a higher-risk, speculative investment susceptible to significant volatility.
Diversified Giants (e.g., iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF PICK): This ETF provides broad exposure to the global metals and mining industry (excluding precious metals), which includes large, established companies like BHP Group and Rio Tinto. It is less volatile than individual stocks but may offer less targeted upside from specific U.S. domestic policy wins. The ETF has a "Strong Buy" technical rating as of January 28, 2026.
特朗普总统的政府积极参与美国供应链安全，利用政策和直接投资（如潜在股权）的组合来支持关键部门。
商业敏锐度和市场影响：虽然政府领导下的股市过去的表现显示出整体收益，但具体的政策转变可能会带来波动。例如，最近不再保证关键矿物的价格下限导致稀土库存下滑。
考虑因素：投资者应该考虑到，在这些投资中，政治标准有时可能会凌驾于传统的经济效率之上，从而带来独特的风险以及政府支持的潜在好处。