To The Moon

Just now, lithography giant $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ released its fourth-quarter earnings report, delivering explosive results. Pre-market shares surged as much as 5.47%, climbing above $1,454:

As a result, semiconductor ETFs surged in premarket trading, with $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ climbing over 2.9%, $iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)$ rising more than 3%, $Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF(SOXQ)$ gaining over 2.4%, and $Leverage Shares 2X Long ASML Daily ETF(ASMG)$ soaring by 10.1%!

From an earnings standpoint, ASML’s fourth-quarter revenue came in at €9.72 billion, slightly above the €9.6 billion expected by analysts. On the profit side, earnings per share were €7.34, falling short of the €7.56 consensus estimate.

However, the market’s primary focus on ASML was its order intake. After all, ahead of this release, $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ — ASML’s largest customer — had already reported its Q4 results and significantly raised its capital expenditure outlook for 2026, fueling expectations that ASML’s orders would see a sharp increase.

Living up to those expectations, ASML’s fourth-quarter order intake surged to €13.158 billion, setting a new all-time record and blowing past analysts’ expectations of €6.85 billion.

In its Q4 report, ASML guided 2026 revenue at €34–39 billion, with a midpoint of €36.5 billion, implying 11.7% year-on-year growth, once again delivering double-digit expansion and well above the 7.6% growth expected by analysts.

In the earnings release, management struck an optimistic tone. CEO Christophe Fouquet said:

“In the last months, many of our customers have shared a notably more positive assessment of the medium-term market situation, primarily based on more robust expectations of the sustainability of AI-related demand. This is reflected in a significant increase in their medium-term capacity plans as well as our record order intake.”
“As a result, we expect 2026 to be another growth year for ASML, driven mainly by strong growth in EUV sales and growth across our installed base business. We will continue to invest in people and capabilities to support growth in 2026 and beyond.”

This statement is consistent with what TSMC conveyed in its own Q4 earnings report — namely, that AI demand is not a one-off surge but a sustainable trend, with the potential to deliver continued earnings growth for related companies.

From a valuation perspective, ASML's price-to-earnings ratio remains relatively affordable, with room to grow compared to the peak of the previous semiconductor bull market:

Considering ASML's profit recovery and today's announcement of a €12 billion share buyback program, ASML has even greater upside potential!

Among current ETFs, those with significant ASML exposure include:

$ASML Holding NV ADRhedged(ASMH)$ : Nearly 100% ASML exposure, low management fee (0.19%), and small scale. It's puzzling why single-stock ETFs exist—who's buying them? If you know, drop a comment below!

$Leverage Shares 2X Long ASML Daily ETF(ASMG)$ : A 2x leveraged long position on ASML, this single-stock leveraged product has delivered staggering gains exceeding 80% this year. However, its high management fees and tracking error make it suitable only for trend-following strategies.

$iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF(EWN)$ : Tracks Dutch companies, with ASML as its largest holding at nearly 26% of net assets! It features a low management fee of 0.49% and assets under management exceeding $300 million, delivering nearly 12% returns this year.

$VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ : The largest semiconductor ETF holds 6% of ASML, with the largest position in $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ at 18.8%:

$Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF(SOXQ)$ : Holding 4.7% of ASML with a management fee of just 0.19%, it ranks among the lowest in semiconductor ETFs: