To The Moon

Hi, Tigers 🐯

You may have seen semiconductors keep surging right?

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Semiconductor & Equipment Index is up around 45% year-to-date, making it one of the best-performing parts of the market so far.

Money flow backs this up. $iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)$ pulled in about $330 million over the past week, with shares outstanding up roughly 1.6%. At the same time, $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ remains very active, showing that short-term traders are still leaning bullish.

The fundamentals aren’t lagging either. Global semiconductor sales hit a record in late 2025, with November reaching US$75.3 billion (+~30% YoY). Memory is also holding up well, as DRAM and NAND pricing stays firm into early 2026.

In Tiger Community, many investors shared their Winning trades on $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ , $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ , $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , $iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)$ , or $INVESCO SEMICONDUCTORS ETF(PSI)$ .

How about you？Any successful sharing? If you still bet positive on these stocks, Feel free to open Tiger's Cash Boost Account to enlarge your buying power or through options strategy.

And welcome to leave comments to win Tiger Coins.

In this article, lets take a closer look at the key semiconductor stocks and ETFs.

I. In this article, lets take a closer look at the key semiconductor stocks and ETFs.

1. $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ | $1,461.80 ▼-2.18% 🏗️

• Fundamental: $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ dominates advanced lithography with ~90% global market share, supported by a €38.8bn backlog and €13.16bn in new orders (+85.6% YoY), underscoring strong long-term demand visibility.

• Technical: MACD remains in bullish territory (DIF 84.40 above DEA 73.21), but the narrowing histogram signals slowing upside momentum. Meanwhile, the 6-day RSI has cooled to 69.65 from overbought levels above 80, indicating that near-term excess has been largely digested.

• Outlook: Price action is likely to consolidate between $1,408 and $1,454 in the near term. A decisive close above $1,454 could open a retest of the $1,493 high, while a break below $1,408 would increase the risk of a deeper pullback toward $1,376–$1,350.

• Technical bias: Neutral-to-bullish, consolidation within a primary uptrend.

2. $Lam Research(LRCX)$ | $243.10 ▲+0.47% 🧪

• Fundamental: $Lam Research(LRCX)$ delivered record 2025 revenue of $20.6bn, driven by strong demand from HBM, NAND, and advanced packaging, positioning it well for the AI-led capex recovery.

• Technical: Volume reached 15.63M shares (volume ratio 1.37), confirming strong participation. MACD remains bullish (DIF 15.35 > DEA 14.35) with an expanding histogram (+2.00), while the 6-day RSI at 76.95 signals overbought conditions.

• Outlook: Likely consolidation between $237–$244. A break above $244 targets $250–$255, while a loss of $237 risks a pullback toward $230.

• Technical bias: Bullish, with short-term consolidation risk.

3. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ | $191.62 ▲+1.59% 🧠

• Fundamental: $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ remains the core AI compute platform, with continued ecosystem expansion supporting long-term demand across data centers, enterprise AI, and accelerated computing.

• Technical: Trading volume was steady at 149M shares (volume ratio 0.99), indicating balanced participation. The MACD histogram turned positive (+0.97) as DIF crossed above DEA, signaling building bullish momentum, while the 6-day RSI at 68.16 is approaching overbought levels, suggesting momentum is strong but may pause for consolidation.

• Outlook: Price is likely to consolidate near the $191.6–$195 resistance zone in the near term. A confirmed breakout above $195 could extend gains toward $195–$200, while failure to hold above $189.84 may trigger a pullback toward the $181 support.

• Technical bias: Bullish consolidation, with momentum improving but resistance overhead.

4. $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ | $69.80 ▲+7.90% ⚡

3x Leveraged Semiconductor ETF

• Strong momentum confirmed by price-volume expansion, but RSI >80 signals short-term overbought conditions.

• Expect high volatility and sharp pullbacks; suitable only for short-term tactical trades.

• Support to watch: $67.97, below which momentum may unwind quickly.

Risk profile: High.

5. $iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)$ | $364.50 ▲+2.67% 🧱

Large-Cap Semiconductor Benchmark ETF

• Breakout to new all-time highs with steady volume confirms broad-based sector strength.

• Holding above $362 keeps upside bias intact, with $370–$375 as the next target zone.

• Pullbacks toward $351–$356 should attract medium-term buyers.

Risk profile: Moderate, trend-stable.

6. $INVESCO SEMICONDUCTORS ETF(PSI)$ | $96.80 ▲+2.38% 🎯

Balanced Semiconductor Exposure

• Positive momentum supported by rising volume, with RSI still below extreme levels.

• A confirmed break above $97.16 would open upside toward $100–$102.

• Key support lies at $95, with secondary support near $93.

Risk profile: Moderate, balanced.

II. Why Semiconductors Are Moving Now

For Tigers who want the full picture, welcome to read more from other creator's posts.

• $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ 👉ASML's Earnings Explode, Semiconductor ETFs Poised for Takeoff?

• $Lam Research(LRCX)$ 👉Lam Research Rallies 7.00% Toward Its 52 Week High

Semiconductor👇

• Semiconductor Stars|Will INTC, TXN, RMBS, MCHP& MU Extend Momentum?

• 🎉29 US Stocks Hit New Highs: Exxon Leads the Tech and Commodities Uptrend

• TSMC Earnings Blowout — Is a New Semiconductor Rally Starting?

• Buy what the president says: tech, energy, defense, space, EVs

1） AI-Driven Demand Surge 🤖

AI isn't just a narrative—it's the primary demand engine. We're seeing insatiable appetite for GPUs, advanced logic chips, and HBM. Bottom line: chips are getting more complex, and every wafer now requires significantly more equipment and processing power.

2）Capex Recovery in Motion 💰

The cyclical drought is ending. Equipment order books—particularly in EUV lithography, etching, deposition, and advanced packaging—are filling up again. This visibility suggests the capex downcycle has bottomed.

3）Broad-Based Recovery Taking Hold 📈

The upcycle is extending beyond AI infrastructure. Memory (both DRAM and NAND), automotive, and industrial semiconductors are staging comebacks. AI workloads are driving massive storage upgrades, underpinning NAND and DRAM pricing power.

4）Oligopoly Structure = Pricing Power 🏆

The industry remains a fortress—a handful of players control mission-critical technologies. Companies with irreplaceable moats continue to command premium valuations and deliver resilient growth, even when markets get choppy.

III. Investment Strategy: How to Position

1. Read the Volatility Right

• Expect sharp swings around earnings. Don't panic on every dip.

• Healthy pullback: Profit-taking after strong results = buying opportunity

• Red flag: Weakness on order slowdowns or guidance cuts = time to reassess

2. Track the Two Core Engines, keep your eyes on the real catalysts:

• AI Infrastructure: Monitor equipment backlog trends and cloud capex guidance

• Memory Recovery: Watch DRAM/NAND spot prices and inventory digestion rates

3. Match Your Vehicle to Your Horizon

• Long-term (6-12 months): Build core positions in quality names and broad sector ETFs; accumulate on dips

• Short-term (<3 months): Reserve leveraged products (DLCs, warrants) for high-conviction, catalyst-driven trades only—keep position sizes tight

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