Jan Review: Gold/Silver/Bitcoin Crash —Is February for Buying or Bailing?
January trading has come to a close! While the three major U.S. indices finished in the green, the "Precious Metals Massacre" and the major leadership change at the Fed made this a highly unusual start to the year.
January Recap: S&P's "January Barometer," but Tech is Lagging?
In terms of historical win rates, January lived up to its reputation:
$S&P 500(.SPX)$: Up 1.37% (consistent with its 62% win rate since 1928).
$Dow Jones(.DJI)$ : The strongest performer, gaining 1.73% as value and blue-chip stocks took the lead.
$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$: Up only 0.95%, looking noticeably sluggish.
Despite the "January Barometer" flashing a green light for the year, the underperformance of tech stocks suggests that capital is being re-priced. The market is searching for a new narrative.
Month-End Earthquake: Gold/Silver Collapse, Bitcoin Stumbles
The end of January was nothing short of breathtaking. The primary trigger: Trump’s plan to nominate Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve.
Black Friday for Precious Metals:
$XAG/USD(XAGUSD.FOREX)$ : Plunged 26%, its largest historical drop! $SLV trading volume exploded past $40 billion.
$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ : Dropped 9%, suffering its worst single-day performance in over a decade.
A surging Dollar fueled by expectations for the new Fed Chair, combined with a market that was overstretched after weeks of endless rallying. The bubble popped instantly.
Crypto: $Bitcoin(BTC.USD.CC)$ fell to $74,600 (a 10-month low), while Ethereum retreated to levels not seen since June 2025. The anticipation of tighter liquidity is hitting risk assets hard.
February Outlook: Can the "January Effect" Hold?
1. Will "As Goes January, So Goes the Year" ring true?
Historically, a positive January suggests a bullish year. However, don't forget: After last year's January rise, the market saw three consecutive months of decline. Given the complexity of geopolitical shifts and the Fed's leadership transition, February may be a period of digestion for the "Warsh Shockwave."
2. Gold & Silver: Buying Opportunity or Falling Knife? The long-term case for gold (as a hedge and inflation shield) hasn't vanished, but the short-term technicals are severely damaged.
Let's Discuss:
Do you think this deep dive in Gold/Silver is a "Golden Pit" buying opportunity?
With tech underperforming, are you trimming your exposure to Big Tech in February?
Will 2026 follow the "January Barometer" to a bullish finish, or are we in for a repeat of last year's Q1 pullback?
How do you review earnings performance in Jan.?
Drop your thoughts in the comments below, and let's get ready for February!
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That is why deep dives in Gold and Silver often feel like a Golden Pit - terrifying on the way down but historically rewarding for anyone brave enough to climb in with a shovel and a long term view.
If you believe in Gold and Silver as insurance against human overreaction , then January's drop looks less like danger and more like a big sale.
I am ready to climb in with my shovel and start digging in to find my Golden Pit. My future self will thank me.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @CaptainTiger @TigerClub
The collapse in gold & silver looked like a crowded trade unwinding fast, driven by a stronger dollar & expectations of a more hawkish Fed under Kevin Warsh. Crypto selling alongside precious metals reinforces the same message: liquidity assumptions are changing, speculative assets are feeling the pressure first.
Heading into February, I’m staying cautious. A positive January is historically supportive, but it doesn’t rule out near-term digestion, especially with a Fed leadership shift. I’m not rushing to buy gold or silver yet & on tech I’m staying selective — trimming excess exposure & focusing on earnings quality rather than chasing the bounce.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub
The most telling stat of January isn't the Gold crash, but the Nasdaq's sluggishness (+0.95%). When the market leaders (Big Tech) start lagging behind blue chips ($Dow Jones(.DJI)$ ), it’s usually a signal that the "easy money" phase is over.The "Warsh Shockwave" is a wake-up call that liquidity conditions might tighten faster than priced in. This explains the synchronized sell-off in zero-yield assets like Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin ($74k).Feb Outlook: I suspect February will be a choppy month of digestion. I am trimming high-beta tech exposure and holding more cash to see if the "January Effect" was a false signal. Safety first! 🛡️$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$
密碼：$比特幣(BTC.USD.CC)$跌到$74,600（10個月低點），而以太幣則回落至2025年6月以來的最高水平。流動性收緊的預期正在重創風險資產。
The deep dive in Gold/Silver may offer a 'Golden Pit' buying opportunity for inflation, but a stronger dollar under a hawkish Fed could push prices lower before leveling
With tech underperforming, trimming exposure may be wise, notably given slowing growth and rising rates; however, AI and infrastructure prospects imply rebalancing to mitigate risk while holding resilient stocks
The January Barometer signals early volatility, as the "Warsh Shock" and interest rates will likely dictate a recovery or Q1 pullback
January earnings offer key economic insights; strong outlooks reflect resilience, while weak results trigger broader struggles
February markets depend on Fed chair, earnings, and rates; flexibility is key as tougher conditions may require scaling back even as selective entries emerge。。。
$标普500(.SPX)$：向上1.37%（与其1928年以来62%的胜率一致）。
$道琼斯(.DJI)$：表现最强的，获得1.73%随着价值和蓝筹股领涨。
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$：仅向上0.95%，看起来明显呆滞。
尽管“一月晴雨表”为今年亮起了绿灯，但科技股的表现不佳表明资本正在重新定价。市场正在寻找新的叙事。
Big Tech: Take 10-15% off the table if you are up significantly. Re-allocate to "Value" or "Defensive" (like the ex-dividend stocks we discussed).
Market Sentiment: Stay bullish for the long term, but expect February to be a "choppy" month where the market "digests" the January gains.
Possibly a buying opportunity, but not an aggressive one. The selloff was driven more by forced liquidations than weakening fundamentals. Gold’s structural support remains intact, though near-term volatility is likely. Gradual accumulation is preferable. Silver remains higher risk due to speculation.
Big Tech in February
Selective trimming makes sense. Underperformance points to leadership fatigue, not a broken AI story. Reducing crowded, fully valued names helps manage concentration risk while keeping core exposure.
January Barometer for 2026
Supportive, but not decisive. Policy uncertainty and cross-asset volatility suggest a choppy Q1. A pullback would not rule out a constructive 2026.
January earnings
Solid but uneven. Guidance mattered more than beats. Markets rewarded clarity and punished fragility, reinforcing a stock-picker’s market.
但市场并不关心民间传说。他们关心收益、流动性和宏观头条新闻。
去年第一季度的回调提醒人们，年初的乐观情绪可能比新年决心消失得更快。2026年会重复这种模式吗？绝对地。它也会反弹至看涨收盘吗？也绝对。
一月没有给我们预言。它给了我们一个警告——那种说“用情绪纪律处理”的警告。
但事实是：在时间胶囊里呆一个月毫无意义。当投资是关于复利、耐心和拒绝让短期戏剧打断我们的长期命运时，就不会了。
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerClub @老虎船长