Alphabet vs Amazon Earnings: Who Turns AI Spend Into Revenue?
This week, $Alphabet(GOOG)$, with a market cap exceeding $4 trillion, and $Amazon.com(AMZN)$, currently streamlining its organization, will take center stage. This time, the market is looking beyond "Large Model" narratives to focus on real margins and ROI.
$Alphabet(GOOG)$: The "Harvest Season" of Full-Stack AI
Power of Gemini 3.0: BofA expects Search growth to rise to 15% (from 13%), driven by higher conversion rates from AI Search.
Cloud (GCP) Acceleration: With self-developed TPUs (70% unit cost reduction) and mega-deals like Anthropic, Cloud has become the fastest growth engine.
Apple Endorsement: The AI partnership with Apple is seen as a ultimate validation of its tech strength, though valuation concerns (higher than MSFT) remain.
$Amazon.com(AMZN)$: Beware the Lingering "Bullwhip Effect"
Inventory Alert: Q3 2025 inventory hit a record peak of $41.5 billion, up 21.28% YoY, far outstripping the 13% revenue growth.
Margins Peaking? Market expects Q4 net margin to pull back to 9.93% (from 11.7%), hit by inventory-driven promotions and logistics costs.
Organizational Slimming: Can the plan to cut 16,000 corporate roles offset inventory costs and sustain its premium valuation?
This Week’s Two Big Tech Reports — Google vs. Amazon, Who Beats?
Which one can hit a new all-time high?
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同时，GCP看起来结构更强自主开发的TPU正在降低成本，而像Anthropic这样的大型交易则支持规模和利润。即使估值担忧挥之不去，与苹果人工智能的合作仍然是对谷歌全栈能力的有力验证。
相比之下，我对 $亚马逊(AMZN)$ 在短期内。尽管组织进行了瘦身，但库存增加和预期的利润率回调仍然构成风险。本周，我认为市场倾向于更清晰的投资回报率-我相信谷歌收盘价可以突破340美元，在其全栈AI边缘的推动下，更有机会刷新历史新高。
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analysts predoction-Alphabet currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) due to its extensive recent rally, while Amazon holds a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), suggesting analysts see more immediate upside potential for Amazon stock if it delivers a strong report.
Alphabet (GOOGL): Based on the most recent intraday data and pre-earnings volatility, Alphabet is expected to close near $344.16.
Amazon (AMZN): Amazon is projected to close around $239.61.
利潤率見頂？市場預計，受庫存驅動的促銷和物流成本的打擊，第四季度淨利潤率將回落至9.93%（從11.7%）。
云(GCP)加速：凭借自研TPU（单位成本降低70%）和像Anthropic这样的大型交易，云已经成为增长最快的引擎。
苹果背书：与苹果的人工智能合作被视为对其技术实力的最终验证，尽管估值担忧（高于MSFT）仍然存在。
Alphabet
Alphabet’s proof point is Search + Cloud. If Gemini features lift ad yield and engagement without compressing margins, and Google Cloud shows faster growth with improving operating margins, that is direct evidence AI is monetising at scale. Risk: high AI capex diluting margins if revenue lift lags.
Amazon
Amazon’s test is AWS. Clear signs that AI workloads are driving reacceleration in AWS growth and margin expansion would validate monetisation more cleanly. Enterprise contracts, higher attach rates, and operating leverage make AI revenue easier to attribute.
Verdict
• Cleaner AI monetisation signal: Amazon (AWS is a paid, usage-driven platform).
• Bigger strategic payoff if it lands: Alphabet (AI defending Search margins and scaling Cloud).
In short, Amazon offers clearer near-term proof; Alphabet offers higher upside if execution matches expectations.