A regime shift is spreading across the AI and high beta complex, and Palantir now provides the clearest signal that momentum has decisively unwound after an extended multi quarter run.
Despite delivering a strong earnings beat, price action confirms that positioning and valuation, not fundamentals, are now driving the tape. This is where crowded winners either reset or break.
$PLTR now trades roughly 37% below its 52 week highs near $207 and sits well beneath the 200 day moving average around $160, a level that anchored the advance through 2024 and 2025. Once that long held trend support fails, behaviour flips. Dip buying fades and rallies meet supply.
Technically, a confirmed head and shoulders structure sits on both daily and weekly charts, with neckline violation signalling distribution rather than consolidation. If selling pressure persists, the $106 to $110 region becomes the first meaningful zone where longer term risk reward improves for accumulation.
🧠 Earnings Beat Failed to Reverse the Momentum Shift
Palantir reported Q4 earnings on February 2, beating expectations with adjusted EPS of $0.25 versus $0.23 expected and revenue near $1.41B versus roughly $1.34B consensus.
Full year 2025 revenue grew 56%, while management guided to at least 61% growth in 2026, driven by accelerating US commercial momentum, which surged 137% year over year in Q4, alongside continued defence demand. HSBC followed with a Buy upgrade and a $205 target.
Shares initially surged 6 to 10% post report, then quickly reversed into a sharp retreat, falling roughly 11% in a single session and now trading near $131.
The earnings beat did not stop the unwind. Elevated valuation, still near 200x earnings, combined with positioning de risking turned strong results into liquidity for profit taking.
🎯 Options Flow and Volatility Show Hedging Pressure
Options activity remains elevated, with roughly 831k contracts traded, more than double typical volume.
Calls still slightly lead puts, producing a put call ratio near 0.77 versus a normal level around 0.73, signalling activity but not capitulation. Implied volatility sits near 58 to 60, implying expected daily moves near $6.
Put call skew remains steep, signalling ongoing demand for downside protection. Traders are hedging rather than panicking.
🏦 Insider De Risking Versus Retail Dip Buying
Insider behaviour adds another layer. Director Alexander Moore sold roughly $3M worth of shares, around 20,000 shares, via a pre arranged 10b5 1 plan on earnings day itself, extending a broader pattern of executive trimming.
This is not panic selling, but insiders are clearly comfortable monetising elevated prices.
Retail traders, meanwhile, appear to be doing the opposite. Social chatter and options flow show persistent dip buying, anchored in belief that Palantir’s AI runway still justifies higher long term valuations.
The core tension remains clear. Smart money de risks while retail doubles down.
⚠️ Risk Off Rotation Expands Beyond PLTR
Selling pressure is not isolated. Retail favourites and speculative growth names including $ASTS, $RKLB, $QBTS and $RGTI are also under pressure, confirming a broader rotation away from crowded growth exposure.
🔭 Path Forward, Positioning Must Clear
Earnings have now passed and failed to reverse the unwind. Structure continues to favour caution until sentiment stabilises or fresh inflows emerge.
Momentum remains in unwind mode, and absent new catalysts or rotation back into growth, deeper support zones near $106 to $110 remain the first areas where risk reward becomes attractive again.
Until positioning clears, rallies are likely to meet supply rather than attract sustained buying.
Save this level map and revisit after earnings follow through. The next major move usually begins where exhaustion meets opportunity.
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