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⚙️ Thursday — Futures Market Monitor price fluctuations in energy, precious metals, and agricultural futures.
[Crude Oil]WTI crude oil futures rose 1.05% to settle at $64.63 a barrel; Brent crude oil futures rose 0.87% to settle at $69.40 a barrel.
[Gold]COMEX gold futures rose 1.53% to $5,107.8 per ounce; COMEX silver futures rose 4.6% to $84.085 per ounce.
📌【Today’s Question】
Strong non-farm payroll data dampened expectations of interest rate cuts. How many rate cuts do you anticipate this year, and why?
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The bigger driver was guidance. Vertiv forecast 2026 adjusted EPS of $5.97–$6.07, far above Wall Street’s prior estimates, alongside net sales of $13.25–$13.75 billion, also well ahead of consensus. This sharp upgrade materially improved investor confidence in the company’s earnings trajectory.
Overall, the results help ease concerns that the AI and data center infrastructure trade is losing steam. Vertiv’s accelerating orders and upgraded outlook suggest demand remains strong, reinforcing VRT’s role as a key beneficiary of ongoing AI-driven infrastructure investment.
@TigerStars @Tiger_comments
Following the release of exceptionally strong January 2026 non-farm payroll data, market expectations have consolidated around two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts for the remainder of 2026. While earlier forecasts in late 2025 varied between one and three cuts, the recent labor market resilience has significantly reduced the likelihood of near-term easing, effectively eliminating the probability of a cut at the March 17–18 meeting.
The first rate cut is now widely anticipated to occur in June or July 2026.
My base case: two cuts this year, likely in the second half.
Why not more?
• Jobs growth remains firm
• Wage pressures have not fully cooled
• Core inflation is easing but not convincingly at 2%
Why not zero?
• Policy is still restrictive
• Growth is slowing gradually
• Financial conditions could tighten unexpectedly
Risk scenario: if inflation re-accelerates, we may see only one cut. If growth cracks sharply, three cuts return to the table.
For markets, timing matters more than count. Later cuts support risk assets, but delay near-term liquidity boosts.
Consumers realised that there is no longer good value to be had, which is the market these businesses built their fundamentals on.
Then it was recently revealed that Chipotle's ceo said that the company could keep raising prices and customers would not mind.
I might have remembered wrongly, but I recall seeing an article where a fast food chain had to commit to re-training a large proportion of its branches to serve correct portion sizes (they were serving lesser).
The fast food industry is waiting for the emergence of ambitious competition that optimise operations (expand logically, train properly, etc.) and stick to the fundamentals (decent food with good value proposition)...
Saying that, I suspect it would be a China chain, if they had enough vision.
The key support level is USD 150 and staying above this is critical for a potential rebound rally.
With Bitcoin stumbling and the bears growing bolder, tonight's report isn't just about revenue. It is a battle for the soul of the digital economy.
The charts are screaming caution but in the world of crypto, the boldest move happens when the darkness is deepest.
Buckle up, this rollercoaster is getting started.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub @Tiger_SG @CaptainTiger
虽然市场原本期待更激进的宽松政策，但强劲的就业数据支撑了「Higher for Longer」（高利率维持更久）的论点。