To The Moon

My Investing Muse

Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies

26% of the 7.5 million unemployed in the US actively searching for work have been looking for more than six months, per FT. The U.S. labour market faced a significant setback in January 2026, with employers announcing 108,435 job cuts—the highest January total since the Great Recession in 2009. - X user unusual whales

FedEx plans to close over 475 stations due to Network 2.0 Plan - X user MacroEdge

Salesforce lays off nearly 1,000 employees in early 2026 ahead of Q4 earnings report - X user MacroEdge

Are the jobs in India permanent? Will the jobs be replaced by AI over the years?

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9 large companies filed for bankruptcy in the US last week. This brings the 3-week average to 6, the highest rate since the 2020 pandemic. This means at least 18 companies with liabilities at or above $50 million have gone bankrupt over the last 3 weeks. In the past, only the brief post-2001 recession period, the 2008 Financial Crisis, and the 2020 pandemic saw a higher rate of large bankruptcies. To put this into perspective, the peak this century was a 3-week average of 9, seen in 2009. The bankruptcy wave is accelerating. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

TARGET CUTS ABOUT 500 JOBS IN DISTRIBUTION CENTERS: CNBC

NIKE’S CONVERSE IS PREPARING LAYOFFS AND RESTRUCTURING AS SHOE SALES SLUMP 30%, WITH STAFF TOLD TO WORK FROM HOME AND SENIOR EXECUTIVES EXITING UNDER TURNAROUND PRESSURE. - First Squawk

Target to cut hundreds of corporate jobs - X user MacroEdge

Worker shortage could hurt AI construction boom, BlackRock said.

My Final Thoughts

Market after 13Feb2026

Market Leadership and Future Rally Potential

With most of the earnings reports from the “Magnificent 7” companies now completed, questions arise about which entities might drive the market to new highs. The market itself remains unpredictable and capable of delivering unexpected outcomes. Many participants are hoping for an upward movement, reflecting widespread optimism and reliance on continued market growth.

Service Pricing and the Evolution of AI

Some services have been priced at a premium, without recognising their transition into commodities. Artificial intelligence is still in its early stages, yet its impact is already significant. This raises questions about the future of enterprise solutions, such as SAP and Salesforce, and how they will adapt as AI becomes increasingly integrated and widespread.

Limits of Monetary Policy and Cultural Dynamics

We can print money. However, we cannot print energy, infrastructure, supply chain and respect. The conflict with China is not over trade, military or innovation but rather one of culture. The Art of the Deal may not work with cultures where respect is the main currency.

U.S.-Iran Tensions and Potential Implications

Recent developments indicate that President Trump is preparing American military forces for a potential conflict with Iran. This situation raises several important concerns. First, any miscalculation in military strategy could inadvertently unite America’s adversaries, leading them to align themselves with Iran, even if such alignment is not their original intention. There is also a notable risk that this conflict could be misinterpreted within the broader Islamic world, potentially placing the United States in opposition to Islamic nations, regardless of its actual objectives. Furthermore, the timing is particularly sensitive, as the Muslim community will be observing Ramadan, a sacred month of fasting. Military actions during this period could negatively impact America’s desired outcomes and escalate tensions further.

Domestic Issues: Justice, Social Sentiment, and Economic Concerns

Updates regarding the Epstein files reveal that delays in the pursuit of justice can lead to undesirable consequences for society. There are reports suggesting that younger generations in America are experiencing a sense of hopelessness, largely driven by challenges related to affordability. This growing disillusionment poses a threat to the stability of the current capitalist and democratic systems in the United States. The emergence of a Muslim socialist leader in New York underscores the reality of shifting social and political dynamics, which warrant careful attention.

AI Investment and Infrastructure Requirements

It is rumoured that four major companies within the so-called “Magnificent 7” are planning to allocate approximately $700 billion in capital expenditures for AI-related investments in 2026. This trend merits close monitoring, as the scope of these investments extends beyond the financial aspect. To support such significant advancements in artificial intelligence, there must also be a comprehensive ecosystem that includes energy grids, maintenance, a skilled labour force, infrastructure, and appropriate policy frameworks.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

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