A Whale Goes All-In Long NVDA with $10M+ Call Order
$NVDA$
The bull-bear battle this year has never been more intense.
Just when I thought this week's NVDA earnings were a foregone conclusion, this order hit the tape:
Buy Call $NVDA 20260320 205.0 CALL$
Block print: 29k contracts opened. Estimated notional: $13M+.
Meanwhile, the weekly call spread camp is running:
Sell Call 195 $NVDA 20260227 195.0 CALL$ / Buy Call 202.5 $NVDA 20260227 202.5 CALL$ .
Translation: this week, 195 likely caps. And looking at put flow, downside could stretch below 180. But here’s the twist — call strikes below 200 are thinning out. Totally different from two weeks ago.
The setup: bulls want 200+. Bears target sub-180, some even eyeing a halving.
What’s fueling this divergence? AI apps. The narrative flipped in the past two weeks — new AI use cases are emerging, but they aren't coming from the usual mega-cap names. In fact, some legacy names might lose relevance. And those same names? They’re NVDA’s biggest customers. Enter the tug-of-war between calls and puts.
Market inertia still points to a March pullback. Sort open interest and you’ll see most puts are March expiries, clustered around 170. Meanwhile, calls suggest NVDA stays below 200 into mid-March.
So NVDA earnings may decide the market’s next leg. SPY OI points to a potential dip to 670. Earnings likely print fine — inline. But the market may use it as an excuse to sell the news.
But what if NVDA rips past 200?
Not impossible. The setup is fragile — tariffs, Iran, the China visit. Any misstep, and even if tech’s already bled, there’s room lower.
Feels like last year all over again. $200 AMZN, $380 MSFT — good levels, but the structure’s too brittle.
NVDA should print fine. Eyes will be on the 2027 outlook. I’ll stick to selling the 180 put $NVDA 20260227 180.0 PUT$ .
$IGV$
Software ETF looks like it’s putting in a floor around 70. A large put buy at the Jan 2027 80 strike $IGV 20270115 80.0 PUT$ caught my eye.
Top holdings like MSFT and PLTR are already near lows. But if you're dipping, pick stocks, not ETFs. Moats differ.
$AMD$
AMD’s setup looks cleaner than NVDA’s — no panic pricing. For sell puts, 180 looks right: $AMD 20260306 180.0 PUT$ .
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