A Simple Guide to Profiting from META’s Q2 Earnings
2025 Q2 Earnings Expectations $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Gradually improving AI tools are significantly enhancing ad spend ROI.With tariff policy easing, e-commerce ad spending resumed growth in May and June.Meta’s Q2 revenue is projected to reach $45.5 billion, a 16.5% YoY increase, exceeding expectations.Operating profit is expected to hit $17.4 billion, also surpassing forecasts.The market is concerned about a potential sharp increase in 2026 capital expenditures.How to Evaluate META’s Earnings OutlookAI tool investments are paying off, and the core advertising business remains robust.The company made a massive investment in data centers during Q2, spending hundreds of billions, indicating strong confidence in mid-term revenue growth.While in
$Alphabet(GOOGL)$$Alphabet(GOOG)$ On Wednesday, I wasn’t feeling well and didn’t get to review the options data for new positions, but I had a hunch that Google’s earnings would be decent.Out of curiosity, I checked my phone, and to my surprise, someone opened a massive position the day before the earnings report: 60,000 contracts of the $GOOGL 20250919 210.0 CALL$ , with a total transaction value of over $23 million—executed as an on-exchange trade.Theoretically, this signals extremely bullish sentiment. However, I held back from going all in. While the earnings were unlikely to disappoint, I wasn’t convinced there would be a massiv
A Simple Guide to Profiting from Microsoft’s Q4 Fiscal Earnings
2025 Q4 Earnings Expectations $Microsoft(MSFT)$ Microsoft’s 2025 fiscal Q4 falls in the calendar Q2 of 2025.Azure is expected to show a year-over-year growth rate of 35.5% (with AI contributing 18%), exceeding the prior forecast of 34.2% (AI contribution 17%).Commercial Office business growth is projected to reach 13%, driven by upgrades to E3/E5 plans and the adoption of Copilot.Revenue for fiscal 2026 is forecasted to grow by 14%, consistent with fiscal 2025.Fiscal 2026 capital expenditures are projected to increase to $99.1 billion, but will remain around 31% of revenue.How to Evaluate Microsoft’s Earnings OutlookSince Q3, Microsoft’s stock price has risen by 30%, reflecting strong market confidence.The earnings outlook is highly optimistic, wi
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading strategies with you!1.TRADE PLAN for Thursday 📈 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ resilient again today, SPX held above 6300 and broke out above 6334. SPX to 6369 in play next, if through we can see 6400.SPX July 24 6400C is best above 6369 $Webull Corp(BULL)$ breakout today above 16.82, this can run to 21-24 next.BULL Aug 22 20C can work above 17 $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ up 16% today.. HIMS to 67 coming in August.HIMS Aug 1 60C is best above 58 tomorrowAll dips continue to get bought up in the market, If SPX holds 6300 and $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ above 560, price action still c
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some option strategies with you!1. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ releases earnings after the closing bell Wednesday. Expected move is ~7%. Got the following positions heading into earnings. Here is our #Optionselling game plan for tomorrow.1. Hold the Aug 15 $285 naked puts.2. Hold the Aug 15 $300 cash-secured put (CSP), but am tempted to roll to the July 25 expiry $325 strike.3. Roll the Jan 16 2026 $300 CSP to the Aug 15 $355 strike (thus creating a synthetic long).4. Will hold one of the Jun 17 2027 $600 naked calls, but am debating what to do with the other three calls. Am leaning towards taking them off the table for tomorrow and then re-writing post-earnings.5. Hold the Jan 15 2027 $230 CSPs.280 is a demand zone
A Simple Guide to Profiting from Tesla's Q2 Earnings Report
2025 Q2 Earnings ExpectationsTesla’s Q2 delivery numbers are projected to be 384,000 vehicles, up 14% quarter-over-quarter, far exceeding the earlier forecast of 2%.June sales were exceptionally strong, with monthly deliveries accounting for 47% of the entire quarter.The new U.S. tax law eliminating EV tax credits is set to take effect on September 30, potentially creating a Q3 pre-purchase rush.The new Model Y is expected to support sales growth in Q3 and Q4.A low-cost new vehicle may launch in Q4.Robotaxi operations have started, with fleet expansion expected to exceed 1,000 vehicles within the next 6–9 months.How to Evaluate Tesla's Earnings ExpectationsJune’s sales surge may not be sustainable, and the stock price has likely already priced in the good news.The anticipated pre-purchase
OPEN: Market Maker Exiting; Above $3.5, It's Up to Fate
Conclusion: As the title suggests, the market maker isn't greedy. They exited around $3.5, and the stock price has a chance of dropping below $2. There’s also a possibility of a second wave of manipulation by another market maker later.On Monday, $Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ stock surged by 118%, with options trading volume skyrocketing 74 times to a total of 3.38 million contracts, making it the third most traded security after SPY and QQQ.The implied volatility of the $5 call options expiring this week once reached 737%, with an annualized yield of 1,492% from selling these contracts!The reason behind OPEN's rally is reportedly because the founder of EMJ Capital gave it a price target of $82, citing OPEN's business transformation.Frankly, t
By Lawrence G. McMillan This article was originally published in The Option Strategist Newsletter Volume 7, No. 12 on June 25, 1998. With the frequent number of 100-plus point moves in the market – some in each direction – there has been a growing number of commentaries regarding market volatility. However, there has been very little, if any, discussion of just what to expect from the market at these levels. In this week’s article, we’re going to take a look at various measures of market volatility, and then see if we can determine what kind of volatility is “normal” for various scenarios. The best way to measure market volatility is statistically. That’s what we call the “historic” volatility. It measures how fast the market has been moving around in the past. This is a pretty s
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Earnings season over the next two weeks may bring surprises.Current options activity resembles a collar strategy: sell call + buy put.Institutional Arbitrage Strategy:Selling calls at $175 and $177.5.Hedging by buying calls at $182.5 and $187.5.Above $190: Most bullish call options are being sold off.Bearish bets continue to anticipate a pullback, but there is no consensus among bears. The median target for a pullback is around $165, with most bets on the decline occurring this week or next. This aligns with what I mentioned last week: a spike after earnings, followed by a pullback. $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ : Similar bearish bets are being placed, with deep out-of-the-money puts (e.g.
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading strategies with you!1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ TRADE PLAN 📈 📉 CALLS: SPX above 6300 SPX July 25 6350C T 6339,6369 SL 6279 📈 PUTS: SPX under 6251 SPX July 25 6200P T 6200,6187 SL 6279 📉 Last Week Recap:SPX tested the 6,300 zone but failed to break through cleanly. Still hovering at highs. Let's see if SPX can hold above 6251 as a higher low next weekKey Levels:Resistance: 6,300 → 6,334 → 6,369Support: 6,222 → 6,171What I'm Watching:Above 6,300 can trigger the next breakout leg to 6369. If6251 fails, watch for dip buying at 6200. There's no big economic data this week. We just have earnings to look out for starting with $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ on Wednesday.Image2.
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you!We just crossed into EXTREME GREED territory. By the time scared money is comfortable to buy, the short term top will be in. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has moved over 2000 points in the past 3.5 months. It's been a continuous uptrend will small pull backs along the way. In the SHORT TERM, if we see negative news that triggers $S&P 500(.SPX)$ to give up the previous ATH at 6147, this is the time to de-risk and wait for the bottom to form.There will be many many more opportunities coming especially in the Fall and Winter. Exciting times ahead with $Robinhood(HOOD)$
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some option strategies with you!1. $Chime Financial, Inc.(CHYM)$ position is profitable. 🤑- Will close the 30P and look to write the 25P or 30P for August 15 expiry. Might wait to see what price action does heading into earnings week before taking that put-write trade. - Will let the naked calls expire worthless and write naked calls on the Aug 15 expiry after earnings ... although ... writing the 55C seems like a "safe" bet before earnings.The $30 level has proven to be strong support for now. Tutes are defending that 27 IPO price.Image2.Looks like $Datadog(DDOG)$ did not want to consolidate. Filled that gap and bounced.Gonna write a CSP at the $135 put strike, July
Simple and Clear Guide to Profiting from Google’s Q2 Earnings
Safely Riding the Wave of Google’s Earnings.AI Is Not Yet a Threat to Google SearchAccording to a Citi survey, Google Search remains the core of most users' internet usage. In Q2, the U.S. search market share stayed at a healthy level of about 87%.Google’s core business use cases (e.g., shopping and travel) continue to grow, particularly among younger demographics.Current AI agents are primarily used for research-driven tasks, such as website translation, academic research, and travel planning, rather than shopping-related commercial activities.What to Expect from Google’s Q2 EarningsTotal Revenue: Predicted to be $93.7 billion, representing a 10.6% year-over-year growth.Search Business: Expected to grow 8.8%.YouTube Ad Revenue: Predicted to grow 10.0%.Google Cloud: OpenAI signed an agreem
$VXX$ $TVIX$ By Lawrence G. McMillan Stocks have continued to plow ahead, with $SPX making repeated new all-time highs this week. For the most part, these new highs have been accompanied by strong internal indicators, too. There is no formal resistance with $SPX at an all-time high. There is now support at 6200 (this week's low, reached on a mini- selling spree when it was rumored that Fed Chair Powell would be replaced), 6150 (the previous highs), 6020-6060 (the gap on the chart, circled in Figure 1), and 5920. Any move below 5920 would be very bearish, but I don't expect to see that. Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. That's because they are continuing to decline. They h
Will Coinbase Continue Rising as Crypto Legislation Nears?
The U.S. Congress is advancing three major cryptocurrency bills that could impact the $2.8 trillion global crypto market. This marks the beginning of comprehensive regulation for the industry.What Changes Do the Bills Bring?Stablecoin RegulationStablecoins like USDC must hold full reserves, similar to bank deposits, and provide monthly public ledgers. Compliant companies will benefit from this regulation.Token ClassificationTokens like Bitcoin are classified as "commodities" regulated by the CFTC, while some tokens are deemed "securities" under SEC oversight. This clarity helps exchanges know which tokens can be legally traded.Ban on Government Digital Currencies (CBDCs)To address concerns about government-issued digital currencies enabling surveillance of all spending records, the legisla
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ TSMC's (TSM) earnings report saw the stock price spike and then pull back. I believe the main issue is similar to what was mentioned yesterday: Q3 is expected to grow 4% quarter-over-quarter, but the numbers aren’t particularly enticing. Additionally, the stock had already hit new highs prior to the report. Even though management expressed strong optimism about AI prospects, the stock price gains remained within the forecast range.This quarter’s earnings reports may exhibit a similar pattern across the board: Q2 significantly overdraws full-year expectations, leading to high openings followed by sell-offs after the disclosure.It is worth paying attention to data center-related stocks. TSMC management indica
$MVB.AU$ $.SPX$ $SPY$ By Lawrence G. McMillan The S&P 500 ($SPX) remains in a solid uptrend, but yesterday marked a notable shift: a confirmed McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal was triggered. This is the first such signal in this market cycle — and it may mark the start of a short-term pullback. The MVB system identifies statistically significant overbought and oversold conditions using proprietary volatility bands. When price action pierces the upper band and then reverses, it can indicate that momentum is fading. In this case, $SPX is targeting a move back toward the –4σ band, currently near 6030. Importantly, the SPX was not alone
A Simple Guide to Profiting from META’s Q2 Earnings
2025 Q2 Earnings Expectations $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Gradually improving AI tools are significantly enhancing ad spend ROI.With tariff policy easing, e-commerce ad spending resumed growth in May and June.Meta’s Q2 revenue is projected to reach $45.5 billion, a 16.5% YoY increase, exceeding expectations.Operating profit is expected to hit $17.4 billion, also surpassing forecasts.The market is concerned about a potential sharp increase in 2026 capital expenditures.How to Evaluate META’s Earnings OutlookAI tool investments are paying off, and the core advertising business remains robust.The company made a massive investment in data centers during Q2, spending hundreds of billions, indicating strong confidence in mid-term revenue growth.While in
$Alphabet(GOOGL)$$Alphabet(GOOG)$ On Wednesday, I wasn’t feeling well and didn’t get to review the options data for new positions, but I had a hunch that Google’s earnings would be decent.Out of curiosity, I checked my phone, and to my surprise, someone opened a massive position the day before the earnings report: 60,000 contracts of the $GOOGL 20250919 210.0 CALL$ , with a total transaction value of over $23 million—executed as an on-exchange trade.Theoretically, this signals extremely bullish sentiment. However, I held back from going all in. While the earnings were unlikely to disappoint, I wasn’t convinced there would be a massiv
OPEN: Market Maker Exiting; Above $3.5, It's Up to Fate
Conclusion: As the title suggests, the market maker isn't greedy. They exited around $3.5, and the stock price has a chance of dropping below $2. There’s also a possibility of a second wave of manipulation by another market maker later.On Monday, $Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ stock surged by 118%, with options trading volume skyrocketing 74 times to a total of 3.38 million contracts, making it the third most traded security after SPY and QQQ.The implied volatility of the $5 call options expiring this week once reached 737%, with an annualized yield of 1,492% from selling these contracts!The reason behind OPEN's rally is reportedly because the founder of EMJ Capital gave it a price target of $82, citing OPEN's business transformation.Frankly, t
A Simple Guide to Profiting from Microsoft’s Q4 Fiscal Earnings
2025 Q4 Earnings Expectations $Microsoft(MSFT)$ Microsoft’s 2025 fiscal Q4 falls in the calendar Q2 of 2025.Azure is expected to show a year-over-year growth rate of 35.5% (with AI contributing 18%), exceeding the prior forecast of 34.2% (AI contribution 17%).Commercial Office business growth is projected to reach 13%, driven by upgrades to E3/E5 plans and the adoption of Copilot.Revenue for fiscal 2026 is forecasted to grow by 14%, consistent with fiscal 2025.Fiscal 2026 capital expenditures are projected to increase to $99.1 billion, but will remain around 31% of revenue.How to Evaluate Microsoft’s Earnings OutlookSince Q3, Microsoft’s stock price has risen by 30%, reflecting strong market confidence.The earnings outlook is highly optimistic, wi
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading strategies with you!1.TRADE PLAN for Thursday 📈 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ resilient again today, SPX held above 6300 and broke out above 6334. SPX to 6369 in play next, if through we can see 6400.SPX July 24 6400C is best above 6369 $Webull Corp(BULL)$ breakout today above 16.82, this can run to 21-24 next.BULL Aug 22 20C can work above 17 $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ up 16% today.. HIMS to 67 coming in August.HIMS Aug 1 60C is best above 58 tomorrowAll dips continue to get bought up in the market, If SPX holds 6300 and $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ above 560, price action still c
A Simple Guide to Profiting from Tesla's Q2 Earnings Report
2025 Q2 Earnings ExpectationsTesla’s Q2 delivery numbers are projected to be 384,000 vehicles, up 14% quarter-over-quarter, far exceeding the earlier forecast of 2%.June sales were exceptionally strong, with monthly deliveries accounting for 47% of the entire quarter.The new U.S. tax law eliminating EV tax credits is set to take effect on September 30, potentially creating a Q3 pre-purchase rush.The new Model Y is expected to support sales growth in Q3 and Q4.A low-cost new vehicle may launch in Q4.Robotaxi operations have started, with fleet expansion expected to exceed 1,000 vehicles within the next 6–9 months.How to Evaluate Tesla's Earnings ExpectationsJune’s sales surge may not be sustainable, and the stock price has likely already priced in the good news.The anticipated pre-purchase
By Lawrence G. McMillan This article was originally published in The Option Strategist Newsletter Volume 7, No. 12 on June 25, 1998. With the frequent number of 100-plus point moves in the market – some in each direction – there has been a growing number of commentaries regarding market volatility. However, there has been very little, if any, discussion of just what to expect from the market at these levels. In this week’s article, we’re going to take a look at various measures of market volatility, and then see if we can determine what kind of volatility is “normal” for various scenarios. The best way to measure market volatility is statistically. That’s what we call the “historic” volatility. It measures how fast the market has been moving around in the past. This is a pretty s
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some option strategies with you!1. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ releases earnings after the closing bell Wednesday. Expected move is ~7%. Got the following positions heading into earnings. Here is our #Optionselling game plan for tomorrow.1. Hold the Aug 15 $285 naked puts.2. Hold the Aug 15 $300 cash-secured put (CSP), but am tempted to roll to the July 25 expiry $325 strike.3. Roll the Jan 16 2026 $300 CSP to the Aug 15 $355 strike (thus creating a synthetic long).4. Will hold one of the Jun 17 2027 $600 naked calls, but am debating what to do with the other three calls. Am leaning towards taking them off the table for tomorrow and then re-writing post-earnings.5. Hold the Jan 15 2027 $230 CSPs.280 is a demand zone
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Earnings season over the next two weeks may bring surprises.Current options activity resembles a collar strategy: sell call + buy put.Institutional Arbitrage Strategy:Selling calls at $175 and $177.5.Hedging by buying calls at $182.5 and $187.5.Above $190: Most bullish call options are being sold off.Bearish bets continue to anticipate a pullback, but there is no consensus among bears. The median target for a pullback is around $165, with most bets on the decline occurring this week or next. This aligns with what I mentioned last week: a spike after earnings, followed by a pullback. $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ : Similar bearish bets are being placed, with deep out-of-the-money puts (e.g.
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading strategies with you!1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ TRADE PLAN 📈 📉 CALLS: SPX above 6300 SPX July 25 6350C T 6339,6369 SL 6279 📈 PUTS: SPX under 6251 SPX July 25 6200P T 6200,6187 SL 6279 📉 Last Week Recap:SPX tested the 6,300 zone but failed to break through cleanly. Still hovering at highs. Let's see if SPX can hold above 6251 as a higher low next weekKey Levels:Resistance: 6,300 → 6,334 → 6,369Support: 6,222 → 6,171What I'm Watching:Above 6,300 can trigger the next breakout leg to 6369. If6251 fails, watch for dip buying at 6200. There's no big economic data this week. We just have earnings to look out for starting with $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ on Wednesday.Image2.
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some option strategies with you!1. $Chime Financial, Inc.(CHYM)$ position is profitable. 🤑- Will close the 30P and look to write the 25P or 30P for August 15 expiry. Might wait to see what price action does heading into earnings week before taking that put-write trade. - Will let the naked calls expire worthless and write naked calls on the Aug 15 expiry after earnings ... although ... writing the 55C seems like a "safe" bet before earnings.The $30 level has proven to be strong support for now. Tutes are defending that 27 IPO price.Image2.Looks like $Datadog(DDOG)$ did not want to consolidate. Filled that gap and bounced.Gonna write a CSP at the $135 put strike, July
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you!We just crossed into EXTREME GREED territory. By the time scared money is comfortable to buy, the short term top will be in. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has moved over 2000 points in the past 3.5 months. It's been a continuous uptrend will small pull backs along the way. In the SHORT TERM, if we see negative news that triggers $S&P 500(.SPX)$ to give up the previous ATH at 6147, this is the time to de-risk and wait for the bottom to form.There will be many many more opportunities coming especially in the Fall and Winter. Exciting times ahead with $Robinhood(HOOD)$
Simple and Clear Guide to Profiting from Google’s Q2 Earnings
Safely Riding the Wave of Google’s Earnings.AI Is Not Yet a Threat to Google SearchAccording to a Citi survey, Google Search remains the core of most users' internet usage. In Q2, the U.S. search market share stayed at a healthy level of about 87%.Google’s core business use cases (e.g., shopping and travel) continue to grow, particularly among younger demographics.Current AI agents are primarily used for research-driven tasks, such as website translation, academic research, and travel planning, rather than shopping-related commercial activities.What to Expect from Google’s Q2 EarningsTotal Revenue: Predicted to be $93.7 billion, representing a 10.6% year-over-year growth.Search Business: Expected to grow 8.8%.YouTube Ad Revenue: Predicted to grow 10.0%.Google Cloud: OpenAI signed an agreem
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ TSMC's (TSM) earnings report saw the stock price spike and then pull back. I believe the main issue is similar to what was mentioned yesterday: Q3 is expected to grow 4% quarter-over-quarter, but the numbers aren’t particularly enticing. Additionally, the stock had already hit new highs prior to the report. Even though management expressed strong optimism about AI prospects, the stock price gains remained within the forecast range.This quarter’s earnings reports may exhibit a similar pattern across the board: Q2 significantly overdraws full-year expectations, leading to high openings followed by sell-offs after the disclosure.It is worth paying attention to data center-related stocks. TSMC management indica
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ TSMC's (TSM) earnings report is scheduled for Thursday, with mixed expectations:Earnings Positives: Strong Q2 data, with an 11% quarter-over-quarter growth; full-year revenue guidance may be raised.Potential Earnings Negatives: Average performance expected for Q3 and Q4, with Q3 growth projected at 3-6% QoQ and a conservative outlook for Q4 at -6%.Overall, the positives seem to have been priced in, such as the potential upward revision of full-year revenue guidance, while the earnings report may confirm the negative expectations.The anticipated volatility for this earnings report is 4.6%, with a trading range of $224–246.Two main strategies are being adopted for this earnings report:Simple bullish strategy:
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Institutions continued to sell call options at 167.5 and 170 this week. Currently, there are 140,000 open interest contracts for the 170 call, and any strike with more than 100,000 open interest warrants attention.The largest open interest for puts expiring this week is at 165, 162.5, and 160 strikes. Coupled with additional 160 put positions across other expirations, it’s clear that the bears are hoping for NVIDIA to pull back to 160 this week.However, the 160 put isn’t strictly bearish. For example, the majority of the 160 puts expiring on August 15th and August 29th are sold positions, signaling that many traders believe NVIDIA will remain above 155 before the earnings report.On Monday’s open, NVIDIA briefly dipped to 161.7 befor
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ The bullish trend is very strong, but bearish crash bets are starting again. Next week, it will either rise normally or experience a flash crash.Institutions are selling calls at 170 and hedging at 177.5. Bullish options are seeing a large number of new positions for the following weeks, presenting an optimistic landscape, though I can't say for sure.Bearish options are being opened for puts expiring on the 18th at strike prices of 140 and 141. Additionally, there's significant open interest for the halving level at 95, but this doesn't correspond to bearish positions on $SPY$.I lean toward normal trading next week, and my position is sell call 170 + sell put 160. If NVIDIA’s stock price breaks 168, I'll consider rolling the positio