Circle's "Google Moment" Coming? Will You Chase the Growth Story?
Q4 revenue hit $770 million, far exceeding market expectations of $740 million; adjusted EBITDA soared 412% YoY. Following the release of the earnings report, $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ surged nearly 35%! Against the backdrop of overall volatility in the crypto market, this report acted like a "shot of adrenaline," with many even believing that today's Bitcoin rise was driven by Circle.
1. Stellar earnings data proves the 30% surge!
In a market where SaaS is generally being shorted, Circle's subscription revenue is instead growing significantly. It’s not that the subscription model no longer works, but whether your service meets the needs of the new era.
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Revenue: Q4 recorded $770 million, up 77% YoY. Total annual revenue reached $2.75 billion.
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USDC Circulation: Reached $75.3 billion, up 72% YoY; On-chain Volume reached $11.9 trillion in Q4 alone, up 247% YoY.
This figure crushes doubts that Circle would collapse during a Fed rate-cutting cycle. While Fed rate cuts do affect Circle's yield per asset, the surge in USDC circulation has offset the impact of declining yields.
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Profitability (EPS & EBITDA): EPS was $0.43 (market expectation was only $0.16), exceeding expectations by 168%. Adjusted EBITDA recorded $167 million, with a profit margin as high as 54%.
2. Circle's "Google Moment"? New growth story solves market concerns!
In addition to the key figures above, the earnings report also provided a strong response to various past doubts. Circle is transforming from being highly dependent on interest spread income to becoming a more versatile infrastructure, growing from a heavy reliance on distribution platforms like Coinbase to achieving independent and autonomous growth.
If Arc is a "highway" (underlying blockchain) built by Circle, then Circle Payments Network (CPN) is the "toll station, entrance/exit, and logistics center" on that road. Simply put, CPN is a set of payment infrastructure (API-driven) provided by Circle that integrates the traditional banking system with blockchain technology. Its core mission is to solve a century-old puzzle: how to make "fiat in banks" and "digital currency on-chain" convert and complete payments seamlessly.
Top-tier stablecoin issuers all want to build their own "highways." Circle has Arc; Tether also has Stable and Plasma. Only by mastering the underlying Layer 1 can one achieve autonomous gas fees (paying directly with USDC), fully controllable compliance, and absolute sovereignty over asset settlement.
The ceiling for Circle's valuation has been opened. Considering the liquidity from the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, the imminent passage of the Clarity Act, the popularity of the Polymarket prediction market brought by the World Cup, and Meta restarting its stablecoin business... the current stock price is just the starting point. Circle's future is "the stars and the sea."
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In the future, will stablecoins drift further away from cryptocurrencies, or will they continue to drive cryptocurrencies upward?
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Can we still chase the rally after Circle's surge? Or take profits now?
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After BTC's recent rebound, will there be a larger decline or continued bottoming?
Leave your comments to win tiger coins!
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More importantly, Circle is evolving beyond reliance on Coinbase and positioning itself as infrastructure. Arc and its payments network show it wants to own the pipes between banks and blockchain — that’s where the long-term moat lies.
As for strategy, I’m not blindly chasing after such a sharp spike, but I’m also not rushing to take profits if the thesis is strengthening. Stablecoins, in my view, remain the liquidity engine for assets like Bitcoin. Near term, I expect consolidation; structurally, I stay constructive.
@TigerStars @TigerClub @Tiger_comments
比特币最近反弹至68,000-69,000美元左右，但技术指标仍受到“看跌寒意”的严重影响。
当前区间：BTC被困在60,000美元（主要支撑）和72,000美元（第一个主要阻力）之间。
下行风险：多位分析师警告称，如果未能守住60,000美元，将出现“更大的跌幅”，在最坏的周期情况下，看跌目标将延伸至50,000美元甚至38,000美元。
看涨催化剂：需要持续突破75,000-76,000美元才能使看跌趋势失效。机构对2026年底的长期目标仍然乐观，范围为120,000美元至175,000美元。
继第四季度盈利大幅超出预期后，Circle的股价于2026年2月25日飙升近35%。
业绩与定位：虽然收入同比增长77%，但分析师指出，这一激增的部分原因是过度拥挤的看跌押注的轧空。
“获利了结”论点：该股仍较2025年高点下跌70%以上，管理层发布了保守的2026年指引，预计USDC增长将放缓至40%（2025年为72%）。
“追逐”论点：分析师的平均目标价仍在129-141美元左右，这意味着对于稳定币基础设施的长期信徒来说，较目前约83美元的水平有很大的潜在上涨空间。
雖然它們作爲“避風港”和支付工具變得越來越明顯，但它們仍然是推動加密貨幣更廣泛反彈的主要流動性來源。
穩定幣與比特幣等波動性資產之間的關係正在轉向互補但不同市場結構。
Stablecoins are undergoing a structural shift, moving from mere speculation vehicles to foundational financial infrastructure.
Deepening Integration: Stablecoins like USDC and USDT are increasingly used for cross-border B2B settlements, payroll, and everyday commerce, particularly in emerging markets.
Driving Growth: Rather than drifting away, stablecoins are acting as a "structural tailwind" for broader crypto adoption.
Bifurcation: The market is splitting into a Regulated Layer (e.g., USDC, which is MiCA-compliant and bank-integrated) and a Sovereign Layer (e.g., USDT, which dominates offshore liquidity but faces higher regulatory scrutiny).
Technical analysts see the surge past the USD 77 resistance as a breakaway gap that could signal a major new uptrend.
Another major catalyst is the Circle Payments Network or CPN. It isn't just a platform. It has moved Circle from just a stablecoin issuer to a global financial utility.
CPN is also being engineered for Autonomous AI Agents. This is Circle's Agentic AI Moonshot and the market is enormous. Expect trillions of micro transactions in the Edge AI Explosion.
At the last closing price of USD 87.21, Circle has the potential to skyrocket with exponential growth ahead.🚀🚀🚀🌛🌛🌛💰💰💰
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub @CaptainTiger
我倾向于“短期脱钩、长期共振”。监管清晰后，稳定币会先成为支付层基础设施，但流动性最终仍会回流风险资产。
2️⃣ 股价还能追吗
情绪面已极热，35%跳涨后更像估值重定价而非趋势起点。若是中长期逻辑投资，可以等回撤；短线追高性价比不高。
3️⃣ BTC走势
当前更像流动性驱动的修复行情，在 Federal Reserve 路径未明前，大概率维持震荡筑底，而不是单边行情。
2. Circle’s surge is at a time cryptocoin values have fallen. The catalyst for price growth in cryptocoins is not known at this time with the market in long term decline.
3. $BTC Digital(BTCT)$ is in a long term bear trend which is primed for a rebound to new highs due to increased interest in cryptocoins and high prices for alternatives in gold