Where Will We Bottom This Week?
$SPY$
SPY's path lower is becoming clearer — steadily grinding toward the 200-day moving average at 655.
Notable flows:
Weekly put spread: buy 655 $SPY 20260313 655.0 PUT$ , sell 635 $SPY 20260313 635.0 PUT$ .
April put spread: buy 657 $SPY 20260402 657.0 PUT$ , sell 590 $SPY 20260402 590.0 PUT$ .
Moral of the story: don't try to catch the knife before the 200-day MA.
Whether we go sub-655? Hard to say. Trump's tweets aren't running the show anymore.
$USO$
Oil and oil ETFs look like they'll resolve direction by March 20.
Call spread holders rolled up and in: closed the April 120–135 spread, reopened March 20: buy 120 $USO 20260320 120.0 CALL$ , sell 135 $USO 20260320 135.0 CALL$ .
Rolling in expiry usually signals the final leg of a move.
Notably, both $USO 20260320 120.0 CALL$ and $USO 20260320 135.0 CALL$ saw closing activity at the open today.
After this final melt-up, put flows suggest oil holds above 90 for at least two months.
Still, not enough to short based solely on this.
$NVDA$
Will NVDA hit 165 this week? It's a real question. If Iran–Israel cools, selling the 170 put could work. But war is unpredictable — if you sell puts, be ready to take assignment.
Calls: sell above 185. 190+ safer. Institutional spread: sell 185 $NVDA 20260313 185.0 CALL$ , buy 192.5 $NVDA 20260313 192.5 CALL$ .
This week we fear both the crash and the rip.
$AMD$
Sell put 172.5 $AMD 20260313 172.5 PUT$ — 33k opened.
$AVGO$
Sell put 325 $AVGO 20260313 325.0 PUT$ — 18k opened. Bullish conviction in a sea of red. Backed by $10B buyback and strong FCF.
$AMZN$
Top tech short this week? Amazon.
200 put $AMZN 20260313 200.0 PUT$ — 88k opened.
205 put $AMZN 20260313 205.0 PUT$ — 57k opened.
210 put $AMZN 20260313 210.0 PUT$ — 22k opened.
Iran reportedly hit an Amazon data center — same as MSFT, but MSFT puts aren't this aggressive. Expect AMZN to hover 390–400.
$KWEB$
Bullish flows continue: buy 32 call $KWEB 20260417 32.0 CALL$ + sell 28 put $KWEB 20260417 28.0 PUT$ — 20k+ contracts.
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