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📈 Wednesday — Options Market Analyze options open interest and implied volatility to track short-term market movements.
Top 10 bullish stocks: NVIDIA, Warner Bros. Discovery, Ford, Ondas Holdings Inc., Advanced Micro Devices, Olaplex Holdings, Inc., Tesla Motors, Pfizer, MARA Holdings, Clover Health Corp
Top 10 bearish stocks: United Airlines, Block, Inc., Freeport-McMoRan, SoFi Technologies Inc., SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC, Opendoor Technologies Inc, Intel, Hecla Mining, Unity Software Inc., GameStop
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Which stock options do you currently hold? Are you bullish or bearish? Why?
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令我印象深刻的是月活跃用户数下降，但付费用户和ARPPU上升。这告诉我TME现在正在优化每个用户的价值。“超级会员”战略是关键——通过更好的内容和优质体验推动更高的支出，而不仅仅是涨价。
与此同时，类似直播赛事的非订阅收入增长迅速，增添了第二个增长引擎。虽然用户增长可能面临来自短视频平台的压力，但我认为TME正在发展成为一个更有利可图的多流货币化平台。
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Today's "Options Wednesday" shows clear divergence in sentiment across top tickers:
Bullish Momentum:
NVIDIA (NVDA): Maintains a dominant bullish lean with a Put/Call open interest ratio of 0.74 [1.5.1]. Traders are heavily eyeing the $185 strike for near-term calls.
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD): Seeing unusual activity following news that CEO David Zaslav could net up to $887M from the Paramount-Skydance deal completion.
Bearish Pressure:
United Airlines (UAL): Under pressure due to surging energy costs and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affecting fuel prices. Analysts recently downgraded the stock to "Hold".
Intel (INTC): Sentiment has soured slightly after NVIDIA's GTC announcements (Vera CPU) suggested Intel might be sidelined in certain AI data-center roadmaps.
目前的市場環境並非盲目樂觀，而是建立在「利差收窄」與「AI 生產力革命」的雙重邏輯之上。根據聯準會最新的點陣圖顯示，市場預期利率已進入下行軌道，這對於科技股等成長型資產是重大利好，因為低利率環境能顯著降低企業的融資成本並提升估值溢價。從數據來看，標普 500 指數中科技龍頭的平均利潤率依然維持在 20% 以上的高位，遠超市場平均水平，這證明了大型企業在面對通脹波動時具備極強的議價能力與現金流韌性。
我之所以看漲，核心動能來自於 AI 算力基礎設施的建設尚未見頂。雖然市場偶爾擔心泡沫，但觀察輝達（NVIDIA）等硬體巨頭的最新財報，其數據中心收入的增速依然超過三位數，這說明雲端服務供應商（CSP）的資本支出仍在擴張。當前標普 500 的預期本益比雖處於歷史高位區間，但若扣除估值偏高的科技七巨頭，其餘成份股的估值仍算合理。因此，隨著資金從龍頭股擴散至其他板塊，市場的牛市根基反而會變得更加穩固。
然而，這種看漲立場必須配合對地緣政治與通脹反覆的警覺。如果核心 CPI 無法穩定降至目標區間，導致降息預期延後，市場將會出現劇烈的估值修正。總括而言，在企業盈利持續增長的支撐下，我認為市場目前的上升趨勢具備實質支撐，短期的波動更像是健康的回調而非崩盤的開端。