[Stock Prediction] Tencent or Alibaba — Which one are you betting on this earnings season?
This week, two Chinese tech giants are stepping into the spotlight: $TENCENT(00700)$ and $BABA-W(09988)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ Which one are you betting on this earnings season?
What to Watch
$TENCENT(00700)$ reports on March 18
Wall Street is expecting revenue of about RMB 193.5 billion, up 14.6% from a year ago. EPS is expected to come in at RMB 7.02, up 28.5%.
Tencent’s main business still looks strong.
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Gaming should remain the backbone, with older hit titles still bringing in cash and newer games adding extra support. Its international gaming business is also expected to stay strong.
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Advertising is another bright spot. Video Accounts, Search, and Mini Programs are still driving ad growth, and AI tools are helping Tencent target ads more efficiently.
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The biggest question is margins. Tencent has been spending more on AI, so investors will want to see how much that spending is starting to weigh on profits.
$BABA-W(09988)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ reports on March 19
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The market is expecting revenue of about RMB 291.2 billion, up 4.1% year over year. EPS is expected to be RMB 12.1, which would be down sharply from last year.
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Alibaba’s story is more of a transition story.
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Cloud and AI are the biggest areas to watch. Investors want to know whether Alibaba’s AI push is turning into real business growth, especially in cloud.
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Its commerce business is still important, but margins are under pressure as the company keeps spending to grow instant retail and defend market share.
That means Alibaba may still deliver solid growth, but the market will be watching closely to see whether all this heavy spending is actually starting to pay off.
How to Join
Drop your pick in the comments:
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Tencent or Alibaba — Which one are you betting on this earnings season?
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Feel free to explain your take using whatever angle you want — AI, cloud, gaming, ads, margins, or valuation.
Rewards
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Tigers who guess correctly will split 1,000 Tiger Coins.
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We’ll also randomly pick 1 lucky user to receive Tiger merch or 100 Tiger Coins.
Event Period
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Now through March 19, 8:00 PM Beijing Time
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While Alibaba offers an enticing "deep value" play with its lower valuation, Tencent remains the superior machine for converting technology into immediate, high-margin profit. The most compelling evidence lies in how each giant integrates Artificial Intelligence. Alibaba is fighting a capital-intensive war in the Cloud sector, where price wars and heavy infrastructure spending often eat into margins. In contrast, Tencent has quietly deployed AI as a surgical tool within its WeChat ecosystem. By using AI to refine ad targeting, Tencent saw its advertising revenue jump by nearly 20%, essentially extracting more value from its existing traffic without the massive overhead of a price-war-prone Cloud business.
Alibaba $Alibaba(09988)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ is in transition. Cloud & AI are the key growth drivers, but heavy investment in instant retail and market share defense is weighing on profits, making near-term performance less predictable. If its AI monetization starts to show traction, Alibaba could surprise on the upside, but the risk is still higher compared to Tencent.
I’m betting on Tencent for stable short-term results, while keeping a close eye on Alibaba for signs that its AI & cloud investments are paying off. It’s a trade-off between near-term predictability & long-term potential.
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