Gold Plunges — Is It Time to Buy the Dip?
Gold fell more than 8% intraday, breaking below $4,200 and reaching the $4,100 level. It has now declined for multiple consecutive days, wiping out all of this year’s gains.
On March 22, US President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran in the evening New York time, demanding that it reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days or face attacks on its power facilities. Iran responded that if attacked, it would “completely close” the strait and target energy and infrastructure. This escalation directly pushed oil prices higher.
Rising oil prices have changed the market’s view on inflation. As energy costs increase, investors are reassessing the US inflation path, believing that the previous disinflation trend may be interrupted. In this context, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year have clearly diminished, while expectations for rates to remain higher for longer have strengthened.
On March 18, the Federal Reserve announced its latest policy decision, keeping interest rates unchanged. After the meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that inflation remains above target and policy needs to remain cautious. This shifted market expectations from rate cuts toward a prolonged period of higher interest rates.
Changes in rate expectations have directly impacted gold. As a non-yielding asset, gold becomes less attractive when interest rates are expected to stay high or even rise. As a result, investors have reduced allocations, with some funds rotating into US dollar assets, putting continued downward pressure on gold prices.
Investor behavior has also amplified the decline. Since the conflict began on February 28, some investors have sold gold amid market volatility to cover losses in equities and other assets. This forced selling has intensified during the decline, accelerating the downward move.
In addition, gold’s previous strong rally has contributed to the correction. Gold rose about 65% in 2025 and reached historically elevated levels by the end of February. When macro expectations shift, such high-performing assets are often the first to be reduced, further deepening the pullback.
From a market structure perspective, gold is currently driven more by interest rates and liquidity than by traditional safe-haven demand. As long as rate expectations do not clearly turn, gold is likely to remain in a weak and volatile range in the short term. Given the current market, are you bearish or bullish on gold going forward? Share your view in the comments.
Related ETFs:
From the perspective of scale and fees, among physical gold ETFs, $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ has approximately $155 billion in assets under management with an expense ratio of 0.40%, remaining the largest gold ETF globally. $Gold Trust Ishares(IAU)$ has around $70 billion in assets with a lower expense ratio of 0.25%, making it more suitable for long-term allocation. $Spdr Gold Minishares Trust(GLDM)$ has about $29 billion in assets with an expense ratio of just 0.10%, representing a low-cost version that has seen steady inflows in recent years.
Among gold mining ETFs, $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX)$ manages about $24.7 billion with an expense ratio of 0.50% and mainly covers large global gold mining companies. $VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF(GDXJ)$ has around $8.1 billion in assets with the same expense ratio of 0.50%, but focuses on smaller mining firms and therefore exhibits higher volatility. $iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF(RING)$ manages about $2.8 billion with an expense ratio of 0.39%, tracking a global gold mining index with relatively lower fees.
Among leveraged products, $Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares(NUGT)$ has approximately $0.9 billion in assets with an expense ratio of 0.75%. $ProShares Ultra Gold(UGL)$ manages around $1.0 billion with an expense ratio of 0.95%, providing 2x exposure to gold prices and showing amplified volatility during gold price corrections.
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Now is the time to be a buyer. Gold remains the ultimate hedge against credit risk and currency debasement in 2026’s fragmented global economy. The current "plunge" is merely a technical "reset" that clears the path for gold to challenge its previous highs. This is a battle of conviction; while the majority fixates on the short-term red candles, the astute observer recognizes a prime opportunity to lock in a core position at a discount. Gold is simply "crouching" before its next leap toward the $6,000 milestone.
For the SPDR Gold Shares, key levels to watch are around $400 as immediate support, followed by a stronger support zone at $385–$390, and a deeper level near $360–$370 if macro conditions remain tight.
黄金不是不会涨，而是现在市场还没到“必须持有它”的阶段。真正的大行情，往往是在大家不再关心它的时候才开始。
原因很简单：当前环境本质是滞胀风险在抬头。油价高、增长弱，这种组合对股票不友好，但对黄金的中长期逻辑反而是加分项。只是这个逻辑不会马上兑现，中间会经历一段“高利率压制期”。
当股市下跌、波动率上升时，很多资金需要补保证金或者降低整体风险，这时候最容易卖掉的，往往是有盈利、流动性好的资产——而黄金刚好符合这两个条件。之前涨了65%，大家账面都有利润，一旦需要现金，就会优先卖它。
再加上像 SPDR Gold ETF、iShares Gold Trust 这种ETF，一旦出现赎回，会形成“机械性卖压”，进一步放大跌幅。
这一步很关键，因为黄金真正的定价锚，是利率而不是避险情绪。
先讲我的结论：
短期偏空，中长期不悲观，但节奏很关键。
That said, I’m not fully bearish on the bigger picture. If geopolitical tensions stay elevated and oil prices remain high, inflation could stay sticky, which may support gold over time. Real yields are the key—once they peak or decline, gold could stabilize and recover.
For now, I see this as a correction rather than a breakdown. I’m staying on the sidelines and waiting for clearer signals before acting, as the short-term bias still feels tilted to the downside.
@CC on ETFs @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @TigerClub