Trade With Trump’s Rhythm: Is Stagflation Really Coming?
With Trump restarting “TACO”, coupled with rampant rumors that he might visit China in April, global financial markets have once again entered the absolute-dominance zone of the “US stock first principles: just follow Trump’s calls.” $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$
1. Macro strategists’ “Ragnarok”: Trump becomes the only right one
Remember those highly praised strategists at Deutsche Bank, Citi, Goldman, and Morgan Stanley? Now in the face of absolute power, technical analysis turns into mysticism.
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100% bottom-fishing success rate: Trump tells you to buy, ignore the earnings report.
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100% crude oil short success rate: Trump says oil is too high — even if the Middle East is on fire, the shorts have to retreat.
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Middle East chaos: Even if the war worsens, if Trump says talks are coming, the market obeys.
The current market logic is simple: the world’s best macro analysts are at Mar-a-Lago.
2. Stock market joke: Why always a “five-day negotiation cycle”?
Why does he always set a “five-day” negotiation window? Because there are five trading days in a week.
Friday close: Shouting, threatening, extreme pressure — leaving everyone anxious over the weekend.
Before Monday open: Another TACO. Due to time zones, East Asian markets (A-shares, HK, Nikkei) often take the first hit.
Repeat cycle: Last night he claims an agreement, market surges; an hour later the other side denies it, gains evaporate. Targeting newly entered, nervous retail investors.
3. Oil Prices & CPI: Is stagflation really coming?
Although Trump is trying to suppress expectations, the fundamental tug-of-war remains brutal. Right now, focus on the Strait of Hormuz dynamics:
Key warning: every 10% rise in oil prices pushes U.S. CPI up by roughly 0.2–0.3 points.
No matter when the war ends, as long as $Brent Last Day Financial - main 2606(BZmain)$ stays high, Fed rate cuts will be delayed. Low labor growth versus sticky wages — the shadow of “stagflation” is looming overhead.
Additionally, with April China visit rumors, if it happens, short-term sentiment swings could be huge. Follow the call rhythm closely. Beware of Trump “fake moves” — like the repeated Iran agreement flips, his good news often comes with a reverse blow, so take profits fast.
Since rate cuts are blocked, be cautious with bonds and equities.
💬 Discussion Questions:
How do you view Trump’s first-principle logic?
Will stagflation actually arrive?
Has the market finished falling, or is more downside still ahead?
Leave your comments to win tiger coins~
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Thanks to Trump & the Iran war, oil has skyrocketed over USD 100, tariffs are back, hiring is slowing & consumers are feeling the pinch. Trump's rhythm - unpredictable, loud & dramatic keeps markets on their toes.
How should investors invest if the stag decides to visit?
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@Tiger_comments @TigerStars
Stagflation is no longer a distant threat; it is our current reality. With Brent crude hovering stubbornly above $110, input costs are surging while global GDP growth forecasts are being slashed. This creates a toxic environment where central banks cannot easily cut rates to save the stock market without fueling inflation further. The data shows a clear divergence: while tech stocks attempt a "TACO" bounce, the underlying bond market is pricing in long-term inflationary pressure. We are firmly in a cycle where cash and hard assets outperform traditional growth-oriented portfolios.
Stagflation has materialized from theoretical risk. Energy price shocks, persistent inflation, and slowing activity create textbook conditions mirroring 1971-1973 and 1979-1981 oil crises 324. This environment favors defensive assets while punishing equities.
The S&P 500 (SPY at $653.18) faces technical support versus fundamental deterioration. Testing critical $655.32 support with 25% short volume, capital outflows (-$166.58M), and stagflation risks suggest technical bounces may be temporary. The market needs sustained recovery above $670 resistance amid persistent inflation and slowing growth.
On stagflation, I think it’s a risk, not the base case. If Brent crude oil stays high while growth slows, the Fed gets stuck — that’s the real concern. But demand destruction or policy moves could still cap oil, so I’m watching energy closely rather than positioning aggressively for stagflation.
As for the market, I don’t see a clean bottom yet — more of a headline-driven range. Rallies can be fast but fragile, so I’m trading tactically, taking profits quicker, and staying flexible.
@TigerStars @Tiger_comments @TigerClub
Repeat cycle: Last night he claims an agreement, market surges; an hour later the other side denies it, gains evaporate. Targeting newly entered, nervous retail investors.
100% bottom-fishing success rate: Trump tells you to buy, ignore the earnings report.
100% crude oil short success rate: Trump says oil is too high — even if the Middle East is on fire, the shorts have to retreat.
Middle East chaos: Even if the war worsens, if Trump says talks are coming, the market obeys.
Despite the recent 5-day pause in tensions, the market has not finished falling. A true bottom requires a "capitulation" event where the "TACO" believers finally give up. Currently, the Dow remains below its 200-day moving average, a classic sign of a primary bear trend. The current bounce looks like a technical "dead cat" rather than a fundamental reversal. There is likely another 10% to 15% downside ahead as earnings reports begin to reflect the reality of higher energy costs and cooling consumer demand.
Final Verdict: Strategic Patience
Sitting on cash is the most aggressive move one can make right now. It provides the optionality to strike when blood is truly in the streets. The "TACO" trade is a relic of a low-inflation era; in 2026, the stakes are higher, and the safety net is thinner. Waiting for a confirmed technical floor is the only way to protect capital from the volatility of headline-driven trading.
The core of this logic is that everything is a transaction. From tariffs to military posturing, the goal isn't conflict but a superior deal for U.S. interests. This "First Principle" assumes all actors are rational economic players. However, the risk in 2026 is that geopolitical rivals may prioritize ideology over economics. While the market bets on a pullback (the "TACO" move), the inherent danger is a miscalculation where a threat accidentally triggers a structural collapse in trade or security, rendering traditional "buy the dip" strategies obsolete.
Imagine that, TRILLIONS of dollars made! Someone was so sure they would make money because they had insider information.
TACO may be a joke for some, and a buying opportunity for others, but the money made is peanuts compared to the trades made by those with privileged knowledge before the various bombs (both literally and figuratively) dropped by the donald.