$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 's Chinese market share has collapsed from 95% to near zero over the last 2 years due to US export restrictions.
The big question is: will there be an AI export relaxation now?
I am not holding my breath on US transfering its top tier AI technology.
But I expect there maybe a compromise unblocking the H200 generation chips.
A win here would be allowing NVIDIA to export older tier chips in exchange for relaxation of rare earth exports to the US.
How will NVIDIA perform?
Bull Case: Even a minor breakthrough to allow shipping of custom compliant chips would allow NVIDIA to clear its inventory, sparking its share price to higher records.
If the summit concludes with nothing but vague platitudes NVIDIA may face short term correction.
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