To The Moon

In the latest week, U.S.-Iran talks remained deadlocked, while Trump began his state visit to China. U.S. President Trump arrived in Beijing on the evening of May 13, marking his first trip to China in nine years. He was accompanied by more than a dozen top U.S. business leaders, including tech figures such as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. The two heads of state held talks and set the tone by stating that “2026 should be a historic and landmark year that carries forward the past and opens a new chapter in China-U.S. relations.” This diplomatic progress was viewed by the market as a “new positioning” in China-U.S. relations, significantly boosting global risk appetite.

As of 2:00 p.m. on May 15, 2026, the weekly performance of key assets was as follows:

In an environment where macro expectations continue to swing back and forth, price movements alone are no longer sufficient to capture the main market narrative. By contrast, inventory changes better reflect real-world supply and demand, while capital flows more effectively reveal allocation preferences. Therefore, it is worth examining the latest developments across U.S. equities, U.S. Treasuries, crude oil, copper, aluminum, as well as gold and silver, through the two lenses of inventories and fund flows.

1. Equity fund outflows and bond fund inflows both widened

According to the latest data from the ICI:

ICI, or the Investment Company Institute, was established in 1940 and is one of the core associations in the U.S. fund industry. Its fund flow data are widely regarded in the market as an authoritative source for tracking subscription and redemption trends in U.S. mutual funds. In addition, ICI has long published statistics on regulated fund assets and flows in the U.S. and globally. Its methodology is stable and coverage is broad, which is why it is heavily cited by brokerages, research institutions, and financial media.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ $Micro E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(MESmain)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $E-mini Dow Jones - main 2606(YMmain)$ $Micro E-mini Dow Jones - main 2606(MYMmain)$ $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust(DIA)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(NQmain)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $10-YR T-NOTE - main 2606(ZNmain)$

Net outflows from equity funds widened further: For the week ended May 6, 2026, U.S. equity funds were expected to post net outflows of $32.62 billion, extending the several-week streak of outflows and indicating that the capital backdrop for equity mutual funds remains weak, with no clear recovery in risk appetite yet. On a marginal basis, the expected outflow for the week of May 6 widened from $24.096 billion in the week of April 29 to $32.62 billion, implying an additional $8.53 billion of outflow in a single week and suggesting that redemption pressure on equity funds continues to build.

Bond fund inflows strengthened: For the week ended May 6, 2026, U.S. bond funds were expected to record net inflows of $13.35 billion, remaining in positive territory and showing that bond mutual funds continue to attract incremental capital, with defensive and conservative allocation demand still present. On a marginal basis, the expected inflow of $13.35 billion for the week of May 6 was about $4.92 billion higher than the $8.429 billion recorded in the week of April 29, indicating that bond fund inflows were not only still positive but also strengthening relative to the prior week.

At the yield-curve level, the latest data as of May 13, 2026 showed the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at 4.46% and the 3-month Treasury yield at 3.69%. Looking at the rightmost portion of the chart, the 3-month short-end yield remained largely flat over the past week with no obvious fluctuation, while the 10-year long-end yield showed a clearer upward extension and a notable increase; as a result, the positive spread between the two has been widening.

2. Crude oil: Drawdown accelerated, commercial inventories fell below the five-year average

According to the latest Bloomberg data:

• U.S. commercial crude inventories: As of May 13, 2026, the latest data point showed U.S. commercial crude inventories at 452.876 million barrels. Judging from the chart, the inventory curve (orange line) turned lower in late April and that drawdown trend clearly continued into mid-May. From a historical percentile perspective, after easing further to around 453 million barrels, inventories have begun to move below the five-year average for 2021-2025 (white line) and are trending toward the lower-middle part of the five-year range.

  

  Cushing crude inventories: As of May 13, 2026, Cushing crude inventories stood at 27.422 million barrels. The chart shows that Cushing inventories had gone through a notable recovery earlier in 2026, but the rally stalled after April and turned into a gradual decline. Relative to history, the absolute inventory level remains below the 2021-2025 average (white line) and is generally positioned in the lower range of the past five years.

  

From a marginal perspective, both U.S. commercial crude inventories and Cushing inventories extended their prior declines in early May. The latest weekly data showed that U.S. commercial crude inventories fell by 4.306 million barrels from the previous week, while inventories at Cushing, the main delivery hub for U.S. crude, also dropped sharply by 1.702 million barrels. In other words, North American crude inventories showed a strong drawdown both in commercial storage and at the core delivery point in the latest week. In particular, U.S. commercial inventories falling below the five-year average indicate that the post-peak correction in crude inventories has been established, and the drawdown narrative is being strongly confirmed by hard data.

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2607(CLmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2606(QMmain)$ $United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$ $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2606(MCLmain)$

3. Copper: Shanghai drawdowns offset overseas builds, total inventories oscillate lower at high levels

As of May 8, 2026, global visible copper inventories totaled about 1.289 million, still in a relatively elevated range by recent standards. Broken down, CME copper inventories were about 0.621 million short tons, LME copper inventories about 0.544 million metric tons, and Shanghai copper inventories about 0.181 million metric tons. Among them, CME and LME inventories were both at clearly elevated levels compared with recent years, while Shanghai inventories continued their prior downward trend.

Looking at the marginal pattern on the right side of the charts, the latest week still showed a fairly clear divergence between domestic and overseas inventories: Shanghai copper inventories continued to fall, LME copper inventories were roughly flat versus the prior week with only a slight increase, and CME copper inventories posted a small additional rise. Supported by the strong domestic drawdown, global copper inventories were able to offset the overseas build and register a modest decline, with the latest reading down to around 1.289 million tons. In other words, the key features of the latest week were “continued Shanghai drawdown, slight high-level increase in LME and CME inventories, and a small pullback in total inventories.” The absolute inventory burden remains sizable, but recent volatility has been easing.

$ETFS COPPER(COPA.UK)$ $Copper - main 2607(HGmain)$

4. Aluminum: Domestic inventory accumulation drove the marginal change, lifting total stocks slightly

As of May 8, 2026, combined aluminum inventories across the three major exchanges stood at about 0.850 million, or 850,000 tons. By segment, COMEX aluminum inventory was about 1,218 tons, LME aluminum inventory about 0.356 million tons, and Shanghai aluminum inventory about 0.493 million tons. Shanghai aluminum inventories remained near a two-year high, LME aluminum inventories continued to decline and stayed relatively low, while COMEX aluminum inventories remained in an extremely low range.

Looking at the marginal pattern on the far right of the chart, the latest week showed a clear divergence between domestic and overseas inventories: Shanghai aluminum inventories continued to rise, LME aluminum inventories kept falling, and COMEX aluminum inventories remained unchanged from the prior week. Supported by domestic inventory accumulation, total aluminum inventories across the three exchanges increased slightly after offsetting the impact of overseas destocking, with the latest reading rising to around 850,000 tons. In other words, the core features of the latest week were “continued Shanghai accumulation, ongoing LME destocking, flat COMEX stocks at a low level, and a slight increase in total inventories.” Structural divergence in aluminum inventories remains obvious, and although overseas supply remains relatively tight, higher domestic stocks have pushed the overall inventory center slightly higher again.

$ALUMINUM FUTURES - main 2607(ALImain)$ $ETFS ALUMINIUM(ALUM.UK)$

5. Gold and silver: Gold inventories remain tight, silver inventories have stabilized

According to the latest Wind data:

• Inventory side (physical fundamentals): As of May 13, 2026, COMEX gold inventories stood at 29.0175 million troy ounces, while COMEX silver inventories stood at 313 million troy ounces. Historically, both series have shown extremely steep long-term declines. In particular, since the second half of 2025 and into 2026, the pace of inventory depletion has accelerated materially. At present, absolute inventory levels for both metals are in the lowest historical range seen in recent years.

COMEX gold inventory

COMEX silver inventory

• Flow side (positioning): As of the latest data on May 5, non-commercial long positions in COMEX gold stood at 211,800 contracts and short positions at 48,500 contracts. For COMEX silver, non-commercial long positions stood at 33,000 contracts and short positions at 9,073 contracts.

COMEX gold positioning data

COMEX silver positioning data

From a marginal perspective, the latest charts show the following at the far right edge:

On the inventory side, COMEX gold inventories continued to come under pressure and declined further, while COMEX silver inventories stabilized after bottoming out and were roughly flat in the latest week. Even so, the physical backdrop for both metals remains extremely tight.

On the flow side, gold showed a pattern of “longs unchanged, shorts declining.” This means bullish funds did not materially add to positions, but short positions were covered, so net speculative longs expanded mechanically, easing the pressure on gold prices relative to the prior week. For silver, both non-commercial long positions (blue line) and short positions (yellow line) moved lower at the latest end of the chart. This “double decline” in longs and shorts suggests falling speculative activity in the silver market, with both sides reducing exposure and waiting on the sidelines. In the near term, price action is likely to remain range-bound and low in volatility.

$Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - main 2606(MGCmain)$ $1-Ounce Gold - main 2606(1OZmain)$ $E-mini Gold - main 2606(QOmain)$ $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ $Silver - main 2607(SImain)$ $E-mini Silver - main 2607(QImain)$ $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$

6. Conclusion: Follow the flows, understand the inventory base

In the latest week, global assets remained framed by a changing macro backdrop. On the inventory side, crude oil continued to draw down and fell below the five-year average, copper and aluminum continued to show domestic-versus-overseas divergence, and gold and silver inventories remained at historically low levels. On the flow side, equity fund outflows widened, bond fund inflows strengthened, gold shorts softened at the margin, and silver showed a wait-and-see pattern with both longs and shorts declining. Overall, the market has not yet formed a single dominant narrative and is still in a phase of ongoing tug-of-war between shifting risk appetite, recurring geopolitical developments, and supply-demand divergence.