To The Moon

So, the question posed here was what is the market betting on going forward. Lower unemployment? Another rate hike? I'm at the point where I'm really not bothered. Last week the market was back on the AI bubble thing again, this week costs of micron chips are going up 500%, and $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  is to double its production... so it's not a bubble, but probably the waffle of Wall Street will contradict itself again several more times this month. I'm over it!  I'm from a tiny country at the bottom of the world called New Zealand, so I have to hold a world view, compared to an "American" world view. Case and point, the World Series that Americans hold in their country that only includes America. Not trying to be obtrusive here, I was mar

A. Treasury yields keep falling. The post-Fed rally looks encouraging, especially with semiconductors leading, but I think yields are the key confirmation signal. If the 10-year can move sustainably below 5%, valuation pressure on growth and tech stocks should ease and give the rally more room. For now, I see this more as a rebound that still needs confirmation rather than the start of a clear new rally. Oil and the Fed remain important because either could push yields higher again.

C. everything else is news used to justify stock market movement

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Still bullish overall. JH and MZ continues to push the AI and chip narrative.

Expected should be ok. Actually I like interest rate high a bit

C. 💻 Tech and semiconductors stay strong Brent fell 2.7% to $105.83 after Saudi Arabia began moving more crude through Oman, partially relieving the immediate supply squeeze. Hormuz traffic, however, remains extremely depressed. The post-Fed market is stabilising: global equities rebounded as Treasury yields retreated and Brent eased to $104.82, although both borrowing costs and energy remain restrictive. The important investment message is that the macro shock has eased slightly,e no hard evidence of AI infrastructure demand rolling over. $Broadcom(AVGO)$ just reported perhaps the strongest confirmation: Q3 AI semiconductor revenue was +221% YoY and +54% QoQ, with Q4 AI semiconductor revenue guided to +236% YoY. Q3 FCF was $13.7B, or 46% of r

For my view: C. Tech & semiconductors stay strong I see this as more likely a short-term rebound first, not yet proof of a new strong rally. Why? 10-year yield below 5% → helps growth stocks. Oil falling → reduces inflation pressure. AI/chips strong → brings investors back to NVDA, AMD, MU, INTC. But the Fed is still hawkish, with rates at 3.75%–4.00%. If the 10-year yield goes back above 5%, tech stocks could face pressure again. What I would watch: Yield ↓ + Oil ↓ + AI earnings ↑ = rally has a better chance to continue. If only tech rebounds for a few days while yields rise again, it may be just a relief rally. Bottom line:  I would not chase aggressively yet. Watch Treasury yields and AI/chip strength first.

A. 📉 Treasury yields keep falling I’d pick A — but the deeper story is not that the Fed suddenly turned dovish. The Fed just raised rates to 3.75%–4.00%, while signaling inflation remains elevated. Thursday’s rally was more about financial conditions. When the 10-year yield slipped back below 5%, the discount-rate pressure on long-duration tech stocks eased. Falling oil added another layer of relief by reducing inflation concerns. That explains why semiconductors led the rebound: when yields fall, high-growth companies with strong earnings expectations can re-rate quickly. The real test now is whether the 10-year can stay below 5%. If yields rise again, Thursday’s relief rally could quickly face another valuation squeeze. My vote: A — yields are the key variable to watch.

A. 📉 Treasury yields keep falling. For me, the bond market is the key signal. If yields continue to ease, that could support valuations and give growth stocks more room to run—even with the Fed still sounding relatively hawkish.

I’d pick A — falling Treasury yields. If yields keep easing, that could give growth and tech stocks more breathing room even with the Fed staying cautious.

Wall Street staged a sharp rebound on September 17, just one day after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained 1.14% to 7,637.76, while the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite jumped 1.69% to 26,418.30, giving both indexes their strongest session in roughly six weeks. The $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ rose 0.61% to 51,778.04, while the Russell 2000 added about 0.6%. The rebound came despite the Fed raising its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% and signaling that more tightening could follow. Instead, investors found relief in two developments: T

Interesting disconnect: Arc gets major institutional names involved, yet the stock still sells off. That suggests the market may be demanding more than partnerships — actual adoption, transaction growth and earnings diversification could be the next proof points.

I’m watching C — higher for longer. Even if we don’t see another hike soon, rates staying elevated can still put pressure on valuations and keep volatility high. For me, the key is whether inflation cools enough to give the Fed room to ease without reigniting price pressures.

🔥 FED HIKED. STOCKS DIDN’T CARE. That’s what caught my attention Thursday. The Fed just raised rates 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%, with policymakers still signalling another hike could come this year. Yet stocks ripped higher: 🚀 Nasdaq +1.69% 📈 S&P 500 +1.14% 📉 10Y Treasury yield back to ~4.93% 🛢️ Brent crude ~1% lower And jobless claims came in at just 196K, pointing to continued labour-market resilience.  So what is the market actually saying? Maybe the trade isn’t “Fed is dovish.” Maybe it’s: “As long as oil and long-term yields keep coming down, investors can look through the hike.” But here’s the catch 👀 Markets were still pricing about a 53% chance of another October hike on Thursday.  Is this the start of a bigger risk-on move, or are investors getting too comfortable with the Fed’s ha

The Fed just raised rates. And the market basically said: “Okay… now what?” 👀 Thursday delivered a powerful rebound: 📈 Nasdaq-100 +1.73% 📈 S&P 500 +1.14% 📈 SPY +1.13% 📈 QQQ +1.73% The S&P 500 recovered Wednesday’s Fed-day decline and closed at 7,637.76, while the Nasdaq jumped 1.69%.  But the interesting part wasn’t the Fed. 🛢️ OIL FELL Brent dropped to around $104.82, easing some of the inflation pressure that had been pushing yields higher.  📉 YIELDS FELL The 10-year Treasury yield dropped back below 5%, ending around 4.93% after briefly crossing 5% following Wednesday’s decision.  👷 JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL Initial claims dropped to 196,000, below expectations of roughly 207,000. That creates an interesting combination: Stronger labour data + lower oil + lower yields = a much easi

I’m voting C. Whether the Fed hikes once more matters less to me than how long rates stay elevated. If “higher for longer” becomes firmly priced in, I’d watch Treasuries most closely. Long yields near 5% affect almost everything else: equity valuations, borrowing costs, the dollar and even gold’s opportunity cost. Stocks can still rally if earnings and AI growth remain strong, as we saw after the September hike. But persistently high long-term yields would keep pressure on expensive growth stocks. So for me: watch the bond market first, then see how equities react.

I think the Senate setback is still the main overhang, but not the whole story. Arc launching with BlackRock, Visa, Mastercard and DTCC is meaningful for Circle’s long-term infrastructure story, while higher rates can support its huge reserve-income business. Yet neither immediately solves what the market wants: regulatory clarity and diversification away from interest income. The interesting part is that the GENIUS Act framework for stablecoins still exists, so Tuesday did not break Circle’s core business. CRCL may simply be getting repriced for regulatory uncertainty plus its heavy dependence on reserve income. I’m watching whether Arc can turn those big institutional names into actual usage and revenue.

I think the market is betting that the Fed can tighten without breaking the economy. Jobless claims remain strong, while falling oil and Treasury yields are easing inflation and valuation pressure. Tech benefits most if long yields stay contained. The risk is that this becomes a “good news is bad news” trade again. A resilient labour market gives the Fed room to hike further, and the dot plot still points to another hike this year. For now, investors seem more comfortable with higher rates as long as growth holds and oil keeps cooling.

The Bank of Japan has raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years. The move passed by a 7-2 vote and was broadly expected by markets. The bigger question now is not the 1.25% level itself, but how far the BOJ is prepared to go from here. This matters far beyond Japan. For years, the yen has been one of the world’s cheapest funding currencies. Investors could borrow at very low Japanese rates and move that capital into higher-yielding assets elsewhere — U.S. stocks, bonds, emerging-market currencies and other risk assets. That is the basic logic behind the yen carry trade. As Japanese rates rise, that trade becomes less attractive. If the yen also strengthens, investors face both higher funding costs and FX losses. That is why every BOJ tightening cycle

So, the question posed here was what is the market betting on going forward. Lower unemployment? Another rate hike? I'm at the point where I'm really not bothered. Last week the market was back on the AI bubble thing again, this week costs of micron chips are going up 500%, and $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  is to double its production... so it's not a bubble, but probably the waffle of Wall Street will contradict itself again several more times this month. I'm over it!  I'm from a tiny country at the bottom of the world called New Zealand, so I have to hold a world view, compared to an "American" world view. Case and point, the World Series that Americans hold in their country that only includes America. Not trying to be obtrusive here, I was mar

Wall Street staged a sharp rebound on September 17, just one day after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained 1.14% to 7,637.76, while the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite jumped 1.69% to 26,418.30, giving both indexes their strongest session in roughly six weeks. The $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ rose 0.61% to 51,778.04, while the Russell 2000 added about 0.6%. The rebound came despite the Fed raising its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% and signaling that more tightening could follow. Instead, investors found relief in two developments: T

A. Treasury yields keep falling. The post-Fed rally looks encouraging, especially with semiconductors leading, but I think yields are the key confirmation signal. If the 10-year can move sustainably below 5%, valuation pressure on growth and tech stocks should ease and give the rally more room. For now, I see this more as a rebound that still needs confirmation rather than the start of a clear new rally. Oil and the Fed remain important because either could push yields higher again.

C. everything else is news used to justify stock market movement

Tiger Brokers just sent me a gold brick for 2026. My investment thesis is paying off in more ways than one 😏🥇 #TigerBrokers

The Bank of Japan has raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years. The move passed by a 7-2 vote and was broadly expected by markets. The bigger question now is not the 1.25% level itself, but how far the BOJ is prepared to go from here. This matters far beyond Japan. For years, the yen has been one of the world’s cheapest funding currencies. Investors could borrow at very low Japanese rates and move that capital into higher-yielding assets elsewhere — U.S. stocks, bonds, emerging-market currencies and other risk assets. That is the basic logic behind the yen carry trade. As Japanese rates rise, that trade becomes less attractive. If the yen also strengthens, investors face both higher funding costs and FX losses. That is why every BOJ tightening cycle

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points on September 16, lifting the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%. The move was unanimous and broadly expected, but the rate hike itself was not what unsettled markets most. The bigger signal came from the Fed’s updated dot plot, firmer inflation projections and Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish message that inflation remains the central policy concern. Taken together, the September meeting suggested that this was not necessarily a one-off hike. Most policymakers still see further tightening as appropriate, while stronger growth and a resilient labor market give the Fed more room to keep rates restrictive. 1. Dot Plot Turns Hawkish: 16 Officials See Another Hike The strongest signal from the meeting came from the Fed’s updated dot

C. 💻 Tech and semiconductors stay strong Brent fell 2.7% to $105.83 after Saudi Arabia began moving more crude through Oman, partially relieving the immediate supply squeeze. Hormuz traffic, however, remains extremely depressed. The post-Fed market is stabilising: global equities rebounded as Treasury yields retreated and Brent eased to $104.82, although both borrowing costs and energy remain restrictive. The important investment message is that the macro shock has eased slightly,e no hard evidence of AI infrastructure demand rolling over. $Broadcom(AVGO)$ just reported perhaps the strongest confirmation: Q3 AI semiconductor revenue was +221% YoY and +54% QoQ, with Q4 AI semiconductor revenue guided to +236% YoY. Q3 FCF was $13.7B, or 46% of r

After rallying in August, gold has pulled back to the midpoint of that advance, with neither bulls nor bears gaining a clear upper hand. Technically, prices remain confined to the prior consolidation range, leaving room for either a breakout or a breakdown in the near term. The question is not whether gold must rise or fall, but whether post-FOMC macro moves can force a break from the range. $黃金主連 2612(GCmain)$ $微黃金主連 2612(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黃金主連 2612(1OZmain)$ $黃金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$ FOMC Surprise Drives Near-Term Pricing, With Real Yields and the Do

The three indices closed Wednesday along two different paths. The $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ fell 1.21 per cent to 51,461.90, losing 631.21 points on the day; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed 0.45 per cent lower at 7,551.81, a third consecutive fall; and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite barely moved, closing 0.01 per cent lower at 25,978.42. The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points that afternoon. All three had been higher before it did, and the turn began with the decision and the press conference. The target range for the federal funds rate went up to 3.75-4 per cent, from 3.5 per cent to 3.75 per cent before, with

Speaker: James Early, CEO of Curia FinancialSession: Debt, Doom, and Dispersion — Fall 2026 Investing Outlook Live Date: September 11, 2026 (Review Live >>) 💬 Companion Post: Golden Sentences from James Early’s Live — Debt, Dollar & the “Capybara” Strategy James Early opened his portion of the livestream by stepping away from the daily market noise and asking a much bigger question: Why has the U.S. stock market continued to rise over the long run, even as federal debt has expanded toward $40 trillion? His answer was not that debt is irrelevant. Inst

For my view: C. Tech & semiconductors stay strong I see this as more likely a short-term rebound first, not yet proof of a new strong rally. Why? 10-year yield below 5% → helps growth stocks. Oil falling → reduces inflation pressure. AI/chips strong → brings investors back to NVDA, AMD, MU, INTC. But the Fed is still hawkish, with rates at 3.75%–4.00%. If the 10-year yield goes back above 5%, tech stocks could face pressure again. What I would watch: Yield ↓ + Oil ↓ + AI earnings ↑ = rally has a better chance to continue. If only tech rebounds for a few days while yields rise again, it may be just a relief rally. Bottom line:  I would not chase aggressively yet. Watch Treasury yields and AI/chip strength first.

A. 📉 Treasury yields keep falling I’d pick A — but the deeper story is not that the Fed suddenly turned dovish. The Fed just raised rates to 3.75%–4.00%, while signaling inflation remains elevated. Thursday’s rally was more about financial conditions. When the 10-year yield slipped back below 5%, the discount-rate pressure on long-duration tech stocks eased. Falling oil added another layer of relief by reducing inflation concerns. That explains why semiconductors led the rebound: when yields fall, high-growth companies with strong earnings expectations can re-rate quickly. The real test now is whether the 10-year can stay below 5%. If yields rise again, Thursday’s relief rally could quickly face another valuation squeeze. My vote: A — yields are the key variable to watch.

Still bullish overall. JH and MZ continues to push the AI and chip narrative.

Speaker: @Selina_Han_Insights, Founder of Han Insights; former Cboe EconomistSession: Debt, Doom, and Dispersion — Fall 2026 Investing Outlook Live Date: September 11, 2026 (Review Live >>) 💬 Companion Post: Golden Sentences from Selina Han’s Live — Dollar, Fed & Dispersion Selina Han’s part of the livestream focused less on whether U.S. debt is simply “good” or “bad” and more on how macro pressure actually travels through markets. She explained the mechanism connecting fiscal def

Weekly Roundup 1. The Real Focus of the FOMC Isn't the Rate Move. It's the Treasury Yield Curve. Markets have largely priced in a 25-basis-point hike, so whether asset prices reprice sharply in the near term will hinge on how the Fed frames its future rate path and inflation outlook. The 10-year Treasury yield is closing in on 5%, and a decisive break above that level would weigh on both stocks and gold through three channels: valuation discounting, funding costs and risk appetite. What markets are really waiting on is whether long-term yields have peaked. 2. Beneath a Calm Surface, US Stocks Show Signs of Technical Fatigue. Market breadth is fading fast: only about 28% of NYSE-listed stocks are trading above their 20-day moving average, and the equal-weight S&P 500 has slipped be

Key Scenario: The Fed’s Decision Will Determine Gold’s Fate The crux of the matter regarding the decision does not lie in whether or not interest rates will be raised, but rather in the updated economic forecast dot plot and the Fed Chair’s remarks on the future interest rate path during the press conference. A: Dovish reassurance (e.g., implying that current inflation is under control and the tightening cycle is nearing its end) Market Outlook: This would immediately trigger a “gold bull run” as bearish expectations are realized. Technical Development: 4-hour bulls will ignore resistance from moving averages above, breaking through the middle Bollinger Band at $4,436.41 with a large bullish candle, rapidly recouping lost ground in a short time, and making a frantic push toward the 4-hour

Expected should be ok. Actually I like interest rate high a bit

A. 📉 Treasury yields keep falling. For me, the bond market is the key signal. If yields continue to ease, that could support valuations and give growth stocks more room to run—even with the Fed still sounding relatively hawkish.

I’d pick A — falling Treasury yields. If yields keep easing, that could give growth and tech stocks more breathing room even with the Fed staying cautious.