Rate Cuts Turn Into Rate Hikes? Can NVIDIA Still Save Market?
A macro narrative centered around rate cuts suddenly flipping into rate hikes is not a small shift.
Hike odds were 18% last week, 36% yesterday, and now effectively 100%. The $US30Y(US30Y.BOND)$ just hit 5.2%, the highest level in 20 years. $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ are down 4% over the past week, while silver has dropped 14% from recent highs.
And tonight: $NVDA earnings. Can NVIDIA still save this market?
Yardeni Calls for a July Rate Hike
CME FedWatch is now pricing roughly a 42% chance of a hike this year.
The real story: the bond vigilantes are now driving policy expectations.
“Walsh is an outsider. The bond market is the real policymaker.”
His projected path:
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June FOMC removes forward guidance for cuts (a stealth tightening)
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July delivers a direct 25bp hike
The logic: Walsh may try to use hawkishness to force long-end yields lower — hiking rates in order to eventually create room for cuts later. That’s the real game.
Gold Already Broke. Tech Hasn’t Yet.
The most rate-sensitive assets moved first. That’s real repricing happening in real time.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq has only pulled back about 2% from highs. Semis are trying to fight macro gravity through extreme concentration:
“No matter how bad macro gets, if we all pile into AI together, maybe we can hold the line.”
NVIDIA Earnings: 4 Down, 1 Up
Goldman and Evercore Still Bullish
Goldman just raised estimates again: CY26/27 EPS forecasts are now 14% / 34% above consensus. NTM P/E still trades roughly 10 turns below the 3-year median of 32x. Agentic AI CPU-only racks beginning shipment in 2H26 are barely priced in.
Fundamentally, the logic still works.
But in an environment where 30Y Treasury yields are at 20-year highs. Rate hike odds are exploding.
…how good does NVIDIA’s earnings report need to be to actually pull mega-cap tech out of the macro swamp?
If results massively beat: bulls may simply take profits; “Good news fully priced in”
If results are only “good,” or merely “less great than expected,” macro gravity starts taking over again.
At this point, arguing over incremental fundamentals may matter less than the rates backdrop itself.
Tonight’s question:
Can $NVDA deliver another “beat and rise” moment like May last year?
With hike probabilities surging, are you still holding — or already trimming exposure?
Do you think the Fed actually hikes in July, or does the market break first and force the Fed to pivot before then?
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Even so, I remain bullish going into $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ earnings tonight. I still see NVIDIA benefiting from a strong AI infrastructure cycle, with demand, backlog, and data center spend likely outweighing short-term macro pressure. The structural growth story hasn’t broken even if rates are moving against risk sentiment.
That said, I’m aware of the “good news gets sold” risk in this environment. But I still lean toward a beat-and-support outcome rather than a breakdown, as long as guidance confirms AI demand remains strong. Overall, I’m staying bullish, but watching closely whether earnings can overpower the macro noise.
@TigerStars @Tiger_comments @Tiger_SG @TigerClub
The impact of this share buyback would result in reduction of total share count. It means that fewer shares drive the underlying intrinsic value of NVIDIA share price.
On top of that, NVIDIA has increased its quarterly cash dividend from a USD 0.01 per share to USD 0.25 per share.
The calendar says it is May but the ledger says it is Christmas for Nvidia's shareholders.
Kudos to Jensen Huang for he has shown that when NVIDIA holds an ironclad monopoly over a USD 1 Trillion Blackwell & next generation Rubin chips, a centuries old British saying like "Sell in May" doesn't stand a ghost of a chance.
@Tiger_SG @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @WallStreet_Tiger
This is a staggering historical "triple beat" that well exceeded Wall Street's highest expectations.
Revenue up 85% YoY to hit a record breaking USD 81.62 billion.
Adjusted EPS surged an astonishing 140% to land at USD 1.87.
NVIDIA maintained a flawless highly profitable non GAAP gross margin of 75%.
Data centre segment revenue surged 92% YoY to a record shattering USD 75.2 billion, proving that hyperscalers are relentlessly expanding their cloud hardware Capex.
My high conviction decision to Add ahead of this report has been validated by this astounding sterling performance by NVIDIA.
A Big Thank You to Jensen Huang for guiding NVIDIA to new heights of success. Congratulations to all investors who believed in NVIDIA.
@Tiger_SG @Tiger_comments @TigerStars
2. With rising inflation due to increasing oil prices the forecast for interest rates is further growth in rates. With these developments in a raising interest rate environment, it is necessary to reduce interest rate exposure
3. The fed is likely to raise interest rates however the impact on markets is uncertain which depends on market conditions and the economy. The fed is likely to raise interest rates