To The Moon

Tonight, history prints.

SPCX begins trading on the Nasdaq at a fixed price of $135 per share, raising $75 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation. That makes it the largest IPO ever, more than double Saudi Aramco's 2019 record. SpaceX debuts as roughly the seventh-largest US company, bigger than Tesla on day one.

The demand numbers are absurd. Over $250 billion in subscriptions locked up. Retail alone contributed $70 billion. Allocation rates expected at just 20 to 30%. Over 1,000 institutions fought for shares. Polymarket estimates the IPO creates roughly 4,000 new millionaires inside the company.

Oppenheimer says $190. Morningstar says $63. The gap between those two numbers is the entire story. Let's break it down properly.

What You Are Actually Buying

This is no longer a rocket company. The S-1 reveals three businesses with wildly different economics stapled together.

Starlink is the crown jewel. $11.4 billion in 2025 revenue with a 63% EBITDA margin and $4.4 billion in operating profit. Subscribers more than doubled from 4.5 million at the start of 2025 to 10.3 million by early 2026. It generates 69% of total revenue and is the only profitable segment in the entire company. This is a global telecom operator with software margins, growing at a pace no terrestrial carrier can touch.

The rocket business burns cash. Q1 launch revenue of just $620 million against an operating loss of $660 million. Over $15 billion has gone into Starship development, far beyond original budgets, with profitability nowhere in sight. The launch business is the moat and the marketing, not the money.

xAI is the wildcard. Acquired via merger in February, it lost $6.4 billion in 2025 and is spending even faster in 2026. But here is what changed the calculus: Anthropic is paying $1.25 billion per month to rent the entire Colossus 1 data centre through May 2029, and Google just signed at $920 million per month for 32 months covering roughly 110,000 GPUs. Combined annualised compute revenue: roughly $26 billion. The loss-making AI lab quietly became one of the largest AI infrastructure landlords on Earth.

The consolidated picture: a Q1 2026 net loss of $4.27 billion and an accumulated deficit of $41.3 billion. You are buying one spectacular business, one cash furnace with a moat, and one AI bet with two anchor tenants.

The Valuation Problem, Honestly

At $1.77 trillion against roughly $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue, SPCX trades at 94x sales. If it pops to $2 trillion, that becomes 107x.

For context at their own IPOs: Saudi Aramco listed at 5x sales. Google at 10x. Apple at 10x. Meta, considered wildly expensive at the time, at 28x. Nvidia at peak AI frenzy traded around 40x. SPCX is launching at more than double the most expensive large-cap multiple in market history.

To justify this price, long-term models require revenue to grow from $18.7 billion today to over $1 trillion by 2035. That is close to 50% compound annual growth for an entire decade. Amazon, the greatest compounder of the modern era, never sustained that for ten straight years from a base this large.

Morningstar's $63 fair value, roughly $780 billion in market cap, is not a troll. It is what you get when you value Starlink generously, the launch business modestly, and refuse to pay for xAI's promises. Their argument: Grok has not captured meaningful share against competing chatbots, and the AI unit poses a genuine risk of value destruction.

The bulls' counter is that the parts are mispriced individually. Starlink alone, growing subscribers at this rate with 63% margins, supports several hundred billion. The xAI compute contracts from Anthropic and Google de-risk the AI bet with $26 billion of locked annualised revenue. Starship, if reusability delivers, cuts launch costs by an order of magnitude and opens markets that do not exist yet. ARK sees a path to $2.5 trillion or more by 2030.

Both cases are internally coherent. The difference is how much execution you are willing to prepay for.

The Mechanics That Will Drive the First Weeks

Forget fundamentals for a moment. The early price action will be dominated by structure.

The float is tiny. Only about 4% of the company is actually trading. With $250 billion in subscriptions chasing a $75 billion deal, unfilled demand spills directly into the open market on day one.

Index inclusion is unusually fast. MSCI made SPCX eligible for early inclusion starting June 13, one day after listing. Nasdaq-100 and FTSE Russell are expected to move quickly, and even the S&P 500 appears open to accelerating its timeline. That is billions in mechanical passive buying with no regard for valuation.

The retail allocation is triple the norm. SpaceX reserved roughly 30% of the deal for retail investors versus the usual 5 to 10%. Heavy retail participation widens opening-day swings in both directions.

But the overhangs are real. Lockup expirations release shares in waves over the coming months, giving early investors and employees their first liquidity in 24 years. Musk retains 82% voting control through the dual-class structure, meaning public shareholders have zero say over how much xAI burns. And the first public earnings report in November 2026 is the moment the growth narrative meets an actual income statement.

The realistic trading ranges being discussed: week one between $140 and $175, with a pop above $180 possible given the retail frenzy. Month one between $130 and $165 as IPO flippers take profits against MSCI buyers providing a floor. Three months out, anywhere from $120 to $200 depending on what the Starlink subscriber number and xAI capex trends look like by the November report.

Bull Case vs Bear Case

The Bull Case

You are not buying a rocket company. You are buying early Amazon's growth optionality, Tesla's manufacturing scale, Nvidia-adjacent AI infrastructure exposure, and a global telecom's recurring cash flows in a single ticker. Starlink's subscriber curve is one of the steepest in business history. The Anthropic and Google compute deals turned xAI from a science project into a landlord with $26 billion of annualised contracted revenue. Index inclusion creates structural demand for months. Oppenheimer's $190 target implies 41% upside from the IPO price.

The Bear Case

At 94x sales, the market is prepaying for a decade of near-perfect execution before any of it has been delivered. The company lost $4.27 billion last quarter, and losses are accelerating, not shrinking. Starlink ARPU is falling from $99 toward $66 as growth shifts to lower-priced international markets. Giant IPOs historically lag the market in their first year. Lockup waves are coming. And with 82% voting control, you own the exposure but Musk controls the risk. Morningstar's $63 fair value implies 53% downside.

The Trade Framework

For those who got an allocation at $135: congratulations, the structural setup, tiny float, index buying, retail frenzy, strongly favours a positive debut. The historical mega-IPO playbook says take at least partial profits into the first-week strength, because the month-two mean reversion is one of the most reliable patterns in IPO history.

For those buying on the open market today: understand you are paying the frenzy premium. The disciplined play is to let the first wave of price discovery happen. The window between the week-four profit-taking and the November earnings report has historically been the better entry for mega-IPOs, often 15 to 25% below the day-one highs.

For long-term believers: the real test is November 2026. The first public earnings call will anchor the valuation to actual numbers for the first time. Two metrics decide everything: whether Starlink crosses 11 million subscribers, and whether xAI capex shows any sign of peaking. Strong on both and the bull thesis compounds. Weak on either and the 94x multiple becomes very heavy, very fast.

This is genuinely the most fascinating listing of the decade. It is either the next Amazon, bought at the moment everyone called it too expensive, or the most expensive leap of faith Wall Street has ever taken.

Probably the honest answer is that it is both at once, and the next ten quarters decide which one wins.

I am not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades.