Here is how much I think $TSLA will earn over the full year 2027 by each part of their portfolio: 👇
1. Auto sales: $110 billion with sales north of 2 million vehicles.
2. Megapack and autobidder: $35 billion or higher due to increased demand, production and scale.
3. Robotaxi: $10 billion depending on regulatory approval and Tesla rollout timeline.
4. FSD subscriptions: $6 billion with potentially 2-3 million or more with 30-40% adoption rates as technology scales and launches in additional markets.
5. Semi truck: $3.5 to $7 billion on the low end as production scales in Nevada.
6. Supercharging and services: $22 billion Includes Supercharging network revenue, vehicle insurance, used vehicle sales, parts, and maintenance.
7. Robotics: $1.5 billion as Tesla continues to scale out of Fremont and new factory in Texas.
Total is $188 to $192 billion in revenue.
On a 30% gross margins and 6-9% GAAP net margins.
I could be very wrong especially if the company scales faster than expected on each category or something unforeseen occurs.
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- XianLi·06-25Robotaxi at 10B feels like the swing factor lol. Auto plus Megapack I can buy, but 30% gross margin by 2027 is spicyLikeReport