To The Moon

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 06Jul2026)

Services Sector Indicators

S&P Global Services PMI: The June forecast is 51.3, suggesting continued growth compared with the previous reading.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices: The June release is expected in the coming week. The previous reading of 71.3 pointed to elevated inflationary pressures across the non-manufacturing sector, with higher costs likely filtering through to consumers.

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: The June forecast is 54.2, indicating expansion in the non-manufacturing sector.

Energy Market Signals

Crude oil inventories previously recorded a drawdown of more than 3.7 million barrels, suggesting producers may be responding to stronger expected consumer demand. This is a bullish indicator, and the upcoming release should help clarify the outlook for oil producers, market consumption, and demand conditions.

Rates and Market Sentiment

10-Year Note and 30-Year Bond Auctions: These upcoming auctions are important references for market sentiment. Higher prices for notes or bonds would imply stronger demand, which may indicate fund rotation away from other asset classes, including equities.

FOMC Meeting Minutes: The minutes will be released in the coming week and should provide useful context for how the market anticipates future interest rate decisions.

Housing Market Indicator

Existing home sales are forecast at 4.2 million units, making this release a useful reference point for assessing the health of the real estate market.

Earnings Calendar (06Jul2026)

I am interested in the earnings announcements of Levi’s, Kura and Delta Airlines.

Let us look at Delta Airlines.

Why are Delta Airlines’ earnings important?

Delta Air Lines serves as a strong bellwether for the U.S. airline industry and broader economy due to its scale, consistent profitability, and detailed reporting. Its quarterly earnings offer key insights through metrics like revenue growth, TRASM (Total Revenue per Available Seat Mile), premium versus main cabin performance, corporate and leisure demand breakdowns, capacity trends, and operating margins.

• For the industry, strong TRASM and premium revenue growth signal healthy demand and pricing power, while capacity discipline and margin trends indicate supply conditions and cost efficiency. Delta’s results often influence peer stocks such as United and American.

• On the wider market, robust travel bookings reflect consumer confidence and business activity, with premium growth highlighting resilient high-end spending. Fuel cost commentary provides energy market signals, and overall profitability acts as a proxy for economic resilience.

• Note that Delta’s brand advantages may lead to relative outperformance. The Q2 2026 earnings, scheduled for July 10, will deliver the latest updates.

The stock price has risen by over 82.36% compared with a year ago. From a technical analysis perspective, there is a “strong buy” recommendation, which is consistent with analyst sentiment. However, the price target of $92.09 suggests a potential downside of 0.71%.

With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.5 and earnings per share of $6.89, this may seem like an attractive offer. Delta Air Lines currently trades at a trailing P/E ratio of about 13.5 (early July 2026). This is below the broader U.S. airline industry average of 18.9x. Among major peers, Delta’s valuation sits higher than United Airlines (~11.8–12.2) but lower than Southwest (~32) and American Airlines’ (~57). It is also well below Delta’s own 10-year historical average (~20x) and the wider Industrials sector average.

Financial Performance (2021–2025)

Revenue growth: Total annual revenue increased from $29.8 billion in 2021 to $63.3 billion in 2025.

Margin improvement: Gross profit margin rose from 7.23% to 20.45% over the same period.

Operating income: Operating income improved from a $2.1 billion loss in 2021 to $5.6 billion in 2025. The strongest year was 2024, when operating income reached $5.8 billion.

Net income: Net income increased from $0.28 billion in 2021 to $5.0 billion in 2025.

Balance Sheet Strength

Total assets: Assets increased from $72.4 billion in 2021 to $81.3 billion in 2025.

Total liabilities: Liabilities declined from $68.5 billion to $60.4 billion over the same period.

Total debt: Debt fell from $34.6 billion to $20.2 billion, indicating a meaningful improvement in the company’s financial position.

Cash Flow and Debt Reduction

Cash from operations improved from $3.2 billion in 2021 to $8.3 billion in 2025. This stronger cash generation appears to have supported management’s efforts to reduce debt, as reflected in consistently negative cash flow from financing activities over the past five years.

The revenue and EPS forecast are $17.47 billion and $1.53, respectively.

Given the above, Delta Airlines may be an interesting consideration for our portfolio. Let us do our due diligence.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (06Jul2026)

Technical Analysis Overview

MACD Indicator

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is on a downtrend, and a reversal can be in the works.

Chaikin Money Flow

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at -0.04, indicating the market has more selling momentum than buying.

Moving Averages

Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has been above the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have begun to trend upwards, which indicates a bullish outlook in both the short and long term.

Exponential Moving Averages

The exponential moving average (EMA) lines are showing a bullish outlook.

Other Technical Analysis

Based on the daily interval, technical analysis recommends a “Strong Buy” with all 21 indicators showing a “Buy” rating. There are no indicators showing a “Sell” rating.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

With a score of “32”, the CNN’s Fear & Greed index is suggesting that the general market sentiment is “Fear”. This is an improvement from the “Extreme Fear” sentiment from the previous week.

Weekly Outlook

The bottom crossover of the MACD is yet completed. Based on the above, the S&P500 should continue to be Bearish entering the new week with the possibility of a reversal.

News and my thoughts from the past week (06Jul2026)

The ability to innovate does not always translate to the ability to lead or manage. It can be a lapse or a flaw. Knowing the difference is important.

Meta employees consumed 73.7 trillion AI tokens in a single month. That costs roughly $221 million a month, or $2.65 billion a year. The median Meta employee makes $388,200. At that rate, the token spend alone could pay for about 6,800 engineers for a full year. - X user Hedgie

Half of investors have reduced their portfolio risk, while 62% expect a recession and 71% worry market volatility will hurt their finances. Gen Z is the most concerned, citing job security and weaker savings, per Allianz. - X user Unusual Whales

Google reportedly doesn't have enough AI capacity to meet demand - Z user Kalshi

When AI becomes a commodity, what is the valuation of the AI, data center, energy, maintenance, supply chain and skilled labour?

insider sales

My Investing Muse (06Jul2026)

Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies

Microsoft reportedly plans to lay off over 5,000 employees - X user Kalshi Finance

Summary of layoff news (Gemini, Grok & Kimi)

The midyear turning point arrived with a heavy hand, casting a quiet chill across the global workforce as the first week of July drew to a close. Over 154,000 tech souls have now been cast adrift in the year’s opening act, swept away by a rising corporate tide that seeks to fund the hollow chambers of artificial intelligence and the sleek promise of automated pods.

Microsoft set the sombre tone, parting with 5,500 creators and advisors across sales, consulting, and its fading Xbox gaming empire. Nearby, the smoke cleared at British American Tobacco to reveal a staggering loss of 9,000 jobs—a fifth of its kingdom sacrificed to defend the bottom line against shifting cultural winds. Smaller houses felt the tremor too, as Elementor shattered 30% of its foundation to rebuild around automated code, and Nationwide cut 600 ties in the wake of a corporate marriage.

This is the repricing of human effort, a quiet symphony of downsizing where middle management fades, and the cold efficiency of the algorithm begins its long, unyielding march into the corridors of finance.

Leverage and risk

Recent data shows the US leads global equity leverage with $1.42 trillion in margin debt (May 2026), or roughly 1.8–2.0% of market cap, though the growth path included dips in February and March rather than consecutive increases. China follows at ~$416 billion (~2.6% of market cap), still below its 2015 peak. South Korea’s strict brokerage margin loans stand at ~$23–26 billion, but broader retail leveraged exposure (including bank credit) reaches ~$39 billion+, creating higher effective risk amid heavy concentration in Samsung and SK Hynix. Taiwan’s margin debt surged 160% to ~$19 billion. Japan and India show lower ratios (~0.5% and 0.3%).

A margin call occurs when falling stock prices reduce an investor’s equity below the broker’s maintenance requirement, triggering demands for more funds or forced sales. Overall, absolute leverage is highest in the US and China, while rapid growth and retail concentration elevate risks in Korea and Taiwan despite lower ratios. Leverage amplifies both gains and losses, warranting caution in overheated segments.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings and divest from businesses losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$

$Delta Air Lines(DAL)$