To The Moon

Color Legend

• 🔴 Red: Broke above/below the forecast range, or broke above/below the simulated strike alternative.

• 🟠 Orange: Briefly broke above/below the range, but closed within the strike range.

I. This Week's Simulation Results: ✅ All 4 Trades Profitable

• TSLA Sell Call: 8/7 expiry 340 — Note: Ample buffer on the upside.

• AAPL Sell Put: 8/14 expiry 290 — Note: No material negative surprises from earnings.

• AMD Sell Put: 8/14 expiry 400 — Note: Sustainable (roll to next week's 400 Put).

• INTC Sell Put: 8/14 expiry 90 — Note: Sustainable (roll to next week's 90 Put).
  The seller environment was broadly favorable this week, but there is an important risk reminder in the broader market section below.

II. Broader Market Assessment (SPY & QQQ)
Coordinated U.S.-Japan FX intervention + surging equities saw SPY cover an entire month's worth of gains in just Monday and Tuesday, hitting all-time highs, led by semiconductors and software. Wednesday and Thursday saw high-level consolidation.

• ⚠️ Important Reminder: This type of sector-driven short-squeeze rally is extremely rare — trillion-dollar companies can be used as market-lifting tools, and unexplained surges are not impossible. Those selling naked Calls must be diligent with stop-losses.

• Approach: The preliminary expectation is for continued sideways consolidation in August. Shareholders can sell Covered Calls; naked Call sellers must strictly manage risk. SPY remains suitable for ongoing Sell Put strategies.

III. Individual Stock Recap

Leading Weighted Names

• MSFT 🔴: Closed Thursday at 499.86, breaking above the forecast range, continuing to lead the market stabilization, with bullish call block buys. ⚠️ Be cautious of potential debt issuance at high levels following the massive rally in cloud names.

• NVDA 🔴: Closed Thursday at 219, with a high of 223 — breaking above the upper range bound (211). The primary driver of this week's rally, lifting the entire trading range to a higher level; institutional Sell Call sellers have been continuously rolling stop-losses. Bullish catalyst: Musk stated on SPCX's earnings call that future AI compute buildouts will exclusively use NVIDIA chips. Institutional block trade: 9/4-expiry 190 Sell Put.

• GOOGL 🔴: Gapped up on Wednesday, breaking above the range, then pulled back on news of technical guru Jeff Dean's departure to start a new venture. This week announced plans to issue up to $25 billion in debt, triggering higher long-end Treasury yields and a steepening yield curve.

• AMZN: Led gains last week, but this week Bezos began selling (planning to sell 15 million shares, ~$4 billion), capping the stock price.

• META: Consolidating sideways after a rebound from lows.

• AAPL: Fell on last Friday's earnings, stabilized this week; no material negatives from earnings — suitable for Sell Put.

• TSLA: Poor earnings, lacks a bullish catalyst, trading in normal volatility; resistance at 325/330/335. Simulation Sell Call at 340 has ample buffer. ⚠️ Still need to monitor stop-loss levels for naked Sell Calls.

Semiconductors

• AVGO: Closed Thursday at 420, one of this week's semiconductor leaders; expected to enter a stable range of 400–420.

• TSM: Normal gains, similar to SKHY; also a non-U.S. company in the coverage universe.

• AMD: Fell post-earnings (Q3 revenue guidance missed some investors' elevated expectations). The dip presents a good Sell Put opportunity — we placed deep OTM Sell Puts.

• INTC: Closed Thursday at 99.8, briefly broke above 100 mid-week, reclaiming the 20-day MA (97). Expected to oscillate in the 90–110 range, with a stronger bias → more favorable to sell Puts on dips within the range (which is exactly why we ran the simulation) — naked Sell Calls are not recommended.

Storage Sector (Collectively Entering Consolidation)

• Sector theme: All seven storage companies have now reported earnings, with many signing LTAs to stabilize pricing → storage prices will have difficulty surging, entering a range-bound consolidation phase. ⚠️ The aggressive growth era has passed; leveraged long positions are not advised at this stage.

• SKHY 🟠: Rebounded but with limited magnitude, still within range; pressured early in the week by SNDK earnings expectations, and later in the week by SNDK's post-earnings decline → dragging down SKHY in the same sector.

• MU: Rebounding from lows, similarly pressured by SNDK earnings.

• DRAM: Similarly, range-bound consolidation.

Others

• SPCX: Earnings dropped sharply, but two days later — with $100 billion in lock-up shares becoming available — the stock did not decline. Combined with Musk's endorsement on X of the view that the stock has bottomed, selling pressure should already be heavy, and upside is difficult — but the stock is well-suited for Sell Put strategies.

⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is a simulation recap and strategy discussion, provided for educational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Sell Puts/Calls carry assignment/exercise risk; naked selling carries asymmetric risk. Please strictly control position sizes and stop-losses. Investing involves risk.