To The Moon

Nov 2 – Nov 6 | US Market Watch 1. This Week's Market Overview Tech is shifting from chasing AI growth to testing profitability, and defensive sentiment is clearly rising. Last Friday, the Nasdaq fell 2.86% and the S&P 500 fell 1.82%. GOOGL and INTC were sold off after earnings, showing the market is no longer satisfied with AI revenue growth — it cares more about capex, cash flow, and forward guidance. Options are turning defensive too. QQQ and SPY saw big Put buying, and both are in negative Gamma territory, meaning swings could get bigger if the market falls. This week's three big variables: the US midterm elections, Apple and semiconductor earnings, and Friday's nonfarm payrolls. High oil prices could also add inflation pressure. The short-term focus isn't guessing the bottom — it'

1. Expected Move Pricing The options market is pricing Apple's expected move this week at ±4.74%, a range of about $328–361. Current IV is 31.47%, with an IV percentile of 88.45%, meaning options are relatively expensive before earnings. Key trading levels: $355–361 is major upside resistance. $342 is the short-term bull/bear line. $328–330 is key downside support. If the stock breaks outside the expected range after earnings, the actual move was bigger than options had priced. 2. Gamma Analysis AAPL is at $344, slightly above the Gamma flip point of $342.2. Net GEX is about +$17.9M / 1%, still in positive Gamma territory, which normally helps soften short-term swings, but it's very close to the flip point. On the upside, $350 is max pain, and $355 is the main Call wall. After a break abov

① What Happened Today Tech earnings blew up across the board. The market is shifting from chasing AI growth to questioning whether high valuations can actually deliver. Based on premarket data, QQQ is down about 2.5%, and the S&P 500 is down about 1%. Tech is the hardest hit: INTC -25%: PC demand worsened, and Q4 guidance came in far below expectations, dragging down AMD, DELL, and HPQ. AMZN -7%: AWS grew 39%, but missed big institutions' ~43% target, raising questions about AI investment returns. SNDK -8%: Revenue wasn't bad, but gross margin and future pricing power missed market expectations. RDDT -20%, RBLX -17%, TWLO -19%: Results or growth guidance disappointed, and the market's tolerance for growth stocks is falling. Also, an oil tanker attack in the Middle East and Houthi-relat

Core view: Intel's basics look strong, but the stock has already priced in some good news. After earnings, first watch whether $90 holds. Only a break above $95 gives it a chance at $100. If it breaks below $89.7, watch for a bigger drop. 1. Volatility Range Pricing Intel is around $93, above its 10-day average of $91 and 200-day average of $87, but still below its 20-day average of $99. That means short-term recovery, but medium-term upside pressure. Its 60-week average of $71 is a longer-term trend reference. The options market prices this week's implied move at about ±9.91%, a range of about $78–96. IV is 68.24%, with an IV percentile of 45.42%. That means volatility isn't at an extreme historic high, but IV can still drop fast after earnings and pressure option prices. Trading watch po

Core view: Before Amazon's earnings, implied volatility is high, meaning the market has already priced in a lot of earnings uncertainty. The stock is above its 60-day and 200-day averages but still below its 20-week average of $253. If it can't break above $265 after earnings, the stock may keep chopping. If it breaks below $238.5, watch for bigger downside swings. 1. Volatility Range Pricing Amazon is at $247, above its 200-day average of $243 and 60-day average of $239, but below its 20-week average of $253. That means there's medium-term support, but short-term upside faces pressure. Based on an expected move of 7.86%, the theoretical move is about $19.41, giving a range of about $228–266. Current IV is 48%, with an IV historical percentile of 98.8%, meaning option pricing is relatively

① What Happened Today Tech earnings triggered a selloff, and the market is starting to question whether AI spending can actually make money. GOOGL fell 11%: Search revenue grew 12%, below the 14.7% expected. AI search monetization is being questioned, dragging down tech sentiment. MSFT rose 2% then faded: Azure grew 48%, which is strong, but the market worries about future huge capex and possible equity financing. NOW fell 18%, FTNT fell 25%: Results missed, and software and cybersecurity got sold off. KLAC rose 3%: December quarter revenue guidance hit $4.7B, better than expected, showing semiconductor equipment demand still has support. Tonight's focus: AMZN earnings. The market will watch AWS growth, AI capex, and profitability to judge whether tech confidence can hold. ② What Money Is

1. Volatility Range Pricing: Market Expects About ±6% GOOGL is around $324, near its 60-week average of $323, but still below its 200-day average of $341 and 20-week average of $344. There's some short-term support, but upside still faces moving-average pressure. The options market's earnings implied range is $300–340, an expected move of about ±6.05%. IV percentile is 94%, meaning implied volatility is relatively high versus its recent history. If uncertainty fades after earnings, option prices could fall from an IV crush. Trading watch points: $340–344 is a key upside level. $300 is the downside support zone to watch. If the stock breaks outside the implied range, the actual move is bigger than what the market priced before earnings. 2. Gamma Analysis: $317.4 Is the Bull/Bear Line GOOGL'

① What Happened Today AI Compute: Google TPU Challenges Nvidia OpenAI reportedly plans to buy Google TPUs, and Oracle also plans to offer TPU cloud services starting in 2027. This could expand GOOGL's AI chip commercialization opportunity and change order expectations for NVDA and AVGO. Barclays likes the economics of Broadcom's TPU racks, but actual purchase size hasn't been announced. Power Equipment: AI Infrastructure Demand Is Strong VRT revenue beat big, and the stock rose 16%. Peers NVT rose 8% premarket, and ETN/PWR rose 4%. GEV rose 5% on strong orders, profit, and cash flow. Money is still watching power supply and cooling demand for AI data centers. Memory Chips: SK Hynix Strong, Sector Diverges SK Hynix beat expectations. DRAM prices rose, HBM demand is strong, and management sa

1. Volatility Range Pricing Microsoft is at $531, slightly above its 20-day average of $529, and above its 10-week average of $515 and 60-day average of $507.7. Short-term trend still has some support. The options market's implied range for this week is $496–553. IV percentile is 78.09%, meaning implied volatility is relatively high versus its recent history. If uncertainty fades after earnings, option prices could fall from an IV drop. Trading watch points: $550 is a key upside level. $500–508 is the downside support zone to watch. If the stock breaks outside the implied range, the actual move is bigger than what the market priced before earnings. 2. Gamma Analysis MSFT is at $531, above the Gamma Flip of $507.7. This week's net GEX is +$284.3M / 1%, a positive Gamma environment, which no

1 What Happened Today AI funding pressure is easing. Semiconductors are in focus, but money is still buying insurance. Anthropic filed its S-1 for an IPO, and the market's view on its revenue growth, customer expansion, and cash flow turned more positive. Add Broadcom getting about $63B in financing, Meta announcing a $95B equity financing plan, and news of AI compute leasing financing — worries about whether AI companies can keep raising money have eased a bit. QQQ closed up 1.1%, semis rose 2.9%, and optical modules and memory chips led. Supply chain news shows TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging quotes are being discussed for a 10% to 20% price hike, with equipment lead times extended to 6–8 months. That shows AI chip demand is still strong, but the capacity bottleneck is getting worse. Tom