To The Moon

Color Legend

• 🔴 Red: Broke above/below the forecast range, or broke above/below the simulated strike alternative.

• 🟠 Orange: Briefly broke above/below the range, but closed within the strike range.

I. This Week's Simulation Results: 1 Win, 3 Losses

COIN Sell Put, 8/28 expiry at 150, entry price 1.17, current price 0.68 — profitable.

INTC Sell Put, 8/28 expiry at 95, entry price 1.70, current price 5.10 — loss.

DELL Sell Put, 8/28 expiry at 410, entry price 3.16, current price 6.37 — loss.

NVDA Sell Put, 8/28 expiry at 200, entry price 0.85, current price 1.27 — loss.

Review: The broader market unexpectedly pulled back this week (short-squeeze fade + Treasury yield pressure), leaving Sell Puts generally in floating losses. However, all contracts expire at month-end (8/28) with strikes that have built-in safety margins. Time value remains, and if support holds, there is room for recovery (see INTC below — if assigned, can be converted to a Covered Call).

II. Broader Market Assessment (SPY & QQQ): Short-Squeeze Fade + Treasury Yield Pressure

SPY closed Thursday at 762.6, breaking below the forecast range of 768–784. Although volatility percentiles are low, the pullback was indeed unexpected.

Reasons: The early-August short-squeeze rally was overextended and lacked sustained industry-specific support. On the macro front, surging Treasury yields and rising crude oil prices acted as a double drag.

Outlook: SPY has near-term support at 760; if Treasury conditions worsen further, a drop to 750 is possible. The market is turning defensive; sellers should be mindful of volatility.

III. Individual Stock Recap

Weighted Names / Market Stabilizers

AAPL closed Thursday at 311.3, reaching the upper end of the range (298–313). After hitting 319 on Wednesday, it pulled back. This week's rebound helped stabilize the broader market, and it is expected to continue oscillating above 300.

TSLA closed Thursday at 345 (range 335–350). A rebound-driven oscillation helping support the market. Expected to continue grinding higher to fill the gap at 370 — Sell Put remains viable.

GOOGL closed Thursday at 340.67 (range 336–356), narrow consolidation.

AMZN closed Thursday at 260 (range 255–270), pulling back to the 20-day MA. Bezos selling pressure (planning to sell 15 million shares / $4 billion) is capping the stock.

META closed Thursday at 545.83, breaking below the range (569–610). The early-month short squeeze was unsustainable, and the failure to break above the 120-day MA sent it back into a downtrend consolidation.

MSFT closed Thursday at 481.15, slightly below the lower end of the range (482–508). Facing pullback pressure — not suitable for Sell Put in the near term.

AI / Semiconductors

NVDA closed Thursday at 216.85, slightly below the lower end of the range (217–233). Expected to drift toward 210 but not decline much further. Earnings after the close on 8/26 — overall range 200–240 consolidation.

AVGO closed Thursday at 364, breaking below the range (376–410), pressured by debt guarantee concerns. Watch whether it can hold above the 60-week MA at 350. Neither Sell Put nor Sell Call is suitable (risk of a sudden short squeeze).

AMD closed Thursday at 469.46, breaking below the range (482–547) and falling back below the 20-day MA. A further test of 450 support next week cannot be ruled out.

TSM closed Thursday at 416 (range 412–441), continuing to consolidate.

INTC closed Thursday at 92.13, breaking below the range (95–110). No specific negative catalyst — likely a pre-Triple-Witching open interest flush. Expected to remain below 100 next week. If assigned on the Sell Put, it can be converted to a Covered Call, or wait for a rebound to sell.

Storage (Hynix Buyback Provides Support, Collective Stabilization)

The theme: Hynix's $28.4 billion buyback launch is stabilizing the storage sector, with MU/SNDK/SKHY all stabilizing within their ranges.

SKHY closed Thursday at 165.67 (range 153–180), volatility declining. The buyback is steadying the price — expected to continue consolidating; Sell Put remains viable.

MU closed Thursday at 974.33 (range 907–1038), stable consolidation supported by the buyback effect.

SNDK closed Thursday at 1600 (range 1490–1790), also supported by the buyback, consolidating steadily.

Others

SPCX closed Thursday at 134 (range 130–150), weighed down by lock-up expiry selling pressure. The next lock-up expiry is on 9/9 — expected to continue oscillating below 150.

⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is a simulation recap and strategy discussion, provided for educational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Sell Puts/Calls carry assignment/exercise risk; naked selling carries asymmetric risk. Please strictly control position sizes and stop-losses. Investing involves risk.