To The Moon

HBM4 Shortage: A Structural Supply Squeeze

According to the Financial Times, the semiconductor industry is currently navigating its tightest DRAM market since 2017. (see below)

This has been driven by an unprecedented reallocation of wafer capacity toward High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) for AI accelerators.

Recent analysis indicates that finished DRAM inventories at industry leaders $Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.(SSNLF)$ Samsung and $SK hynix(SKHY)$ have fallen below 10 days of supply, a critical threshold that signals a severe physical shortage rather than a typical cyclical uptick.

This constraint is fundamentally structural - that is, the production of HBM4 consumes approx. 3x the wafer capacity of conventional DRAM, forcing manufacturers to divert resources away from standard memory used in PCs, laptops, and data centers.

The supply-demand imbalance is projected to persist through 2027 and potentially beyond, creating a multi-year environment where pricing power decisively shifts to suppliers.

Paradox of Falling Stock Prices

Despite this bullish fundamental backdrop, shares of key memory manufacturers like SKHY and $Micron Technology(MU)$ have experienced significant volatility and recent declines. (see below)

MU vs SKHY - 3 months stock price movement

Divergence between physical market tightness and equity performance is driven primarily by macroeconomic headwinds, including (a) surging US Treasury yields and (b) elevated oil prices.

They have compressed valuation multiples across the technology sector.

Furthermore, the market is grappling with profit-taking after a substantial rally.

It also faces concerns that AI model architectures may become more memory-efficient, potentially slowing the growth rate of demand even as absolute volumes rise. (see below)

These factors illustrate a classic "good fundamentals, bad tape" scenario, where near-term price action is dominated by (a) sentiment and (b) flow dynamics rather than underlying scarcity of the product.

MU & SKHY - Investment Options ?

From a mid-to-long term investment perspective, the structural shortage supports a compelling profitability thesis for both MU & SKHY, although their risk profiles differ markedly.

MU:

• Presents a value-oriented opportunity.

• Trading at a forward earnings multiple that appears disconnected from its multi-year revenue visibility and contracted backlog.

• It offers a margin of safety if the supercycle persists.

SKHY:

• In contrast, it offers a more concentrated bet on HBM dominance.

• With valuation metrics that price in sustained technology leadership and margin expansion through the end of the decade.

With both companies stand to benefit from (1) record pricing and (2) utilization rates, investors must weigh these fundamentals against the inherent cyclicality of the memory market and the potential for long-dated cash flow assumptions to face scrutiny.

Impact of AI Safety & "Pacing" Narratives

Recent calls by industry leaders such as Anthropic’s Dario Amodei and Elon Musk to "pace" or slow the development of frontier AI models has introduced a new layer of narrative risk to the sector.

On Sat, 12 Sep 2026, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei initiated a call for an industry-wide slowdown by publishing an essay titled "We Must Pace the Frontier". (see below)

Shortly after, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, xAI founder Musk, and Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis sequentially endorsed the framework throughout the day and evening.

While these comments have triggered immediate sentiment-driven sell-offs in hardware stocks, they do not currently reflect (1) a reduction in actual capital expenditure (capex) or (2) GPU orders from hyperscalers.

The AI-halt proposal focuses on (1) safety and (2) rate of capability improvement, rather than a halt to infrastructure build-outs.

This means the physical demand for HBM remains robust in the near term.

However, recent discussions remind investors that AI supply chain valuations depend on how long and fast technology adoption lasts, which adds volatility to an otherwise strong setup.

SKHY’s Technical Analysis.

To further ascertain HBM’s overall long-term vibrancy, a quick peep into SKHY’s technical indicators hopefully, could provide clues.

Due to limited real estate, will just focus on SKHY.

As SKHY only IPO in July 2026, its SMAs parameters will be 10-day, 20-day and 30-day.

(1) Simple Moving Average. (SMA).

On 14 Sep 2026, SKHY ended the day at $175.63 /share. This is slightly below its 10-day SMA ($176.92) but above its 20-day ($168.72) and 30-day ($162.24).

The SMAs exhibit a classic bullish stacked alignment (10-day > 20-day > 30-day).

The upward-sloping configuration indicates that SKHY maintains a positive medium-term trajectory, even as recent price pullback places the spot price slightly below the fast 10-day moving average.

Nevertheless, the broader uptrend remains intact.

(2) MACD.

Both MACD line (7.73) and Signal line (5.6) are ‘comfortably’ above the Zero line.

This positioning confirms that medium-to-long-term price momentum remains structurally positive and supportive of the broader uptrend.

Additionally, with the MACD line above the Signal line, it indicates that short-term buying momentum continues to outpace its moving average baseline, favouring ongoing upside continuation despite recent consolidation.

With divergence at a positive 2.13, it confirms that bullish momentum is active.

However, the flattening and slight contraction of the histogram bars suggest that the rate of acceleration has moderated, pointing toward short-term consolidation.

(3) RSI.

With 14-day RSI at 53.25, it places SKHY slightly above the neutral midpoint of 50, supporting a cautiously bullish interpretation and does not indicate an overbought market.

The reading suggests that buying pressure still has a modest edge, while the stock retains room to rise before reaching the traditionally overbought area near 70.

My viewpoints : (mine only)

To put things into perspective, current macroeconomic headwinds and changing AI architectures are generating near-term volatility and stock pullbacks.

Separately, severe physical shortage of HBM4 locks in multi-year pricing power for the memory sector.

Consequently, memory leaders (like SKHY, MU & remain worthwhile long-term investments as long as they capitalize on structural demand before technological shifts catch up. Agree ?

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