To The Moon

I think memory may be approaching a cyclical peak, but the evidence is not strong enough to call the top yet. Samsung’s record profit shows the underlying demand and pricing environment remain exceptionally strong. The warning sign is the second derivative: profit is still growing, but sequential growth has slowed sharply, while DRAM and NAND price increases are moderating. For cyclical stocks, markets usually price the turn before earnings actually fall. That explains why MU, SNDK and SK Hynix can sell off even when current profits look spectacular. My base case: memory fundamentals remain strong into 2027, especially HBM and AI-related demand, but valuations could become increasingly sensitive to any sign of slower pricing, capacity expansion or weaker AI capex. Record earnings do not ne

The indices: the selling stayed inside technology, so the Nasdaq fell while the Dow closed higher The three indices split on Thursday: the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell 1.25 per cent to 27,193.34, the steepest of them; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.47 per cent to 7,765.36; and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ rose 0.10 per cent to 51,231.60. The 10-year Treasury yield came back from 5.28 per cent to 5.23 per cent on the same day. Rates fell and equities fell with them, which is not the chain of cause and effect of recent days: what was repriced was the assumption about demand along the AI chain, and the discount rate had nothing to d

$Micron Technology(MU)$  $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$  $SK hynix(SKHY)$   Samsung just delivered a record quarter, with operating profit reportedly reaching around 107.4 trillion won. Yet memory stocks sold off on Thursday. SanDisk fell 4.90%, Micron dropped 4.79%, and SK Hynix lost 4.35%. At first glance, this seems contradictory. If memory demand is strong enough to generate record profits, why are investors selling? The answer may lie in what happens next, not what has already happened. 1. The market trades on expectations Stock prices reflect expectations about future earnings, not simply how much money a company made last quarter. Samsun

$Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.(SSNLF)$ Samsung Electronics has posted an astonishing 782.5% surge in preliminary third-quarter operating profit, reaching 107.4 trillion won (US$80.1 billion). In this article, we would like to share an in-depth equity valuation & beneficiary analysis for institutional investors and what it means for retail investors like us. 1. Decoding Samsung's Record-Breaking Quarter In October 2026, Samsung Electronics altered the financial landscape of technology by projecting a preliminary third-quarter operating profit of 107.4 trillion won ($80.1 billion). This staggering 782.5% year-over-year leap represents the first time in technological history that a single corporate entity has posted a quarterly operating profit

Samsung just delivered a number that would normally stop the market in its tracks. The world’s largest memory-chip maker estimates Q3 operating profit of 107.4 trillion won — roughly US$80 billion — up 782.5% from a year earlier. Revenue is estimated at 195 trillion won, up 126.6% YoY.  That’s an extraordinary result. But here’s the interesting part: The market isn’t reacting like this is a surprise. Samsung’s preliminary profit was only modestly above the LSEG SmartEstimate of 106.1 trillion won, while some other analyst estimates were actually higher. The full breakdown won’t arrive until October 29.  And that’s where the memory-stock debate gets interesting. 📈 The bull case Memory demand remains extremely strong. DRAM, NAND and HBM are all benefiting from tight supply and massive dema

The indices: all three fell back from record closes, and the Dow lost 0.66 per cent The three indices moved back from the previous day's record closes on Wednesday: the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ Average fell 0.66 per cent to 51,179.90, the largest decline; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.22 per cent to 7,801.77; and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite fell 0.22 per cent to 27,538.69. The pressure came from the bond market: the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.36 per cent at its intraday peak and closed at 5.28 per cent, while the 30-year touched 5.73 per cent and closed at 5.66 per cent. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's Septemb

Samsung just delivered a set of numbers that look almost unreal. For Q3 2026, the company expects revenue of about KRW 195 trillion and operating profit of roughly KRW 107.4 trillion, or around $80.2 billion, up about 783% year over year. The main driver is still AI: HBM, traditional DRAM and NAND are all benefiting from tight supply, giving memory makers exceptional pricing power. What is more interesting is the market reaction. Despite the record-level profit, Samsung shares barely moved and remain well below their June high. That suggests investors are no longer asking, “How much can Samsung earn this quarter?” The question has shifted to: How long can these margins last? That is now the key debate across the memory sector. Demand is still strong. AI servers continue to absorb HBM, serv

$Micron Technology(MU)$   Micron Technology (MU) stock has returned 557% over the twelve months, against 16.0% for the S&P 500. The gain came during a shortage of memory chips, and management said on its September 30 call that it cannot see when supply and demand will balance. Yet the stock has barely moved since that call, amid worries over chip cycles and margins. So how seriously should a Micron holder take those worries? Micron’s Gross Margin Has Nearly Doubled In A Year Seriously enough, because the profit Micron earns today is new. Its gross margin was 73% over the latest twelve months, against 37% a year earlier. The year before that it was 11.4%, and Micron lost money two and three years ago. On

The semiconductor industry has become the beating heart of the AI revolution, and few companies are benefiting more than $Micron Technology(MU)$ . Once viewed as a cyclical memory-chip manufacturer, Micron has transformed into one of Wall Street's most important AI infrastructure plays. Cover As Micron prepares to report its fiscal Q4 2026 earnings on September 30, expectations are sky-high. After a stunning year that saw the stock surge multiple-fold and its market value surpass the trillion-dollar mark, investors are now asking a simple but critical question: Can Micron continue to outperform, or are expectations finally too high? The Quarter Everyone Is Watching Micron enters earnings season with tremendous momentum. Earnings Day Has Arrived The

Memory Prices Up 500% — Bull Signal or Cost Warning? “Memory prices are up more than 500%.” That was enough to send memory stocks higher Thursday. $Micron Technology(MU)$   Micron gained 5.50%, SanDisk 6.21% and SK hynix 4.64%, while Intel jumped 7.67%. But there is an important detail investors shouldn’t overlook: The 500% figure describes what a buyer is paying — not necessarily what memory manufacturers are earning. $Intel(INTC)$   Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan was describing the severity of the memory-cost increase from a buyer’s perspective. Other industry pricing data show much more gradual quarter-to-quarter increases in server and mobile DRAM, so the exact product, starting point and time

$Micron Technology(MU)$   $SK hynix(SKHY)$   Micron Earnings Will be a Key Catalyst The biggest catalyst for the DRAM ETF will be the upcoming Micron earnings, which will provide more color about the industry. These earnings are important because it is the third-biggest player in the HBM industry after SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. It is also the biggest company in the fund. Estimates are that Micron Technology’s revenue and profitability growth accelerated in the fourth quarter. The average estimate is that its revenue surged to $51 billion in the quarter, up by 365% from a year earlier. Its earnings-per-share, on the other hand, i

$Micron Technology(MU)$   Investors are eagerly awaiting Micron Technology’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on September 30 to see whether the memory chip company continues to enjoy solid demand and pricing tailwinds. Ahead of Q4 FY26 earnings, BMO Capital analyst, Harsh Kumar, reiterated a Buy rating on MU stock with a price target of $1,300. The analyst is bullish on Micron, as he believes that “memory remains in a supercycle as demand trends continue to exceed supply through FY27.” Kumar ranks No. 9 among more than 12,500 analysts tracked on TipRanks. He has a 74% success rate, with an average return per rating of 46.9% over a one-year period. Kumar raised his Q4 FY26 revenue estimate by $2 billion. He also in

$SK hynix(SKHY)$ there's still room to grow

$Micron Technology(MU)$   Investors are eagerly awaiting Micron Technology’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on September 30 to see whether the memory chip company continues to enjoy solid demand and pricing tailwinds.  Ahead of Q4 FY26 earnings, BMO Capital analyst reiterated a Buy rating on MU stock with a price target of $1,300. The analyst is bullish on Micron, as he believes that “memory remains in a supercycle as demand trends continue to exceed supply through FY27.” Kumar ranks No. 9 among more than 12,500 analysts tracked on TipRanks. He has a 74% success rate, with an average return per rating of 46.9% over a one-year period. Kumar raised his Q4 FY26 revenue estimate by $2 billion. He also increased

Societe Generale has further expanded its US Stock 5x DLC shelf beyond the Magnificent 7 with a new $Micron Technology(MU)$ 5x Long DLC (OLUW), which has started trading on 25th September. This expansion to 5x Micron DLCs complements the existing 3x Long and Short Micron DLCs range to offer investors more choices in terms of leverage factors. With up to 5x leveraged and inverse exposure to Micron's daily percentage performance, investors can express their bullish or bearish views to capture opportunities in both directions of the market. In addition to the newly listed $Applied Materials(AMAT)$ , $Intel(INTC)$ , and $SanDisk C

$SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ as i predicted yesterday.  Liquidity sucked in and sucked dry.  Follow to find out weekly range  Enter 1600 this week 

Memory prices up over 500%. Does that still count as good news? A cycle view, and how I trade it with sell puts Written Thursday, 24 Sept (SGT). First, is the 500% number real? Mostly, yes. It depends on which chip and which price you look at. For the newest standard memory, DDR5 is up nearly 500% year on year. The spot market is even more extreme: DRAM spot prices have surged nearly 700% over the past year, according to a Bloomberg report from July. Contract prices, which is what big buyers actually pay, moved in huge quarterly steps. TrendForce measured conventional DRAM contract prices up 93% to 98% quarter over quarter in Q1 2026, with many DDR5 SKUs up 3.5 to 4 times and DDR4 kits roughly doubling. Even after all of that, prices were still rising in August. PC DRAM averaged a record $

Memory stocks have been one of the hottest parts of the AI trade, but Michael Burry is leaning the other way. Burry has continued to add to his bearish exposure on $Micron Technology(MU), even as DRAM pricing remains firm and AI-related demand stays strong. What makes the trade interesting is the timing: he is not shorting memory because the current fundamentals look weak. He appears to be betting that today’s strength eventually creates tomorrow’s oversupply. That is the core debate in memory right now. The bullish case is straightforward. AI servers need more HBM, more server DRAM and more enterprise SSD capacity. Hyperscalers are still expanding infrastructure, memory content per server keeps rising, and supply remains tight in several key categories. In that environment, strong pricing

Apple’s latest Mac update is about more than faster hardware. The new Mac mini and Mac Studio are being positioned as machines that can run AI agents, large language models and enterprise workflows locally. The high-end Mac Studio can support up to 512GB of unified memory, while multiple Macs can be linked together for distributed inference. Apple has even demonstrated four Mac Studios running a trillion-parameter model using a standard wall outlet. The more interesting part is how Apple is selling the economics. Cloud AI usually charges by usage. The more tokens a company consumes, the more it pays. Apple’s pitch is different: buy the hardware once, then keep running workloads locally without paying for every model call. That matters when AI usage becomes frequent. If an enterprise agent

US stocks surged today as a wave of positive news hit simultaneously, causing several major risk concerns that had previously weighed on the market to subside: 1) Signs of de-escalation in the Middle East. Supply concerns regarding the Strait of Hormuz eased and signs of shipping recovery emerged; the market began pricing in a reduction of the Middle East risk premium. 2) A window for renewed US-Iran negotiations. Trump expressed willingness to meet the Iranian president during the UN General Assembly; the market began betting on a diplomatic path reopening, significantly cooling expectations of further escalation in the Middle East crisis. 3) A sharp drop in oil prices. Brent crude briefly fell below $100 intraday, while WTI dropped to around $96. Lower oil prices offered a temporary repr

The indices: the selling stayed inside technology, so the Nasdaq fell while the Dow closed higher The three indices split on Thursday: the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell 1.25 per cent to 27,193.34, the steepest of them; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.47 per cent to 7,765.36; and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ rose 0.10 per cent to 51,231.60. The 10-year Treasury yield came back from 5.28 per cent to 5.23 per cent on the same day. Rates fell and equities fell with them, which is not the chain of cause and effect of recent days: what was repriced was the assumption about demand along the AI chain, and the discount rate had nothing to d

I think memory may be approaching a cyclical peak, but the evidence is not strong enough to call the top yet. Samsung’s record profit shows the underlying demand and pricing environment remain exceptionally strong. The warning sign is the second derivative: profit is still growing, but sequential growth has slowed sharply, while DRAM and NAND price increases are moderating. For cyclical stocks, markets usually price the turn before earnings actually fall. That explains why MU, SNDK and SK Hynix can sell off even when current profits look spectacular. My base case: memory fundamentals remain strong into 2027, especially HBM and AI-related demand, but valuations could become increasingly sensitive to any sign of slower pricing, capacity expansion or weaker AI capex. Record earnings do not ne

$Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.(SSNLF)$ Samsung Electronics has posted an astonishing 782.5% surge in preliminary third-quarter operating profit, reaching 107.4 trillion won (US$80.1 billion). In this article, we would like to share an in-depth equity valuation & beneficiary analysis for institutional investors and what it means for retail investors like us. 1. Decoding Samsung's Record-Breaking Quarter In October 2026, Samsung Electronics altered the financial landscape of technology by projecting a preliminary third-quarter operating profit of 107.4 trillion won ($80.1 billion). This staggering 782.5% year-over-year leap represents the first time in technological history that a single corporate entity has posted a quarterly operating profit

$Micron Technology(MU)$  $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$  $SK hynix(SKHY)$   Samsung just delivered a record quarter, with operating profit reportedly reaching around 107.4 trillion won. Yet memory stocks sold off on Thursday. SanDisk fell 4.90%, Micron dropped 4.79%, and SK Hynix lost 4.35%. At first glance, this seems contradictory. If memory demand is strong enough to generate record profits, why are investors selling? The answer may lie in what happens next, not what has already happened. 1. The market trades on expectations Stock prices reflect expectations about future earnings, not simply how much money a company made last quarter. Samsun

The indices: all three fell back from record closes, and the Dow lost 0.66 per cent The three indices moved back from the previous day's record closes on Wednesday: the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ Average fell 0.66 per cent to 51,179.90, the largest decline; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.22 per cent to 7,801.77; and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite fell 0.22 per cent to 27,538.69. The pressure came from the bond market: the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.36 per cent at its intraday peak and closed at 5.28 per cent, while the 30-year touched 5.73 per cent and closed at 5.66 per cent. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's Septemb

Samsung just delivered a set of numbers that look almost unreal. For Q3 2026, the company expects revenue of about KRW 195 trillion and operating profit of roughly KRW 107.4 trillion, or around $80.2 billion, up about 783% year over year. The main driver is still AI: HBM, traditional DRAM and NAND are all benefiting from tight supply, giving memory makers exceptional pricing power. What is more interesting is the market reaction. Despite the record-level profit, Samsung shares barely moved and remain well below their June high. That suggests investors are no longer asking, “How much can Samsung earn this quarter?” The question has shifted to: How long can these margins last? That is now the key debate across the memory sector. Demand is still strong. AI servers continue to absorb HBM, serv

Samsung just delivered a number that would normally stop the market in its tracks. The world’s largest memory-chip maker estimates Q3 operating profit of 107.4 trillion won — roughly US$80 billion — up 782.5% from a year earlier. Revenue is estimated at 195 trillion won, up 126.6% YoY.  That’s an extraordinary result. But here’s the interesting part: The market isn’t reacting like this is a surprise. Samsung’s preliminary profit was only modestly above the LSEG SmartEstimate of 106.1 trillion won, while some other analyst estimates were actually higher. The full breakdown won’t arrive until October 29.  And that’s where the memory-stock debate gets interesting. 📈 The bull case Memory demand remains extremely strong. DRAM, NAND and HBM are all benefiting from tight supply and massive dema

$Micron Technology(MU)$   Micron Technology (MU) stock has returned 557% over the twelve months, against 16.0% for the S&P 500. The gain came during a shortage of memory chips, and management said on its September 30 call that it cannot see when supply and demand will balance. Yet the stock has barely moved since that call, amid worries over chip cycles and margins. So how seriously should a Micron holder take those worries? Micron’s Gross Margin Has Nearly Doubled In A Year Seriously enough, because the profit Micron earns today is new. Its gross margin was 73% over the latest twelve months, against 37% a year earlier. The year before that it was 11.4%, and Micron lost money two and three years ago. On

The semiconductor industry has become the beating heart of the AI revolution, and few companies are benefiting more than $Micron Technology(MU)$ . Once viewed as a cyclical memory-chip manufacturer, Micron has transformed into one of Wall Street's most important AI infrastructure plays. Cover As Micron prepares to report its fiscal Q4 2026 earnings on September 30, expectations are sky-high. After a stunning year that saw the stock surge multiple-fold and its market value surpass the trillion-dollar mark, investors are now asking a simple but critical question: Can Micron continue to outperform, or are expectations finally too high? The Quarter Everyone Is Watching Micron enters earnings season with tremendous momentum. Earnings Day Has Arrived The

HBM4 Shortage: A Structural Supply Squeeze According to the Financial Times, the semiconductor industry is currently navigating its tightest DRAM market since 2017. (see below) This has been driven by an unprecedented reallocation of wafer capacity toward High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) for AI accelerators. Recent analysis indicates that finished DRAM inventories at industry leaders $Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.(SSNLF)$ Samsung and $SK hynix(SKHY)$ have fallen below 10 days of supply, a critical threshold that signals a severe physical shortage rather than a typical cyclical uptick. This constraint is fundamentally structural - that is, the production of HBM4 consumes approx. 3x the wafer capacity of conven

Memory stocks have been one of the hottest parts of the AI trade, but Michael Burry is leaning the other way. Burry has continued to add to his bearish exposure on $Micron Technology(MU), even as DRAM pricing remains firm and AI-related demand stays strong. What makes the trade interesting is the timing: he is not shorting memory because the current fundamentals look weak. He appears to be betting that today’s strength eventually creates tomorrow’s oversupply. That is the core debate in memory right now. The bullish case is straightforward. AI servers need more HBM, more server DRAM and more enterprise SSD capacity. Hyperscalers are still expanding infrastructure, memory content per server keeps rising, and supply remains tight in several key categories. In that environment, strong pricing

Memory prices up over 500%. Does that still count as good news? A cycle view, and how I trade it with sell puts Written Thursday, 24 Sept (SGT). First, is the 500% number real? Mostly, yes. It depends on which chip and which price you look at. For the newest standard memory, DDR5 is up nearly 500% year on year. The spot market is even more extreme: DRAM spot prices have surged nearly 700% over the past year, according to a Bloomberg report from July. Contract prices, which is what big buyers actually pay, moved in huge quarterly steps. TrendForce measured conventional DRAM contract prices up 93% to 98% quarter over quarter in Q1 2026, with many DDR5 SKUs up 3.5 to 4 times and DDR4 kits roughly doubling. Even after all of that, prices were still rising in August. PC DRAM averaged a record $

Apple’s latest Mac update is about more than faster hardware. The new Mac mini and Mac Studio are being positioned as machines that can run AI agents, large language models and enterprise workflows locally. The high-end Mac Studio can support up to 512GB of unified memory, while multiple Macs can be linked together for distributed inference. Apple has even demonstrated four Mac Studios running a trillion-parameter model using a standard wall outlet. The more interesting part is how Apple is selling the economics. Cloud AI usually charges by usage. The more tokens a company consumes, the more it pays. Apple’s pitch is different: buy the hardware once, then keep running workloads locally without paying for every model call. That matters when AI usage becomes frequent. If an enterprise agent

We have a cumulative surge of 500% in memory contract prices which span across DRAM, NAND Flash, and High Bandwidth Memory (HBM). This has transformed the semiconductor market into an extraordinary structural expansion. In the article we would like to discuss how to navigate the 500% memory supercycle, in terms of valuation, risks and what are some of the top stock picks investors can look into. 1. A 500% PRICE SURGE: IS IT STILL GOOD NEWS? In traditional memory cycles, a 500% rise in dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) or NAND Flash contract prices signalled an imminent market top. Historically, such violent price spikes triggered demand destruction among consumer electronics original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), rapidly followed by aggressive overexpansion of capital expenditures by m

The three US indices closed Friday almost where they started. The $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ fell 0.18 per cent to 51,682.64, down 95.40 points on the day; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed 0.17 per cent higher at 7,650.50, up 12.74 points; and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite closed 0.39 per cent higher at 26,522.54. It was a triple-witching day, with stock options, index futures and index options all expiring together and an index rebalancing on top, so volume was always going to be heavy. The calm at index level says very little; what was actually happening was money moving between sectors. The split between the indices is par

Wall Street staged a sharp rebound on September 17, just one day after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained 1.14% to 7,637.76, while the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite jumped 1.69% to 26,418.30, giving both indexes their strongest session in roughly six weeks. The $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ rose 0.61% to 51,778.04, while the Russell 2000 added about 0.6%. The rebound came despite the Fed raising its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% and signaling that more tightening could follow. Instead, investors found relief in two developments: T

Memory Prices Up 500% — Bull Signal or Cost Warning? “Memory prices are up more than 500%.” That was enough to send memory stocks higher Thursday. $Micron Technology(MU)$   Micron gained 5.50%, SanDisk 6.21% and SK hynix 4.64%, while Intel jumped 7.67%. But there is an important detail investors shouldn’t overlook: The 500% figure describes what a buyer is paying — not necessarily what memory manufacturers are earning. $Intel(INTC)$   Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan was describing the severity of the memory-cost increase from a buyer’s perspective. Other industry pricing data show much more gradual quarter-to-quarter increases in server and mobile DRAM, so the exact product, starting point and time

The emerging partnership framework between $SK hynix(SKHY)$ SK Hynix and $Intel(INTC)$ Intel Foundry represents a strategic shift in the semiconductor ecosystem, moving from modular component sourcing to deep hardware co-optimization. In this article, we would like to discuss how this collaboration can offer a critical proof-of-concept for Intel advanced packaging and foundry services, creating a pathway to capture non-wafer value even if front-end node transitions face steep competition. 1. The Structural Shift: Why Memory and Logic Are Merging The rapid scale of Large Language Models (LLMs) and real-time inference engines has exposed the limitations of traditional chip architecture. In standard computin

The three indices closed Wednesday along two different paths. The $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ fell 1.21 per cent to 51,461.90, losing 631.21 points on the day; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed 0.45 per cent lower at 7,551.81, a third consecutive fall; and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite barely moved, closing 0.01 per cent lower at 25,978.42. The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points that afternoon. All three had been higher before it did, and the turn began with the decision and the press conference. The target range for the federal funds rate went up to 3.75-4 per cent, from 3.5 per cent to 3.75 per cent before, with

One of today’s more interesting semiconductor stories is not about a new GPU or a new AI model. Reuters reported that SK hynix is in exploratory talks with Intel about producing memory chips in the U.S. for the first time. One option under discussion is for SK hynix to use part of Intel’s Ohio fab capacity. Another possibility is a joint structure involving SK hynix, Intel and potentially major cloud customers. The talks are still at an early stage, and there is no final decision yet on product scope, investment size or structure. What makes this interesting is that this is not simply another “chipmaker builds in America” story. SK hynix already has a U.S. footprint, including its advanced AI-memory packaging project in Indiana. If front-end memory production also moves closer to U.S. cust