To The Moon

I. Key Events

• Wednesday FOMC: Market Consensus Expects a "Dovish Hike"
  The Fed will announce its rate decision at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday. The market is highly consensus-aligned in expecting a dovish hike — a 25bp increase without signaling a future rate path. → If delivered: the negative is exhausted, and risk appetite may recover. But such a unanimous expectation also means the positive is already priced in — beware of "buy the rumor, sell the fact" gap-up-and-sell-off dynamics. Combined with the 9/18 Triple Witching convergence, directional flexibility is limited this week.

• SK Hynix × Intel: In Talks for First U.S.-Based Memory Chip Production
  The news pushed INTC and Hynix higher pre-market, before Hynix clarified that "no conclusion has been reached," trimming gains. For INTC, watch the 104 resistance level — before a breakout, treat this as a news pulse; don't chase.

• Crude Oil Breaks Below 5-Day MA, Falls Back Below 100
  Further observation is needed on whether it breaks below 96: holding 96 would make a rebound likely; breaking below would deepen the pullback. → This corroborates yesterday's signal of energy stocks being collectively capped by Sell Calls (institutions betting oil's upside is limited).

II. Notable Block Trades

Energy Stocks Collectively Capped by Sell Calls

• CVX (Chevron)$CVX 20261218 250.0 CALL$ Sold the 2026-12-18 expiry 250 Call, volume 10,000 contracts, notional $2.81 million. Betting oil's upside is limited after the spike — capping and collecting premium.

• XOM (Exxon Mobil) $XOM 20270319 200.0 CALL$ Sold the 2027-03-19 expiry 200 Call, volume 6,000 contracts, notional $2.67 million. Medium-to-long-term capping of energy upside.

• OXY (Occidental Petroleum) $OXY 20260925 65.0 CALL$ Sold the 2026-09-25 expiry 65 Call, volume 3,624 contracts, notional $271,800. Near-month capping, aligning with the oil pullback expectation.

Support Levels Being Taken by Sell Puts

• SKHY (SK Hynix ADR) $SKHY 20261218 170.0 PUT$ Sold the 2026-12-18 expiry 170 Put, volume 2,000 contracts, notional $3.82 million (premium per contract $19.10, IV elevated). Taking assignment below the 170 support, consistent with the 170 gamma wall from GEX analysis.

• XBI (Biotech ETF)$XBI 20260925 145.0 PUT$ Sold the 2026-09-25 expiry 145 Put, three trades in the same second totaling 7,500 contracts, notional $525,000. Collecting premium below 145 before the close, betting it won't break down.

• CRWV (CoreWeave) $CRWV 20280121 60.0 PUT$ Sold the 2028-01-21 expiry 60 Put, volume 1,500 contracts, notional $2.1045 million. A 16-month ultra-long-dated, deep OTM position — long-term bet it won't break below 60, willing to take assignment at that level.

One-sentence read: A seller-dominated day — energy upside capped (CVX/XOM/OXY Sell Calls), support levels taken (SKHY/XBI/CRWV Sell Puts). Institutions are collecting premium on both sides of "oil pullback + individual stock ranges," consistent with the "converge, stay put" market tone ahead of the FOMC.

Today's one-sentence approach: The eve of dovishness, with consensus aligned → handle as "negative exhausted but don't chase highs," guarding against buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact. Under Triple Witching convergence, range/seller premium collection dominates (referencing block trades: SKHY 170, XBI 145 support; energy Sell Calls capping). Watch INTC's 104 resistance and oil's 96 support — if broken, adjust positions.

⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is a pre-market information summary and strategy discussion, provided for educational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Sell Puts/Calls carry assignment/exercise risk; naked selling carries asymmetric risk. Only operate with a willingness to hold the underlying at the strike price, manage position sizes, and set stop-losses. Investing involves risk.