To The Moon

I. Key Events

Fed Delivers 25bp September Hike; Dot Plot Signals Room for More Hikes This Year
The federal funds target range rose to 3.75%–4.00%, the first increase since July 2023. The median dot plot shows a year-end 2026 rate of 4.1%. Historical patterns suggest IT sector outperformance in a shallow hiking environment.

Crude Oil: Record Inventory Draws, But Prices Pull Back Sharply
Global oil inventories are declining at a record pace, yet crude oil pulled back sharply on both Wednesday and Thursday, with front-month WTI breaking below its 10-day MA. The divergence between fundamentals and price is worth noting.

NBis: GPU Cloud Services Raise Prices Across the Board by ~20%
Effective October 1, NBis GPU cloud services are raising prices across the board by approximately 20%, sending the stock up 10% pre-market. CRWV initially rose then fell after announcing a $3 billion convertible senior notes offering.

II. Notable Block Trades

"Hedge the Event, Buy AI, Sell the Floor"
On the eve of the FOMC (9/17) and Triple Witching (9/18), institutions bought approximately $52.07 million in event-window protection and AI-directional Calls, while selling approximately $49.30 million in far-month deep OTM risk for premium collection. With VIX at just 16.7, it was treated as "cheap convexity" and swept up in bulk. Directionally neutral, structurally extreme.

Buy Side

Buy · Event-Window Index Hedge | Premium: $11.12 million

• QQQ (Nasdaq ETF) $QQQ 20260925 700.0 PUT$  bought the 2026-09-25 expiry 700 Put, volume 10,000 contracts.

• SPY (S&P ETF)$SPY 20261002 747.0 PUT$ bought the 2026-10-02 expiry 747 Put (sweep order).

Buy · AI/Hardware Direction | Premium: $31.18 million

• CRWV $CRWV 20270319 110.0 CALL$  bought the 2027-03 expiry 110 Call, notional $14.03 million (largest buy order of the day).

• NVDA $NVDA 20261009 215.0 CALL$  bought ATM Call: bought the 2026-10-09 expiry 215 Call, volume 5,999 contracts.

• AMD $AMD 20261002 520.0 CALL$  bought ATM Call: bought the 2026-10-02 expiry 520 Call, volume 2,000 contracts.

Buy · Volatility Convexity | Premium: $9.53 million

• VIX $VIX 20261216 22.0 CALL$  bought the 2026-12-16 expiry 22 Call, three trades totaling 45,000 contracts.

Buy · Energy Lottery Ticket | Premium: $250,000

• XLE $XLE 20261016 57.0 PUT$  bought the 2026-10-16 expiry 57 Put (deep OTM speculation).

Sell Side

Sell · Cap and Collect Rent | Premium: $29.62 million

• SPCX sold the 2027-03 expiry 185 Call, notional $26.29 million (more than half of the day's total seller premium).

• KRE $KRE 20261120 73.0 CALL$ sold 73 Call / XLF$XLF 20261120 60.0 CALL$ sold 60 Call / AMD $AMD 20261120 580.0 CALL$sold 560 Call.

Sell · Floor Support | Premium: $12.33 million

• AAPL$AAPL 20270917 310.0 PUT$  sold the 2027-09 expiry 310 Put, notional $10.53 million (one-year term).

• MSFT $MSFT 20261030 435.0 PUT$sold 435 Put / XLK t $XLK 20261120 175.0 PUT$sold 175 Put.

Sell · Volatility Premium Collection | Premium: $1.57 million

• VIX sold the 2027-02 expiry 15 Put.

• VXX sold the 2026-11-20 expiry 15 Put.

What the Buyers Are Doing

Event-Window Insurance, Not Crash Insurance
QQQ 700 Put and SPY 747 Put are both near-ATM, expiring to precisely cover FOMC → Triple Witching → early October. SPY used sweep orders (aggressively taking liquidity), showing clear urgency. What they're buying is "don't let anything happen these next few days."

Short-Term AI Beta Chase + CRWV Long-Term Conviction
NVDA / AMD / TSLA are all ATM, October expiries = short-term AI chase. CRWV, by contrast — 18-month duration, +30% OTM, $14.03 million — is a long-term conviction trade. This directly conflicts with the previous day's CRWV seller spread (sell 55 Put / sell 97–135 Call). Bulls and bears on the same ticker are refusing to yield to each other.

Sweeping Up Cheap Convexity
With VIX at 16.7, buying the December 22 Call (+32% spike), 45,000 contracts, $9.53 million — consistent with the earlier 10/21 28 Call. Betting on one volatility event before year-end (FOMC path, 11/3 midterms, Anthropic IPO are all within the window).

What the Sellers Are Doing

SPCX: A Single $26.29 Million Order
Sold the 2027-03 expiry 185 Call (+23% OTM). Combined with the earlier 9/18 155 Sell Call, this is a consistent "cap the upside" view or large-scale covered call monetization — the heaviest single view of the day.

One-Year Floor Order
AAPL sold the 2027-09 expiry 310 Put (-7%), collecting $10.53 million = institutions publicly declaring "I'm willing to take assignment at 310 for a year."

Sector Capping
KRE 73, XLF 60 (banks), AMD 560 (short-term) — same logic as the energy trio (CVX 250 / XOM 200 / OXY 65) Sell Calls from a few days ago.

⚠️ The above is a pre-market information summary and strategy discussion, provided for educational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Sell Puts/Calls carry assignment/exercise risk; naked selling carries asymmetric risk. Only operate with a willingness to hold the underlying at the strike price, manage position sizes, and set stop-losses. Investing involves risk.