For me, the 10-year Treasury at 5.1% is already a level where I start redoing the equity math. At 5.25%, I would become more selective on high-valuation growth stocks, because the risk-free alternative becomes increasingly attractive and higher discount rates put more pressure on valuations.
If the 10-year approaches 5.5% without a corresponding acceleration in earnings growth, I would favour stronger cash flows, reasonable valuations and balance-sheet quality rather than chasing momentum.
The key question is why yields are rising. Strong economic growth accompanied by stronger earnings is much easier for equities to absorb than a rise driven mainly by persistent inflation, Fed tightening expectations and Treasury supply.
So my levels are: 5.25% = reassess; 5.5% = much higher hurdle for equities.
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