To The Moon

1️⃣ Why am I making this trade now?

I have been doing wheel strategy on this counter for a long time. Collecting premium has always been the priority in trading this counter. The shares that i hold for this counter is fully covered at this point in time. I have 50 contracts expiring this weekend at strikes 14 and 14.5. So i am selling covered call at $14 in anticipation that the underlying will not shoot past these prices that will result in assignment (meaning selling the shares at the strikes indicated). Selling this covered call let me collect $740 with an expiration of approximately 3 weeks. 

2️⃣ What's my plan from here?

The stock bottomed earlier this year in February and climbed to a recent high of 16 before coming down to hit $9 again. The downtrend has since been broken after 19 August. I am not expecting it to spike up unless there is an announcement of an AI deal with one of the reputable tenants. Hence, will continue selling covered calls to collect premium while also selling cash secured put at lower prices as well. Current GEX analysis shows a huge call wall at $13.5, which corresponds to the recent resistant band between $13.50-$14. With the combination of short calls and short puts, it artificially forms a covered strangle that allows me to squeeze premium from it. 

While the counter used to be heavily tied to the movement of BTC, it has recently moved off quite a bit with the AI partnerships announcements. My opinion is BTC should have bottomed at 57k and we are much nearer to the next halving than the past halving. Not gonna be exceptionally bullish, but we should see price support around $70k for btc, hence supporting the price of MARA at around $9-$10. 

For now, i have cash secured put positions at around $11-$12 and also various covered call positions between $13-$15 expiring on various fridays in the next few weeks. Can't predict which way it will go because even Fred Thiel himself sold 1 day earlier at $11+ before the spike to $13+, so i'm not going to pretend that I'm smarter than the CEO himself. 

Volatility will always be there for this stock and its always not gonna look good because the CEO and CFO themselves don't even have conviction in holding the stock while selling huge amount of stocks every month. Treat this volatility as our friend and milk the premiums as much as we can. Earnings season will be late October, so just be more aware of the volatility spikes near earnings. What Fred Thiel will announce during earnings or their guidance in the business model going forward will likely cause large movement in price, however, do note that AI infrastructure takes time to build, revenue takes time to recognise and they probably will not moon in terms of price in this short period of time. Let’s ride this together and in my opinion, we still got quite some runway for us to keep milking the premium. Just for sharing, not financial advice.